Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

宝钢引水库大坝水平位移监测评价和变形分析

本文对宝钢引水库大坝的水平位移监测网的布设方案,采用灵敏度和可靠性准则进行了网的优化设计计算,从监测网的质量准则出发,对布网方案作了若干探讨。从二十五期观测资料中选出十三期进行了水平位移计算和变形的几何分析。指出,在变形分析中正确选取基准的重要意义和据多期位移值进行变形预报的一些方法,并定性地讨论了该大坝变形的物理解释。本文所作的工作对类似大坝的水平位移监测和成果处理具有实际意义。     

Coronal mass ejections: Some possibilities for prediction

The onset stage of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is difficult to observe and is poorly studied. In spite of their practical importance, methods for CME predictions with sufficient lead times are only in the nascent stages of development. The most probable CME mechanism is a catastrophic loss of equilibrium of a large-scale current system in the corona (a flux rope). A twisted magnetic rope is maintained by the tension of field lines of photospheric sources until parameters of the system reach critical values and the equilibrium is lost. Unfortunately, there is low-density plasma (coronal cavity) in most of the rope volume; thus, it is difficult to observe a rope. However, the lower parts of the helical field lines of a rope are fine traps for the dense cold plasma of prominences. Thus, prominences are the best tracers of flux ropes in the corona. The maximal height up to which the rope is in stable equilibrium can be found by analyzing the distribution of the magnetic field generated by photospheric sources in the corona. Comparing this critical height with the actually observed prominence height, one can estimate the probability of the loss of equilibrium by a magnetic rope with a following eruption of prominences and coronal mass ejections.     

Late Weichselian fluvio‐aeolian sands and coversands of the type locality Grubbenvorst (southern Netherlands): sedimentary environments,climate record and age

The Weichselian Late Pleniglacial and Lateglacial aeolian stratigraphy (Older Coversand I, Beuningen Gravel Bed, Older Coversand II, Younger Coversand I, Usselo Soil, Younger Coversand II) in the southern Netherlands has been reinvestigated in its type locality (Grubbenvorst). Sedimentary environments have been reconstructed and related to their climatic evolution based on periglacial structures. In addition, 22 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages have been determined that provide an absolute chronology for the climatic evolution and environmental changes of the coversand area. From this work it appears that, prior to 25 ka fluvial deposition by the Maas dominated. After 25 ka fluvial activity reduced and deposition occurred in a fluvio‐aeolian environment with continuous permafrost (Older Coversand I). This depositional phase was dated between 25.2 ± 2.0 and 17.2 ± 1.2 ka. The upward increase of aeolian activity and cryogenic structures in this unit is related to an increase of climatic aridity and a decrease in sedimentation rate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The Beuningen Gravel Bed, that results from deflation with polar desert conditions and that represents a stratigraphic marker in northwestern Europe, was bracketed between 17.2 ± 1.2 and 15.3 ± 1.0 ka. Based on this age result a correlation with Heinrich event H1 is suggested. Permafrost degradation occurred at the end of this period. Optical ages for the Older Coversand II unit directly overlying the Beuningen Gravel Bed range from 15.3 ± 1.0 ka at the base to 12.7 ± 0.9 ka at the top. Thus this regionally important Older Coversand II unit started at the end of the Late Pleniglacial and continued throughout the early Lateglacial. Its formation after the Late Pleniglacial (LP) maximum cold and its preservation are related to rapid climatic warming around 14.7 ka cal. BP. The Allerød age of the Usselo Soil was confirmed by the optical ages. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High‐grade localized metasomatic alteration of the granitic gneiss surrounding a clinopyroxene‐rich pegmatoid dyke: Söndrum stenhuggeriet,Halmstad, SW Sweden

The Söndrum stone quarry (Halmstad, SW Sweden) exposes a transition from migmatized granitic gneissic country rock into a foliated clinopyroxene‐free granitic gneiss, and then a central pegmatoid dyke dominated by clinopyroxene megacrysts. This transition zone represents a fracture‐controlled, fluid‐alteration zone that developed under conditions of 650–700 °C and 790 MPa. Mineral chemical trends in F, Cl, Fe, Ti, Mn and Y are interpreted as documenting a fluid infiltration event associated with the formation of the pegmatoid dyke. Fluid inclusions from the pegmatoid dyke are CO₂ dominant, whereas in the surrounding country rock they are dominated by H₂O‐NaCl‐CaCl₂. Fluid inclusions from the intermediate foliated clinopyroxene‐free granitic gneiss are a mixture of the two types. The pegmatoid dyke appears to have originated from a high Ca activity, Fe‐Mg enriched, fluid‐rich granitic melt with a CO₂ component, which was emplaced along a tectonic fracture in a regionally migmatized granitic gneiss in the lower crust. This was accompanied by limited partial melting of the surrounding granitic gneiss. The Ca activity of the melt was high enough to allow for the formation of clinopyroxene megacrysts as opposed to orthopyroxene. H₂O‐enriched fluids expelled from the crystallizing pegmatoid dyke, which retained the majority of the CO₂ helping to stabilize the clinopyroxene. The expelled fluids coarsened and chemically affected the surrounding country rock resulting in trends in the mineral and fluid inclusion chemistry seen today in the foliated and regional granitic gneiss.     

Two‐stage Variscan metamorphism in the Canigou massif: Evidence for crustal thickening in the Pyrenees

The Variscan metamorphism in the Pyrenees is dominantly of the low‐pressure–high‐temperature (LP‐HT) type. The relics of an earlier, Barrovian‐type metamorphism that could be related to orogenic crustal thickening are unclear and insufficiently constrained. A microstructural and petrological study of micaschists underlying an Ordovician augen orthogneiss in the core of the Canigou massif (Eastern Pyrenees, France) reveals the presence of two syntectonic metamorphic stages characterized by the crystallization of staurolite (M1) and andalusite (M2), respectively. Garnet is stable during the two metamorphic stages with a period of resorption between M1 and M2. The metamorphic assemblages M1 and M2 record similar peak temperatures of 580°C at different pressure conditions of 5.5 and 3 kbar, respectively. Using chemical zoning of garnet and calculated P–T pseudosections, a prograde P–T path is constrained with a peak pressure at ~6.5 kbar and 550°C. This P–T path, syntectonic with respect to the first foliation S1, corresponds to a cold gradient (of ~9°C/km), suggestive of crustal thickening. Resorption of garnet between M1 and M2 can be interpreted either in terms of a simple clockwise P–T path or a polymetamorphic two‐stage evolution. We argue in favour of the latter, where the medium‐pressure (Barrovian) metamorphism is followed by a period of significant erosion and crustal thinning leading to decompression and cooling. Subsequent advection of heat, probably from the mantle, leads to a new increase in temperature, coeval with the development of the main regional fabric S2. LA‐ICP‐MS U–Th–Pb dating of monazite yields a well‐defined date at c. 300 Ma. Petrological evidence indicates that monazite crystallization took place close to the M1 peak pressure conditions. However, the similarity between this age and that of the extensive magmatic event well documented in the eastern Pyrenees suggests that it probably corresponds to the age of monazite recrystallization during the M2 LP‐HT event.     

On the presence of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Stephanodiscus niagarae</Emphasis> Ehrenberg in central Mexico

Stephanodiscus niagarae is frequently reported from late Pleistocene (>10,000 yr BP) sediments in central Mexico, with lower abundances through the Holocene. Its presence in Holocene and modern environments in central Mexico was not well documented until our study, where we report on three populations of S. niagarae, one middle Holocene population with particularly high abundance from the Upper Lerma Basin, and two modern sites, Valle de Bravo and Santa Elena. The three sites are located in the same geographical area, in the State of Mexico. The fossil material dates to ca. 6600–4900 yr BP, with S. niagarae reaching up to 90% of the diatom counts. Stephanodiscus niagarae is present in association with Fragilaria pinnata, F. brevistriata, and Aulacoseira granulata. In Valle de Bravo (ca. 30 m deep) S. niagarae is present in very low numbers in water column and surface sediments samples (<1%); the diatom assemblage is dominated by Fragilaria crotonensis in association with A. granulata, A. granulata var. curvata and Cyclotella ocellata. In Santa Elena, a shallow, intermittent irrigation channel, S. niagarae is the second most abundant alga; the diatom assemblage is dominated by S. niagarae in association with A. granulata, A. granulata var. curvata and F. crotonensis. Both modern sites show a trend to eutrophy and these diatom assemblages are taken as indicative of this trend. It is suggested researchers should be cautions when the presence of S. niagarae in sedimentary records is taken as indicative of deep waters conditions, as the present data show that this species can thrive in rather shallow environments in Mexico.     

Spatial patterns of old, deep-seated landslides: A case-study in the northern Ethiopian highlands

During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km² study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.     

Two-stage partial melting during the Variscan extensional tectonics (Montagne Noire,France)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - One of the striking features that characterise the late stages of the Variscan orogeny is the development of gneiss and migmatite domes, as well as...     

The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise on the Netherlands: A study of possible scenarios

This paper describes a simulation study of some of the socio-economic consequences of a rise in sea level on Dutch society. A computer simulation model for the greenhouse problem has been developed, which tries to capture the climate change cause-effect relationship for a combination of greenhouse-gas emissions. The impact of emissions of greenhouse gases on global temperature and sea-level rise can be calculated using the model. Additionally, separate, independent modules have been implemented in order to quantify the socio-economic consequences for the Netherlands. Four consistent sets of scenarios have been developed, based on differences in economic growth, energy use, international environmental measures, etc. On the basis of these scenarios estimates are made of the costs of coastal defence and water management in the Netherlands as a result of adaptation to the impacts of sea-level rise.