Dealing with locally-driven degradation: A quick start option under REDD+

The paper reviews a number of challenges associated with reducing degradation and its related emissions through national approaches to REDD+ under UNFCCC policy. It proposes that in many countries, it may in the short run be easier to deal with the kinds of degradation that result from locally driven community over-exploitation of forest for livelihoods, than from selective logging or fire control. Such degradation is low-level, but chronic, and is experienced over very large forest areas. Community forest management programmes tend to result not only in reduced degradation, but also in forest enhancement; moreover they are often popular, and do not require major political shifts. In principle these approaches therefore offer a quick start option for REDD+. Developing reference emissions levels for low-level locally driven degradation is difficult however given that stock losses and gains are too small to be identified and measured using remote sensing, and that in most countries there is little or no forest inventory data available. We therefore propose that forest management initiatives at the local level, such as those promoted by community forest management programmes, should monitor, and be credited for, only the net increase in carbon stock over the implementation period, as assessed by ground level surveys at the start and end of the period. This would also resolve the problem of nesting (ensuring that all credits are accounted for against the national reference emission level), since communities and others at the local level would be rewarded only for increased sequestration, while the national reference emission level would deal only with reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation.     

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.     

Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular hydrogen could influence atmospheric chemistry. This paper combines a global energy system model and a global atmospheric model to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. We found that emissions of molecular hydrogen may range from 0.2 up to 10% (or 25-167 Tg hydrogen/yr) for a global hydrogen energy system. The lower end of this range would in fact be equal to current emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Hydrogen energy use leads to a clear decrease in emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide, but large-scale hydrogen production from coal may lead to net increase in emissions of nitrous oxide and volatile organic compound. Compared to a reference scenario, this would lead to positive impacts on surface concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and ozone. However, if hydrogen leakage would not be minimised it leads to an increase in methane lifetimes and a decrease in stratospheric ozone concentrations.     

Trace element depth profiles in presolar silicon carbide grains

Abstract– We have analyzed eleven presolar SiC grains from the Murchison meteorite using time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry. The Si isotopic compositions of the grains indicate that they are probably of an AGB star origin. The average abundances of Mg, Fe, Ca, Al, Ti, and V are strongly influenced by their condensation behavior into SiC in circumstellar environments. Depth profiles of Li, B, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, and Fe in the SiC grains show that trace elements are not always homogenously distributed. In approximately half of the SiC grains studied here, the trace element distributions can be explained by condensation processes around the grains’ parent stars. These grains appear to have experienced only minimal processing before their arrival in the presolar molecular cloud, possibly due to short residence times in the interstellar medium. The remaining SiC grains contained elevated abundances of several elements within their outer 200 nm, which is attributed to the implantation of energetic ions accelerated by shockwaves in the interstellar medium. These grains may have spent a longer period of time in this region, hence increasing the probability of them passing through a shockfront. Distinct groups of presolar SiC grains whose residence times in the interstellar medium differ are consistent with previous findings based on noble gas studies, although some grains may also have been shielded from secondary alteration by protective outer mantles.     

Magnetic fields and radio polarization of barred galaxies

In order to simulate evolution of a large-scale magnetic field in a barred galaxy possessing a gaseous halo we apply a three-dimensional (3D) MHD numerical model. We solve a induction equation using a time-dependent velocity field of molecular gas resulting from self-consistent 3D N-body simulations of a galactic disk. The gaseous halo rotates differentially co-rotating with the disk. In our model we introduce the dynamo process causing the amplification of the magnetic field as well as the formation of field structures high above the galactic disk. The simulated magnetic fields are used to construct the models of a high-frequency (Faraday rotation-free) polarized radio emission that accounts for effects of projection and limited resolution, and is thus suitable for direct comparison with observations. We found that the resultant magnetic field correctly reproduces the observed structures of polarization B-vectors, forming coherent patterns well aligned with spiral arms and with the bar. The process initializing a wave-like behavior of the magnetic field, which efficiently forms magnetic maxima between the spiral arms, is demonstrated. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Accurate Ocean Bottom Seismometer Positioning Method Inspired by Multilateration Technique

The positioning of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) is a key step in the processing flow of OBS data, especially in the case of self popup types of OBS instruments. The use of first arrivals from airgun shots, rather than relying on the acoustic transponders mounted in the OBS, is becoming a trend and generally leads to more accurate positioning due to the statistics from a large number of shots. In this paper, a linearization of the OBS positioning problem via the multilateration technique is discussed. The discussed linear solution solves jointly for the average water layer velocity and the OBS position using only shot locations and first arrival times as input data.     

Vulnerability,resilience and development discourses in context of climate change

The paper discusses how the current climate change debate influences the way in which development is conceptualised, negotiated and implemented. The objective of the article is to explore some of the underlying controversies that characterise development discourses in the context of climate change. Adaptation to climate change goes along with a significant shift in discourses used to deal with what is normally called development. This is reflected in shifting research interests and perspectives, from vulnerability studies to resilience thinking. However, the paper argues, this shift is problematic for the normative contents of development and especially for a pro-poor and grass roots perspective.     

Ra-partitioning between phlogopite and silicate melt and 226Ra/Ba–230Th/Ba isochrons

In this study we experimentally determine phlogopite/melt partition coefficients of Ra and other trace elements in a lamproitic system. This work was achieved using an analytical technique (LA-ICP-MS) with low detection limits (~ 0.01 fg) permitting the measurement of the very low Ra concentrations feasible in experiments (~ 1 ppb). D_Ra^{phlogopite/melt} was determined to 2.28 ± 0.44 and 2.84 ± 0.47 in two experiments, the ratio D_Ra/D_Ba is around 1.6. The compatibility of Ra in phlogopite results from an ionic radius being close to the apex of the lattice strain parabola for earth alkalis in the large XII-coordinated interlayer site of phlogopite. A re-evaluation of D_Ra and D_Ra/D_Ba for magmatic minerals containing appreciable Ra, yields D_Ra^mineral/melt ranging from ~ 2.6 for phlogopite down to 2–3 ? 10^? 5 for pyroxenes, and D_Ra/D_Ba^mineral/melt from ~ 4 for leucite to 2 ? 10^? 2 for orthopyroxene. The influence of melt composition on D_Ra/D_Ba is less than 10%. All investigated minerals have different D_Ra/D_Ba, strongly fractionating Ra from Ba. Thus, for magmatic systems, (²²⁶Ra)/Ba in the various minerals is not constant, these minerals do not form a straight line in the (²²⁶Ra)/Ba–(²³⁰Th)/Ba system at the time of crystallization and thus, there is no (²²⁶Ra)/Ba–(²³⁰Th)/Ba isochron at t₀. ²²⁶Ra–²³⁰Th–Ba mineral dating is thus applicable only to model ages calculated from mineral–glass pairs with known D_Ra.     

Inventory and evolution of glacial lakes since the Little Ice Age: Lessons from the case of Switzerland

Retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element. In this study, we combined available data on lake outlines with historical orthoimagery and glacier outlines for six time periods since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1850). We generated a glacial lake inventory for modern times (2016) and traced the evolution of glacial lakes that formed in the deglaciated area since the LIA. In this deglaciated area, a total of 1192 lakes formed over the period of almost 170 years, 987 of them still in existence in 2016. Their total water surface in 2016 was 6.22 ± 0.25 km². The largest lakes are > 0.4 km² (40 ha) in size, while the majority (> 90%) are smaller than 0.01 km². Annual increase rates in area and number peaked in 1946–1973, decreased towards the end of the 20th century, and reached a new high in the latest period 2006–2016. For a period of 43 years (1973–2016), we compared modelled overdeepenings from previous studies to actual lake genesis. For a better prioritization of formation probability, we included glacier-morphological criteria such as glacier width and visible crevassing. About 40% of the modelled overdeepened area actually got covered by lakes. The inclusion of morphological aspects clearly aided in defining a lake formation probability to be linked to each modelled overdeepening. Additional morphological variables, namely dam material and type, surface runoff, and freeboard, were compiled for a subset of larger and ice-contact lakes in 2016, constituting a basis for future hazard assessment.