Lithospheric Geothermal Structure in Yunnan, China

In this paper,the characteristics of the lateral variations of the deep heat flow and Hthospheric geotemperature distribution in Yunnan have been studied,and the lithospheric geothermal structure has been divided into three types,i.e.the geothermal structure in the typical modern tectonically active region,transitional geological region and stable geological region.Finally,the relationship between the geotherm and seismicitv has been discussed.     

Impacts of confining pressure and safety thickness on water and mud inrush in weathered granite

Abstract

Due to the strong disintegration and water erosion of completely weathered granite, water and mud inrush disasters are apt to take place in this zone during underwater tunnel construction. The pore, compactness, seepage path length, fracture geometries and their interconnections for water and mud transfer are strongly influenced by confining pressure and waterproof-resistant slab safety thickness. In order to inspect the influence, a series of experiments based on a self-designed testing system and non-Darcy testing method were performed. The results indicated that the water and mud inrush evolution increased with the increase of confining pressure and decreased with the increase of safety thickness. In particular, the confining pressure mainly influences the initial evolution stage, and a critical safety thickness to prevent water and mud inrush is obtained. Besides, the non-Darcy testing method results shows that the water and mud inrush evolution affects the influence of non-Darcy flow. For example, while the safety thickness was smaller than the critical value, the evolution was large and unstable and its behavior transferred into nonlinear. In this case, the flow changed to non-Darcy flow.     

LC元件参数的数字测量方法与设计

本文着重说明如何将LC元件的諸参数转换为相应的数字量,以适应数字測量的要求。本文采用的方法与设计,具有电路结构简单,易于实现的特点。     

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than...     

利用应力场预测热液区域——以TAG区为例

本文根据TAG区的钻探资料及岩心测试结果,建立了双层地质模型,在此基础上利用ANSYS应力软件并结合TAG热液区的地形数据对该区进行应力模拟。结果表明:热液喷口区域与最大水平应力低值区有较好的对应关系。其中仍处于活动状态的TAG丘状体区呈现明显的局部最大水平应力低值;而已经停止活动并且不具有典型喷口地形的MIR丘状体区域则处于最大水平应力的非封闭低值区域。据此,本文在TAG丘状体区域圈定了5个喷口可能区域,钻探结果揭示区内存在较好的矿化和蚀变现象,表明应力场预测法可能是一种有效的成矿预测方法。     

罗丹宁纤维富集分离－示波极谱法测定地质样品中的金

考察了螯合罗丹宁纤维富集分离。示波极谱法测定Ａｕ的条件，选用０．１５ｇ罗丹宁纤维装柱（Φ５ｍｍ×８０ｍｍ）富集Ａｕ，吸附Ａｕ后的罗丹宁纤维于７００℃灰化的烧，浸取物在ＮａＯＨ底液中用示波极谱法测定。测定范围为０．４～１４０μｇ／ｍｌＡｕ，经对标样分析，结果与标准值相符。对Ａｕ含量为４．９３×１０￣－６级的标样进行１０次测定，方法精密度（ＲＳＤ）为１．１４％。方法选择性高、稳定性好，适用于Ａｕ含量在０。２×ｌ０￣－６以上地质样品的分析。     

Effectiveness of pilot carbon emissions trading systems in China

China is in the process of establishing a national emissions trading system (ETS). Evaluating the implementation effectiveness of the seven pilot ETSs in China is critical for designing this national system. This study administered a questionnaire survey to assess the behaviour of enterprises covered by the seven ETS pilots from the perspective of: the strictness of compliance measures; rules for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV); the mitigation pressure felt by enterprises; and actual mitigation and trading activities. The results show that the pilot MRV and compliance rules have not yet been fully implemented. The main factors involved are the lack of compulsory force of the regulations and the lack of policy awareness within the affected enterprises. Most enterprises have a shortage of free allowances and thus believe that the ETSs have increased their production costs. Most enterprises have already established mitigation targets. Some of the covered enterprises are aware of their own internal emission reduction costs and most of these have used this as an important reference in trading. Many enterprises have accounted for carbon prices in their long-term investment. The proportion of enterprises that have participated in trading is fairly high; however, reluctance to sell is quite pervasive in the market, and enterprises are mostly motivated to trade simply in order to achieve compliance. Few enterprises are willing to manage their allowances in a market-oriented manner. Different free allowance allocation methods directly affect the pathways enterprises take to control emissions.

Key policy insights

• In the national ETS, the compulsory force of ETS provisions should be strengthened.

• A reasonable level of free allowance shortage should be ensured to promote emission reduction by enterprises.

• Sufficient information should be provided to guide enterprises in their allowance management to activate the market.

• To promote the implementation of mitigation technologies by enterprises, actual output-based allocation methods should be used.

• The government should use market adjustment mechanisms, such as a price floor and ceiling, to ensure that carbon prices are reasonable and stable, so as to guide long-term low carbon investment.

     

基于贝叶斯定理的地震危险性概率预测研究

由于地震孕育过程的复杂性和观测技术的局限性,不同地震观测资料表现出异常变化与后续较大地震的对应关系存在不确定性,因此对预测意见进行概率表达是一种科学恰当的做法。本文基于泊松分布的危险区背景地震概率预测和单项预测方法(包括测震、流体、形变、电磁等学科)的历史预测效能,采用贝叶斯定理计算得到单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果,进而采用综合概率方法,给出基于多种单项预测方法的短期或年度地震危险概率预测结果。短期概率预测初步结果表明,2018年2～9月,中国大陆72%的5级以上地震都位于相对高概率预测区域。     

SVM方法在武汉区域夏季暴雨预报业务中的应用

以2003～2006年ECMWF数值预报产品、Japan和T213降水预报场资料为基础,应用支持向量机（SVM）方法和CMSVM应用软件平台,通过对训练样本进行交叉验证和模型核参数的逐渐逼近,分区建立了武汉区域16,个区SVM24h暴雨预报模型,并在武汉区域5～7月进行实时业务应用。通过预报结果检验,5～7月武汉区域暴雨预报TS评分为33．59％,其中湖北省平均成绩为34．69％、湖南省平均成绩为34．15％、河南省平均成绩为31．71％。检验结果较好,表明SVM方法在区域性暴雨预报中具有一定的预报能力和参考价值。     

粤港澳大湾区气溶胶对白天城市热岛强度的影响

以粤港澳大湾区为例,利用卫星遥感资料结合大气化学模式模拟,分析2003―2018年城市热岛强度、气溶胶光学厚度的变化规律,定性和定量研究气溶胶对白天城市热岛强度的影响。结果表明：2003―2018年粤港澳大湾区城市热岛强度呈波动上升趋势,夏季热岛强度最大,冬季热岛强度最小;气溶胶光学厚度呈波动下降趋势,春季气溶胶光学厚度最大,冬季气溶胶光学厚度最小。在年际和季节尺度,城市热岛强度与城区、郊区气溶胶光学厚度之差均呈弱的正相关。基于WRF-Chem的模拟实验表明,气溶胶的存在导致城区、郊区地表向下总辐射减少、地表温度降低,且城区地表向下总辐射减少多于郊区、降温幅度大于郊区,进而导致了热岛强度减弱。气溶胶对城市热岛强度的贡献率为?2.187%,冬季贡献率绝对值略高于夏季。