Post-solidification cooling and the age of Io's lava flows

The modeling of thermal emission from active lava flows must account for the cooling of the lava after solidification. Models of lava cooling applied to data collected by the Galileo spacecraft have, until now, not taken this into consideration. This is a flaw as lava flows on Io are thought to be relatively thin with a range in thickness from ∼1 to 13 m. Once a flow is completely solidified (a rapid process on a geological time scale), the surface cools faster than the surface of a partially molten flow. Cooling via the base of the lava flow is also important and accelerates the solidification of the flow compared to the rate for the ‘semi-infinite’ approximation (which is only valid for very deep lava bodies). We introduce a new model which incorporates the solidification and basal cooling features. This model gives a superior reproduction of the cooling of the 1997 Pillan lava flows on Io observed by the Galileo spacecraft. We also use the new model to determine what observations are necessary to constrain lava emplacement style at Loki Patera. Flows exhibit different cooling profiles from that expected from a lava lake. We model cooling with a finite-element code and make quantitative predictions for the behavior of lava flows and other lava bodies that can be tested against observations both on Io and Earth. For example, a 10-m-thick ultramafic flow, like those emplaced at Pillan Patera in 1997, solidifies in ∼450 days (at which point the surface temperature has cooled to ∼280 K) and takes another 390 days to cool to 249 K. Observations over a sufficient period of time reveal divergent cooling trends for different lava bodies [examples: lava flows and lava lakes have different cooling trends after the flow has solidified (flows cool faster)]. Thin flows solidify and cool faster than flows of greater thickness. The model can therefore be used as a diagnostic tool for constraining possible emplacement mechanisms and compositions of bodies of lava in remote-sensing data.     

Ultra-wideband radar studies of steep crested waves with scanning laser measurements of wave slope profiles

We report results of ultra wide-band radar sea spike experiments using steep and weakly breaking non-linear water surface features in a wave tank. To generate these features we used a 1 s paddle wave and wind waves for a sequence of wind speeds. A scanning laser was used to measure synchronously the surface slope profile across 12 cm along the wave propagation direction once per radar pulse. A time domain reflectometer (TDR) radar transmitted short horizontally polarized pulses at X-band, several hundred picoseconds long, to give a range resolution of 10 cm. A radar range of 36 cm was digitally sampled so that surface feature echoes could be tracked through the area continuously with 5 ms temporal resolution with each instrument. We report results considering the wave slope component in the propagation direction and the corresponding curvature component. For the conditions studied, two types of features which produce sea spike radar echoes were generated–a non-linear feature near the crest front of the wind wave, caused by extreme steepening as a result of the passage of the paddle wave, and a steepened blocked wind wave in the trough of the paddle wave, caused by the local orbital current of the 1 s wave being nearly equal to and opposite the phase velocity of the wind wave.     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Economic development,urban expansion,and sustainable development in Shanghai

Studies of urbanization effects in Chinese cities from the aspect of the coupled development of economy and environment are rare due to data limitations. This paper studied Shanghai’s fast urban expansion and examined the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environment consequences at the district level. We extracted data on urban built-up area and land surface temperature from remote sensing images. We analyzed the patterns of urban expansion and land use change and explained the dynamic relationship between economic development and environment conditions. We attributed the uneven economic development and environmental change in districts of Shanghai to four main institutional factors: (1) the role of the government, (2) the multi-level urban planning system, (3) land market reform, and (4) the economic restructuring.