National contributions to climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target

Globally, agriculture and related land use change contributed about 17% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 (8.4 GtCO₂e yr^?1), making GHG mitigation in the agriculture sector critical to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article proposes a range of country-level targets for mitigation of agricultural emissions by allocating a global target according to five approaches to effort-sharing for climate change mitigation: responsibility, capability, equality, responsibility-capability-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions. Allocating mitigation targets according to responsibility for total historical emissions or capability to mitigate assigned large targets for agricultural emission reductions to North America, Europe and China. Targets based on responsibility for historical agricultural emissions resulted in a relatively even distribution of targets among countries and regions. Meanwhile, targets based on equal future agricultural emissions per capita or equal per capita cumulative emissions assigned very large mitigation targets to countries with large agricultural economies, while allowing some densely populated countries to increase agricultural emissions. There is no single ‘correct’ framework for allocating a global mitigation goal. Instead, using these approaches as a set provides a transparent, scientific basis for countries to inform and help assess the significance of their commitments to reducing emissions from the agriculture sector.

Key policy insights

• Meeting the Paris Agreement 2°C goal will require global mitigation of agricultural non-CO₂ emissions of approximately 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 by 2030.

• Allocating this 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 according to various effort-sharing approaches, it is found that countries will need to mitigate agricultural business-as-usual emissions in 2030 by a median of 10%. Targets vary widely with criteria used for allocation.

• The targets calculated here are in line with the ambition of the few countries (primarily in Africa) that included mitigation targets for the agriculture sector in their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions.

• For agriculture to contribute to meeting the 2°C or 1.5°C targets, countries will need to be ambitious in pursuing emission reductions. Technology development and transfer will be particularly important.

     

Hydrodynamics of accretion columns

A detailed understanding of how the infalling matter in accretion columns is decelerated is essential for the calculation of the emitted radiation. On neutron stars, the deceleration takes place mainly by the interaction of the plasma with radiation, at least for the high-luminosity sources. We report on our two-dimensional calculations of the hydrodynamic flow in such accretion columns. The radiation transport is treated in the diffusion approximation, and we are looking for a stationary solution for the velocity field. The dependence of the results on physical parameters, especially on the accretion rate is discussed. Due to the non-linearity of the problem it turns out that only in certain parameter ranges stationary solutions seem to exist. For accretion rates higher than a critical value there are no stationary accretion flows. This leads us to the conclusion that a time-dependent picture for the accretion is unavoidable.Paper presented at the IAU Colloquium No. 93 on Cataclysmic Variables. Recent Multi-Frequency Observations and Theoretical Developments, held at Dr. Remeis-Sternwarte Bamberg, F.R.G., 16–19 June, 1986.     

A thermodynamic analysis of the system LiAlSiO4-NaAlSiO4-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O based on new heat capacity, thermal expansion, and compressibility data for selected phases

Heat capacity, thermal expansion, and compressibility data have been obtained for a number of selected phases of the system NaAlSiO₄-LiAlSiO₄-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O. All C _p measurements have been executed by DSC in the temperature range 133–823 K. The data for T ≥ 223 K have been fitted to the function C _p (T) = a + cT ⁻² + dT ^−0.5 + fT ⁻³, the fit parameters being The thermal expansion data (up to 525 °C) have been fitted to the function V ⁰(T) = V ⁰(T) [1 + v ₁ (T−T ⁰) + v ₂ (T−T ⁰)²], with T ⁰ = 298.15 K. The room-temperature compressibility data (up to 6 GPa) have been smoothed by the Murnaghan equation of state. The resulting parameters are These data, along with other phase property and reaction reversal data from the literature, have been simultaneously processed by the Bayes method to derive an internally consistent thermodynamic dataset (see Tables 6 and 7) for the NaAlSiO₄-LiAlSiO₄-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O quinary. Phase diagrams generated from this dataset are compatible with cookeite-, ephesite-, and paragonite-bearing assemblages observed in metabauxites and common metasediments. Phase diagrams obtained from the same database are also in agreement with the cookeite-free, petalite-, spodumene-, eucryptite-, and bikitaite-bearing assemblages known to develop in the subsolidus phase of recrystallization of␣lithium-bearing pegmatites. It is gratifying to note that the cookeite phase relations predicted earlier by Vidal and Goffé (1991) in the context of the system Li₂O-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O agree with our results in a general way. Received: 19 May 1998 / Accepted: 25 June 1998     

Surface analysis of stratospheric dust particles

Abstract— A controversially discussed and yet central question in interplanetary dust particle (IDP) research is the degree of alteration of these particles during their residence in the stratosphere. Especially, the typical enrichment of Br in chondritic IDPs (on the average ～21 × CI) has been inferred to be a result of contamination processes, probably invoking aerosol droplets. With time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS), we examined the surfaces of 13 stratospheric particles from the dust collector U2071. Six particles had severe, surface-bound, silicone oil residues preventing a proper analysis of their surfaces. Six other particles—-according to our scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive x-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDS) studies preclassified as one (Fe,Ni)S-rich IDP, one Ca-rich particle, and four aluminum-oxide spheres—-carry the halogens F, Cl, and Br on the surface. At least for the aluminum-oxide spheres, we provide unequivocal evidence for a surface correlation of halogens. This evidence, taken together with that from previous studies, proves a general stratospheric contamination process which has to be considered in IDP research.     

Evidence of estuarine nursery origin of five coastal fish species along the Portuguese coast through otolith elemental fingerprints

Connectivity is a critical property of marine populations, particularly for species with segregated juvenile and adult habitats. Knowledge of this link is fundamental in understanding population structure and dynamics. Young adults of commercially important fish species Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Platichthys flesus, Diplodus vulgaris and Dicentrarchus labrax were sampled off the Portuguese coast in order to establish preliminary evidence of estuarine nursery origins through otolith elemental fingerprints. Concentrations of Li, Na, Mg, K, Mn, Cu, Zn, Sr, Ba and Pb in the otolith section corresponding to juvenile's nursery life period were determined through laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Element: Ca ratios in coastal fish differed significantly amongst collection areas, except for Platichthys flesus, and were compared with the elemental fingerprints previously defined for age 0 juveniles in the main estuarine nurseries of the Portuguese coast. Identification of nursery estuaries was achieved for four of the species. Assigned nursery origins varied amongst species and differences in the spatial scale of fish dispersal were also found. Diplodus vulgaris was not reliably assigned to any of the defined nurseries. Overall, results give evidence of the applicability of estuarine habitat tags in future assessments of estuarine nursery role. Research developments on the links between juvenile and adult habitats should contribute for the integrated management and conservation of nurseries and coastal stocks.     

The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and damage estimates on the results of IAMs. One aspect to which little attention has been paid is how the representation of the climate system may affect the estimated benefits of mitigation action. In that respect, we analyse several well-known IAMs, including the newest versions of FUND, DICE and PAGE. Given the role of IAMs in integrating information from different disciplines, they should ideally represent both best estimates and the ranges of anticipated climate system and carbon cycle behaviour (as e.g. synthesised in the IPCC Assessment reports). We show that in the longer term, beyond 2100, most IAM parameterisations of the carbon cycle imply lower CO₂ concentrations compared to a model that captures IPCC AR4 knowledge more closely, e.g. the carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC6. With regard to the climate component, some IAMs lead to much lower benefits of mitigation than MAGICC6. The most important reason for the underestimation of the benefits of mitigation is the failure in capturing climate dynamics correctly, which implies this could be a potential development area to focus on.     

Mobility and H2O loss from fluid inclusions in natural quartz crystals

Petrographic observations on quartz crystals from the Mole Granite (Australia) and other localities shed new light on the mechanisms of post-entrapment modification of fluid inclusions. These modifications include migration away from pseudosecondary trails, changes in fluid salinity and density, shape distortion and the formation of “sweat-haloes” around strongly deformed inclusions. Increases in fluid salinity, which usually are associated with inclusion migration, indicate water-losses of up to 50%. However, LA-ICP-MS-analysis of unmobilized and mobilized inclusions of the same trail reveals basically unchanged ratios of major – and trace element cations, with the exception of Li, which seems to be incorporated into the crystal lattice during migration. Despite the fact that all these modifications are closely related to deformation processes, they occur not only in mechanically deformed quartz, but also in free-standing crystals. In the latter samples, stress has been generated internally as a result of brazil-twinned growth and compositional zonation. These observations and their interpretation leads to a list of practical criteria that should help in differentiating between reliable and suspect fluid inclusions in other samples. Received: 17 November 1998 / Accepted: 16 April 1999     

Trace element compositions of minerals in garnet and spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Vitim volcanic field, Transbaikalia, eastern Siberia

Peridotite xenoliths from the Bereya alkali picrite tuff in the Vitim volcanic province of Transbaikalia consist of garnet lherzolite, garnet–spinel lherzolite and spinel lherzolite varieties. The volcanism is related to the Cenozoic Baikal Rift. All peridotites come from pressures of 20–23 kbar close to the garnet to spinel peridotite transition depth, and the presence of garnet can be attributed to cooling of spinel peridotites, probably during formation of the lithosphere. The peridotites show petrographic and mineral chemical evidence for infiltration by an alkaline silicate melt shortly before their transport to the Earth's surface. The melt infiltration event is indicated petrographically by clinopyroxenes which mimic melt morphologies, and post-dates outer kelyphitic rims on garnets which are attributed to an isochemical heating event within the mantle before transport to the Earth's surface. Single-mineral thermometry gives reasonable temperature estimates of 1050±50°C, whereas two-mineral methods involving clinopyroxene are falsified by secondary components in clinopyroxene introduced during the melt infiltration event. Excimer Laser–ICP-MS analysis has been performed for an extensive palette of both incompatible and compatible trace elements, and manifests the most thorough dataset available for this rock type. Orthopyroxene and garnet show only partial equilibration of trace elements with the infiltrating melt, whereas clinopyroxene and amphibole are close to equilibration with the melt and with each other. The incompatible element composition of the infiltrating melt calculated from the clinopyroxene and amphibole analyses via experimental mineral/melt partition coefficients is similar to the host alkali picrite, and probably represents a low melt fraction from a similar source during rift propagation. The chemistry and chronology of the events recorded in the xenoliths delineates the series of events expected during the influence of an expanding rift region in the upper mantle, namely the progressive erosion of the lithosphere and the episodic upward and outward propagation of melts, resulting in the evolution of the Vitim volcanic field.     

Testing the Quality of Sea-Level Data Using the GECCO Adjoint Assimilation Approach

Besides providing an estimate of the changing ocean state, an important result of the dynamically consistent estimating the circulation and climate of the ocean (ECCO) state estimate approach is the provision of a posterior model–data residuals which contain important information about elements in the assimilated observations that are inconsistent with the model dynamics or with the information present in other ocean data sets that are being used as constraints in the assimilation procedure. Based on decreased GECCO2 model–data residuals, upon using the altimeter data through the ESA climate change initiative (cci) sea-level (SL) project, we show here that the recently reprocessed ESA SL_cci altimeter data set (SL1) has been improved relative to the earlier AVISO altimetry data set and is now more consistent with the GECCO2 estimate and with the information about the changing ocean state embedded in other ocean data sets. The improvement can be shown to exist separately for both TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS data sets. The study reveals that especially in regions characterized by small sea surface height (SSH) variability and small signal-to-noise ratio in the SSH data, improvements can be on the order of 30% of previously existing model–data residuals. However, in some regions we can find degradations, particulary in those where GECCO2 has little skill in representing the altimeter data and where evaluation of the products with GECCO2 is thus not advisable. Upon the assimilation of the new SL1 data set, the GECCO2 synthesis was further improved. However, adding the sea surface temperature (SST) from the SST_cci project as additional constrain, no further impact can be identified.