Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere: constraints on timing and genesis from U–Pb zircon dating of metasomatized peridotites and MARID-type xenoliths

Modal metasomatism in the Kaapvaal craton lithosphere is well documented in upper mantle xenoliths sampled by both group I (mainly late Cretaceous) and group II (mainly early Cretaceous to late Jurassic) kimberlites in the Kimberley area. The metasomatic style is characterized by introduction of K, H and large ion lithophile/high field strength (LIL/HFS) elements into the lithospheric mantle leading to the crystallization of hydrous potassic phases such as phlogopite and/or K-amphibole. Textures indicate that the hydrous phases either replace pre-existing assemblages in peridotites, forming the metasomatized peridotite suite (phlogopite–K-richterite–peridotites: PKPs) or crystallize from K-rich melts, forming the mica–amphibole–rutile–ilmenite–diopside (MARID) suite of xenoliths. These K-rich assemblages become potential low melting source components for alkaline incompatible trace element enriched magmas. The timing of metasomatism and its temporal and possible genetic relation to kimberlite magmatism is poorly constrained because of the rarity of phases in the metasomatic assemblages suitable for precise dating. Here we present precise sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb formation ages of 88 ± 2 (1σ=1 standard deviation) and 82 ± 3 Ma data for zircons from a K-richterite–phlogopite-bearing metasomatized peridotite (PKP) and a MARID xenolith respectively, sampled by a group I kimberlite. Both average PKP and MARID zircon ages are indistinguishable from emplacement ages of group I kimberlites in the Kimberley area dated at 83 ± 4 (2σ) and 84 ± 0.9 Ma. One exceptionally old age spot of 102 ± 5 Ma from a PKP zircon provides evidence for modal metasomatism predating group I kimberlite emplacement by several millions of years with minor resetting of the U–Pb isotopic system of most analyzed PKP zircons to a group I emplacement age. Detailed textural and mineral chemical analysis, including high energy X-ray mapping and analysis of fluid inclusion daughter crystals, indicates a complex reaction history for both PKPs and MARIDs. U–Pb zircon ages from this study combined with literature data and experimentally derived models for MARID formation are used to suggest that MARID-formation is concurrent and genetically related to both group I and II kimberlite magmatism in the Kimberley area. MARID and PKP zircon ages are also consistent with the idea first proposed by Dawson and Smith (Geochim Cosmochim Acta 41: 309–323, 1977) that metasomatized peridotites may form from interaction of hydrous fluids expelled by solidifying MARID-type melts with peridotitic wall rocks. Received: 13 December 1999 / Accepted: 13 April 2000     

Accurate U-Pb Age and Trace Element Determinations of Zircon by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

Various zircons of Proterozoic to Oligocene ages (1060-31 Ma) were analysed by laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Calibration was performed using Harvard reference zircon 91500 or Australian National University reference zircon TEMORA 1 as external calibrant. The results agree with those obtained by SIMS within 2s error. Twenty-four trace and rare earth elements (P, Ti, Cr, Y, Nb, fourteen REE, Hf, Ta, Pb, Th and U) were analysed on four fragments of zircon 91500. NIST SRM 610 was used as the reference material and ²⁹Si was used as internal calibrant. Based on determinations of four fragments, this zircon shows significant intra-and inter-fragment variations in the range from 10% to 85% on a scale of 120 μm, with the variation of REE concentrations up to 38.7%, although the chondrite-normalised REE distributions are very similar. In contrast, the determined age values for zircon 91500 agree with TIMS data and are homogeneous within 8.7 Ma (2 s ). A two-stage ablation strategy was developed for optimising U-Pb age determinations with satisfactory trace element and REE results. The first cycle of ablation was used to collect data for age determination only, which was followed by continuous ablation on the same spot to determine REE and trace element concentrations. Based on this procedure, it was possible to measure zircon ages as low as 30.37 0.39 Ma (MSWD = 1.4; 2 s ). Other examples for older zircons are also given.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Turbulent fluxes from Helipod flights above quasi-homogeneous patches within the LITFASS area

Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat were measured with the helicopter-borne turbulence probe Helipod over a heterogeneous landscape around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg during the STINHO-2 and LITFASS-2003 field experiments. Besides the determination of area-averaged heat fluxes, the analysis focused on different aspects of the response of the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer (CBL) on the surface heterogeneity. A special flight pattern was designed to study flux profiles both over quasi-homogeneous sub-areas of the study region (representing the major land use types—forest, farmland, water) and over a typical mixture of the different surfaces. Significant differences were found between the heat fluxes over the individual surfaces along flight legs at about 80 m above ground level, in agreement with large-aperture scintillometer measurements. This flux separation was still present during some flights at levels near the middle of the CBL. Different scales for the blending height and horizontal heterogeneity were calculated, but none of them could be identified as a reliable indicator of the mixing state of the lower CBL. With the exception of the flights over water, the latent heat flux measurements generally showed a larger statistical error when compared with the sensible heat flux. Correlation coefficients a nd integral length scales were used to characterise the interplay between the vertical transport of sensible and latent heat, which was found to vary between ‘fairly correlated’ and ‘decoupled’, also depending on the soil moisture conditions.     

The Consistency of IPCC's SRES Scenarios to 1990–2000 Trends and Recent Projections

The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios published by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) continue to serve as a primary basis for assessing future climate change and possible response strategies. These scenarios were developed between 1996 and 1999 and sufficient time has now passed to make it worth examining their consistency with more recent data and projections. The comparison performed in this paper includes population, GDP, energy use, and emissions of CO₂, non-CO₂ gases and sulfur. We find the SRES scenarios to be largely consistent with historical data for the 1990–2000 period and with recent projections. Exceptions to this general observation include (1) in the long-term, relatively high population growth assumptions; in some regions, particularly in the A2 scenario; (2) in the medium-term, relatively high economic growth assumptions in the LAM (Latin America, Africa and Middle East) region in the A1 scenario; (3) in the short-term, CO₂ emissions projections in A1 that are somewhat higher than the range of current scenarios; and (4) substantially higher sulfur emissions in some scenarios than in historical data and recent projections. In conclusion, given the relatively small inconsistencies for use as global scenarios there seems to be no immediate need for a large-scale IPCC-led update of the SRES scenarios that is solely based on the SRES scenario performance vis-a-vis data for the 1990–2000 period and/or more recent projections. Based on reported findings, individual research teams could make, and in some cases already have made, useful updates of the scenarios.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.     

Eemian tropical and subtropical African moisture transport: an isotope modelling study

During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of ¹⁸O and deuterium (H ₂ ¹⁸ O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10°N and 20°N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East–West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of δ¹⁸O and δD is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region.     

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.