Generalized cross-validation for covariance model selection

A weighted cross-validation technique known in the spline literature as generalized cross-validation (GCV), is proposed for covariance model selection and parameter estimation. Weights for prediction errors are selected to give more importance to a cluster of points than isolated points. Clustered points are estimated better by their neighbors and are more sensitive to model parameters. This rational weighting scheme also provides a simplifying significantly the computation of the cross-validation mean square error of prediction. With small- to medium-size datasets, GCV is performed in a global neighborhood. Optimization of usual isotropic models requires only a small number of matrix inversions. A small dataset and a simulation are used to compare performances of GCV to ordinary cross-validation (OCV) and least-squares filling (LS).     

The fifth order geomagnetic multipole: The duotrigintupole

Summary The notion of a dipole is generalized to the case of the fifth order spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic potential. The corresponding five axes and fifth order multipole strength are computed for ten epochs in the interval 1845 to 1965.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Lunar behaviour of boron contrasted with the terrestrial boron cycle

Abstract— Fifty-eight lunar rocks have been analysed by prompt gamma neutron activation for B, Gd and Sm. The data were interpreted together with published analyses for Li and other elements. The behaviour of B in lunar rocks is virtually identical to that of Sm, Gd, Li and the other incompatible LIL (Large Ion Lithophile) and HFS (High Field Strength) elements, collectively known as the KREEP component. To a first approximation, the distribution of B concentrations in all lunar rocks can be described as a two-component mixture of KREEP, with ～32 ppm, and B-free mare basalts and anorthositic rocks. The lunar B abundance, estimated from correlations with other KREEP elements, is ～0.14 ppm. Alpha-track images of the analysed lunar rocks were made from thin sections specially prepared to avoid contamination from terrestrial B. They provided surprising evidence that the distributions of B and Li within individual rocks fall into four categories: (1) substitution in mineral structures; (2) in irregular minute particles, disseminated through the rock with no apparent connection with mineralogy; (3) as aggregate properties of rock fragments, acquired prior to assembly in a breccia; and, (4) as aggregate properties of a breccia matrix, distinct from unaffected clasts. Only category (1) is encountered in terrestrial rocks. Categories (2), (3) and (4) become progressively more important as the abundance of KREEP components increases, and it is concluded that the alpha-track images probably show the localisation of not only B and Li but all the KREEP elements. In terrestrial rocks, such textures could be understood in terms of successive episodes of permeation by solutions followed by brecciation, then cementation. It is difficult to adapt such a mechanism to a dry Moon, with brecciation imposed by impact melting. The linear correlation of lunar B and Gd contrasts strongly with the relationship seen in terrestrial rocks, where the presence of water creates a terrestrial B cycle quite different from that of Gd and other lunar incompatible elements.     

Synchronous Transformations of Mineral and Organic Constituents of Sedimentary Rocks in Geological Structure with an Initial Extension and Subsequent Compression Tectonic Regime

Sedimentary rocks of the section in the Red River fold zone of northern Viet Nam are considered. It is shown that secondary mineral parageneses formed in two stages. The first stage (35–17 Ma ago) corresponded to the period of structure extension and sediment subsidence to a depth of about 6 km. This period and subsequent 10 Ma were marked by the formation of a usual dia- and catagenetic zoning of metasedimentary rocks. The second stage (5–7 Ma ago) corresponded to processes of compression that were responsible for the deformation of rocks into gentle folds and 1.5 to 2.2 times contraction of the section thickness in different places. The sequential–mineralogical zoning was disturbed at this stage. Smectites and mixed-layer minerals were replaced by chlorites and hydromicas. Organic material also responded to compression simultaneously with inorganic components. The bituminous component was released from humic matter and rocks became enriched in hydrocarbons.     

Wide-Field Camera for Gravitational Microlensing Survey: MOA-cam2

We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.     

Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation

A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors.     

Une méthode globale d'estimation des températures des réservoirs alimentant les sources thermales. Exemple du Massif Central Français

A chemical model based on the equilibrium of water with quartz, albite, adularia, calcite, kaolinite or illite, and chlorite can explain the chemical composition of the main groups of hot springs in Massif Central. Temperature is the principal variable for determining this composition. Model temperatures generally agree with those given by classical cation geothermometers (t ? 135–150° C for Vichy. La Bourboule. Evaux and Châteauneuf; t ? 175–180° C for Chaudes Aigues and Saint Nectaire). The model fails to represent the composition of Mont Dore waters: the high temperatures given by classical geothermometers are considered doubtful.