Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Isotopic and noble gas study of Chalk groundwater in the London Basin, England

The chemical and isotopic composition of groundwater from 52 sites in the London (U.K.) area was determined as part of a project aimed at assessing the spatial variation in the age of Chalk groundwater, and in determining the relationship between fracture and matrix groundwater in this dual porosity system.Systematic changes in groundwater chemistry take place in the downgradient direction in response to several chemical processes. These processes include early concentration by evaporation and congruent dissolution of calcite followed by widespread incongruent dissolution and ion exchange in addition to local oxidation-reduction reactions, gypsum dissolution and saline intrusion. As a result of the above processes, Chalk groundwater follows an evolutionary path from Ca bicarbonate type to Na bicarbonate type.The age of Chalk groundwater was modelled using¹⁴C, δ¹³C,³H, δ²H and δ¹⁸0. There is a general increase in the groundwater age in a downgradient direction with the oldest water found in N central areas of the basin. Groundwater in the unconfined zones and in areas S of the Greenwich fault is almost entirely of unevolved, modem composition. Carbon-14 modelling suggests that Chalk groundwater in the S basin is generally less than 10000 a old while that in the north is generally between 10000 and 25000 a old. The presence of³H in concentrations of up to 7 TU in groundwater which yields ages of several 1000 a, however, indicates that mechanisms exist for the rapid introduction of recent groundwater to the confined aquifer. Results of palaeorecharge temperature determinations using δ²H, δ¹⁸0 and noble gas analytical results suggest that significant Devensian recharge did indeed occur in the aquifer.A model of the development of the Chalk recognizes that it is a classic dual porosity aquifer in which groundwater flow occurs predominantly in the fracture system. The upper 50 m of the aquifer was flushed with fresh water during the 2–3 × 10⁶ a of the Quaternary and therefore meteoric water largely replaced the Tertiary and Cretaceous marine water that previously saturated the system. Most processes which control the chemistry of the groundwater occur in the matrix where the surface area is exceptionally high. Although fracture flow dominates the flow regime, diffusion from the matrix into the fracture porosity controls the chemistry of Chalk groundwater.     

Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.     

Hydrocarbons generated by hydropyrolysis of suspended marine particulate organic matter: Relationship to the oceanography of the Black Sea and the Rhodes Gyre

The suspended particulate organic matter, SPOM, in the autumnal Black Sea has been characterised using catalytic hydropyrolysis (HyPy) of the total (bound plus free) lipid material. The technique, which generates maximum yields of volatile products from sediments, kerogens and phytoplankton, was followed using gas chromatography and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The generated alkanes were dominated by n-C₁₈, hypothesised to arise predominantly from unsaturated C₁₈ fatty acids. Steranes were generated from reductive conversion of free and bound sterols. The generation of branched alkanes and especially of hopanes provided formal evidence for the participation of bacteria in the mineralisation of the SPOM. Whereas similar distributions of n-alkanes were generated from SPOM sampled from different depths of the comparatively well-stirred Rhodes Gyre (eastern Mediterranean), mineralisation of the SPOM at each depth of the central Black Sea produced characteristic changes in the composition and concentration of the HyPy products. Depth profiles of the n-alkanes generated from SPOM in the region of the Rim Current were affected by the local hydrography. Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of anthropogenic origin were present in the surface waters of the central Black Sea. Some methyl benzenes, thiophenes and pyrroles were also generated.     

无锡城市制造业企业区位调整与苏南模式重组

苏南地域广阔,区域和城市发展路径多样。较多研究关注全球化背景下国家和省级开发区发展带来的苏南模式创新,但是城市化对苏南模式重组影响同样值得关注。基于企业数据的空间分析以及企业访谈和问卷调查资料,从制造业企业进入和退出的角度,考察无锡市南长区在从乡镇企业典型发育地区(郊区)转变为城区过程中的产业升级和空间格局调整过程。研究表明:南长区制造业经历了产权重组、结构重组和空间重组三个过程,呈现出中小高新技术企业为主、空间上高度集中等城市化特征。政府表现出明显的"企业化"倾向,与传统苏南模式中直接介入企业经营不同,地方政府通过规划调控以及开发区建设、税收等金融刺激政策和措施影响企业区位行为,从而推动城市产业结构的转型升级和空间再集聚。     

Book reviews

AUSTRALIA AND ITS URBAN “CENTRES (Urbanization of the Earth No. 6) by B. Hofmeister. 19 × 28 cm, xii and 254 pages. Gebruder Borntraeger: Berlin 1988 (ISBN 3 443 37008 X) DM130 (hard).

CONTEMPORARY AUSTRALIA: Explorations in Economy, Society and Geography by D. J. Walmsley and A. D. Sorenson. 19 × 25 cm, xxiv and 328 pages. Longman Cheshire: Melbourne 1988 (ISBN 0 58271150 9) $A29.95 (soft).

WATERING THE GARDEN STATE: Water, Land and Community in Victoria 1834–1988 by J. M. Powell. 16 × 24 cm, xv and 319 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1989 (ISBN 0 04 3600 74 3) SA39.95 (hard); (ISBN 0 04 364024 9) SA24.95 (soft).

THE BUREAUCRATS DOMAIN. Space and the Public Interest in Victoria 1836–1884 by R. Wright. 15 × 23 cm, xv and 350 pages. Oxford University Press: Melbourne 1989 (ISBN 0 19 554866 3) $A39.95 (hard).

SOUTHERN APPROACHES: Geography in New Zealand edited by P. G. Holland and W. B. Johnston. 17 × 25 cm, 361 pages. New Zealand Geographical Society: Christchurch 1987 (ISBN 0 9597 863 0 9) $A56.50 (soft).     

Garnet growth at high- and ultra-high pressure conditions and the effect of element fractionation on mineral modes and composition

In this paper we show that thermodynamic forward modelling, using Gibbs energy minimisation with consideration of element fractionation into refractory phases and/or liberated fluids, is able to extract information about the complex physical and chemical evolution of a deeply subducted rock volume. By comparing complex compositional growth zonations in garnets from high-and ultra-high pressure samples with those derived from thermodynamic forward modelling, we yield an insight into the effects of element fractionation on composition and modes of the co-genetic metamorphic phase assemblage. Our results demonstrate that fractionation effects cause discontinuous growth and re-crystallisation of metamorphic minerals in high pressure rocks. Reduced or hindered mineral growth at UHP conditions can control the inclusion and preservation of minerals indicative for UHP metamorphism, such as coesite, thus masking peak pressure conditions reached in subducted rocks.Further, our results demonstrate that fractional garnet crystallisation leads to strong compositional gradients and step-like zonation patterns in garnet, a feature often observed in high-and ultra-high pressure rocks. Thermodynamic forward modelling allows the interpretation of commonly observed garnet growth zonation patterns in terms of garnet forming reactions and the relative timing of garnet growth with respect to the rock's pressure–temperature path. Such a correlation is essential for the determination of tectonic and metamorphic rates in subduction zones as well as for the understanding of trace element signatures in subduction related rocks. It therefore should be commonplace in the investigation of metamorphic processes in subduction zones.     

Snow depth estimation accuracy using a dual-interface GPS-IR model with experimental results

GPS Solutions - Measuring snow depth using the GPS interferometric reflectometry is an active microwave remote sensing technique and an emerging approach because of its relatively large spatial...