Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Environmental change in grasslands: Assessment using models

Modeling studies and observed data suggest that plant production, species distribution, disturbance regimes, grassland biome boundaries and secondary production (i.e., animal productivity) could be affected by potential changes in climate and by changes in land use practices. There are many studies in which computer models have been used to assess the impact of climate changes on grassland ecosystems. A global assessment of climate change impacts suggest that some grassland ecosystems will have higher plant production (humid temperate grasslands) while the production of extreme continental steppes (e.g., more arid regions of the temperate grasslands of North America and Eurasia) could be reduced substantially. All of the grassland systems studied are projected to lose soil carbon, with the greatest losses in the extreme continental grassland systems. There are large differences in the projected changes in plant production for some regions, while alterations in soil C are relatively similar over a range of climate change projections drawn from various General Circulation Models (GCM's). The potential impact of climatic change on cattle weight gains is unclear. The results of modeling studies also suggest that the direct impact of increased atmospheric CO₂ on photosynthesis and water use in grasslands must be considered since these direct impacts could be as large as those due to climatic changes. In addition to its direct effects on photosynthesis and water use, elevated CO₂ concentrations lower N content and reduce digestibility of the forage.     

Post-solidification cooling and the age of Io's lava flows

The modeling of thermal emission from active lava flows must account for the cooling of the lava after solidification. Models of lava cooling applied to data collected by the Galileo spacecraft have, until now, not taken this into consideration. This is a flaw as lava flows on Io are thought to be relatively thin with a range in thickness from ∼1 to 13 m. Once a flow is completely solidified (a rapid process on a geological time scale), the surface cools faster than the surface of a partially molten flow. Cooling via the base of the lava flow is also important and accelerates the solidification of the flow compared to the rate for the ‘semi-infinite’ approximation (which is only valid for very deep lava bodies). We introduce a new model which incorporates the solidification and basal cooling features. This model gives a superior reproduction of the cooling of the 1997 Pillan lava flows on Io observed by the Galileo spacecraft. We also use the new model to determine what observations are necessary to constrain lava emplacement style at Loki Patera. Flows exhibit different cooling profiles from that expected from a lava lake. We model cooling with a finite-element code and make quantitative predictions for the behavior of lava flows and other lava bodies that can be tested against observations both on Io and Earth. For example, a 10-m-thick ultramafic flow, like those emplaced at Pillan Patera in 1997, solidifies in ∼450 days (at which point the surface temperature has cooled to ∼280 K) and takes another 390 days to cool to 249 K. Observations over a sufficient period of time reveal divergent cooling trends for different lava bodies [examples: lava flows and lava lakes have different cooling trends after the flow has solidified (flows cool faster)]. Thin flows solidify and cool faster than flows of greater thickness. The model can therefore be used as a diagnostic tool for constraining possible emplacement mechanisms and compositions of bodies of lava in remote-sensing data.     

Cadmium distribution in coastal sediments and mollusks of the US

Cadmium (Cd) concentrations in the coastal United States were assessed using the National Status and Trends (NS&T) Mussel Watch dataset, which is based on the analysis of sediments and bivalves collected from 280 sites since 1986. Using the 1997 sediment data, Pearson correlation (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) suggested that Cd distributions in sediment can, be to some extent, explained by the proximity of sites to population centers. The 2003 tissue data indicated that “high” Cd concentrations (greater than 5.6 μg/g dry weights [dw] for mussel and 5.4 μg/g dw for oysters) were related to salinity along the East and Gulf coasts. Along the West coast, however, these “high” sites appeared to be related to upwelling phenomenon. Additionally, sedimentary diagenesis was found to be the most likely explanation of why sediment and mollusk Cd content were not well correlated.     

Scaling Properties of Biologically Active Scalar Concentration Fluctuations in the Atmospheric Surface Layer over a Managed Peatland

The higher-order scalar concentration fluctuation properties are examined in the context of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory for a variety of greenhouse gases that have distinct and separate source/sink locations along an otherwise ideal micrometeorological field site. Air temperature and concentrations of water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane were measured at high frequency (10 Hz) above a flat and extensive peat-land soil in the San Joaquin–Sacramento Delta (California, USA) area, subjected to year-round grazing by beef cattle. Because of the heterogeneous distribution of the sources and sinks of CO₂ and especially CH₄ emitted by cattle, the scaling behaviour of the higher-order statistical properties diverged from predictions based on a balance between their production and dissipation rate terms, which can obtained for temperature and H₂O during stationary conditions. We identify and label these departures as ‘exogenous’ because they depend on heterogeneities and non-stationarities induced by boundary conditions on the flow. Spectral analysis revealed that the exogenous effects show their signatures in regions with frequencies lower than those associated with scalar vertical transport by turbulence, though the two regions may partially overlap in some cases. Cospectra of vertical fluxes appear less influenced by these exogenous effects because of the modulating role of the vertical velocity at low frequencies. Finally, under certain conditions, the presence of such exogenous factors in higher-order scalar fluctuation statistics may be ‘fingerprinted’ by a large storage term in the mean scalar budget.     

Atmospheric effects in the remote sensing of phytoplankton pigments

We investigate the accuracy with which relevant atmospheric parameters must be estimated to derive phytoplankton pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a plus phaeophytin a ) of a given accuracy from measurements of the ocean's apparent spectral radiance at satellite altitudes. The analysis is limited to an instrument having the characteristics of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner scheduled to orbit the Earth on NIMBUS-G. A phytoplankton pigment algorithm is developed which relates the pigment concentration (C) to the three ratios of upwelling radiance just beneath the sea surface which can be formed from the wavelengths () 440, 520 and 550 nm. The pigment algorithm explains from 94 to 98% of the variance in log₁₀ C over three orders of magnitude in pigment concentration. This is combined with solutions to the radiative transfer equation to simulate the ocean's apparent spectral radiance at satellite altitudes as a function of C and the optical properties of the aerosol, the optical depth of which is assumed to be proportioned to ^-n . A specific atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the assumption that the ocean is totally absorbing at 670 nm, is then applied to the simulated spectral radiance, from which the pigment concentration is derived. Comparison between the true and derived values of C show that: (1) n is considerably more important than the actual aerosol optical thickness; (2) for C 0299-1 0.2 g l^-1 acceptable concentrations can be determined as long as n is not overestimated; (3) as C increases, the accuracy with which n must be estimated, for a given relative accuracy in C, also increases; and (4) for C greater than about 0.5 g 1^-1, the radiance at 440 nm becomes essentially useless in determining C. The computations also suggest that if separate pigment algorithms are used for C 1gl^-1 and C 1 gl^-1, accuracies considerably better than ±± in log C can be obtained for C 1 g l^-1 with only a coarse estimate of n, while for C 10 gl^-1, this accuracy can be achieved only with very good estimates of n.Contribution No. 387 from the NOAA/ERL Pacific Environmental Laboratory.On leave from Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida.     

Ultra-wideband radar studies of steep crested waves with scanning laser measurements of wave slope profiles

We report results of ultra wide-band radar sea spike experiments using steep and weakly breaking non-linear water surface features in a wave tank. To generate these features we used a 1 s paddle wave and wind waves for a sequence of wind speeds. A scanning laser was used to measure synchronously the surface slope profile across 12 cm along the wave propagation direction once per radar pulse. A time domain reflectometer (TDR) radar transmitted short horizontally polarized pulses at X-band, several hundred picoseconds long, to give a range resolution of 10 cm. A radar range of 36 cm was digitally sampled so that surface feature echoes could be tracked through the area continuously with 5 ms temporal resolution with each instrument. We report results considering the wave slope component in the propagation direction and the corresponding curvature component. For the conditions studied, two types of features which produce sea spike radar echoes were generated–a non-linear feature near the crest front of the wind wave, caused by extreme steepening as a result of the passage of the paddle wave, and a steepened blocked wind wave in the trough of the paddle wave, caused by the local orbital current of the 1 s wave being nearly equal to and opposite the phase velocity of the wind wave.