Responsibility for Past and Future Global Warming: Uncertainties in Attributing Anthropogenic Climate Change

During the negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil proposed a methodology to link the relative contribution of Annex I Parties to emission reductions with the relative contributions of Parties to the global-mean temperature increase. The proposal was not adopted during the negotiations but referred to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice for consideration of its methodological aspects. In this context we analyze the impact of model uncertainties and methodological choices on the regionally attributed global-mean temperature increase. A climate assessment model has been developed to calculate changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, global-mean temperature and sea-level rise attributable to individual regions. The analysis shows the impact of the different choices in methodological aspects to be as important as the impact of model uncertainties on a region's contribution to present and future global temperature increases. Choices may be the inclusion of the anthropogenic non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions and/or theCO₂ emissions associated with land-use changes. When responsibility to global temperature change is attributed to all emitting Parties, the impacts of modeling uncertainties and methodological choices on contributions of individual Parties are considerable. However, if relative contributions are calculated only within the group of Annex I countries, the results are less sensitive to the uncertainty aspects considered here.     

用灰色统计决策法作大气环境质量评价

本文把大气环境质量评价问题作为灰色统计决策过程处理。实例计算和分析表明:本文的方法不仅能对大气环境质量作出客观、综合评价,而且能同时确定各评价因子在评价等级中的权重,对实例的评价结果与实际情况相吻合。     

Geochemical constraints of the eclogite and granulite facies metamorphism as recognized in the Raobazhai complex from North Dabie Shan,China

A combined study of major and trace elements, fluid inclusions and oxygen isotopes has been carried out on garnet pyroxenite from the Raobazhai complex in the North Dabie Terrane (NDT). Well‐preserved compositional zoning with Na decreasing and Ca and Mg increasing from the core to rim of pyroxene in the garnet pyroxenite indicates eclogite facies metamorphism at the peak metamorphic stage and subsequent granulite facies metamorphism during uplift. A P–T path with substantial heating (from c. 750 to 900 °C) after the maximum pressure reveals a different uplift history compared with most other eclogites in the South Dabie Terrane (SDT). Fluid inclusion data can be correlated with the metamorphic grade: the fluid regime during the peak metamorphism (eclogite facies) was dominated by N₂‐bearing NaCl‐rich solutions, whereas it changed into CO₂‐dominated fluids during the granulite facies retrograde metamorphism. At a late retrograde metamorphic stage, probably after amphibolite facies metamorphism, some external low‐salinity fluids were involved. In situ UV‐laser oxygen isotope analysis was undertaken on a 7 mm garnet, and impure pyroxene, amphibole and plagioclase. The nearly homogeneous oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O_VSMOW = c. 6.7‰) in the garnet porphyroblast indicates closed fluid system conditions during garnet growth. However, isotopic fractionations between retrograde phases (amphibole and plagioclase) and garnet show an oxygen isotopic disequilibrium, indicating retrograde fluid–rock interactions. Unusual MORB‐like rare earth element (REE) patterns for whole rock of the garnet pyroxenite contrast with most ultra‐high‐pressure (UHP) eclogites in the Dabie‐Sulu area. However, the age‐corrected initial ε_Nd(t) is ? 2.9, which indicates that the protolith of the garnet pyroxenite was derived from an enriched mantle rather than from a MORB source. Combined with the present data of oxygen isotopic compositions and the characteristic N₂ content in the fluid inclusions, we suggest that the protolith of the garnet pyroxenite from Raobazhai formed in an enriched mantle fragment, which has been exposed to the surface prior to the Triassic metamorphism.     

Zoned finite strip method and its applications in geomechanics

The technique of Finite Strip method has been extended for zoned strips. One strip can have several different materials in horizontal direction including dummy materials. The new developed zoned Finite Strip (Z.F.S.) method has many engineering applications, particularly in geomechanical problems. The formulation is presented and three different geotechnical problems have been solved using the new Z.F.S. method, which could not be solved by the original Finite Strip method. The results are compared with the solution for the same problems obtained by analytical and/or numerical (Finite Element) methods. The reduced input and output for the Z.F.S. method compared to the Finite Element method makes this method attractive particularly for practising engineers. However the results can be as good as the well known Finite Element method.     

Measurement of the prominences magnetic field

A new type of magnetograph has been built capable to measure weak magnetic fields in the chromosphere and corona. Measurements of magnetic field in two prominences are demonstrated as examples.     

Observations of beam propagation

We discuss the observational evidence for propagating electron distributions in the solar corona as obtained from type III observations. The location of the beam acceleration region together with the effects of the ambient medium on beam propagation are discussed in the framework of recent observational and theoretical developments. The results of combined X-ray and radio observations obtained during and after the Solar Maximum Year are summarized. Special attention is paid to the effect of the small-scale structure of the corona on the observed radio emission. We outline various desirable developments which are necessary to improve the understanding of the behaviour of charged particle beams in magnetized plasmas.     

Determination of copper complexation with natural organic ligands in seawater by equilibration with MnO2 I. Theory

The theory is discussed which describes the distribution of copper ions between a weak ion exchanger, as exemplified by MnO₂, and natural organic complexing material in seawater. Application of this theory and experimental procedures are outlined in part II of this series. It is apparent from the theory that titration with Cu²⁺ of one or more organic complexing ligands can be graphically represented by straight lines; slope and y-axis intercept provide information on the conditional stability constants and the ligand concentrations. Model calculations show that measurement of metal complexation at ligand concentrations higher than normally present in seawater may produce erroneous results because of possible changes in the metal to ligand ratio in the complexes. It is therefore advisable to measure metal complexation in the original, unaltered, water sample.     

Calculating the potential magnetic field of a local region on the Sun using the measured oblique component

We propose a method for solving the Neumann boundary-value problem using the known magnetic-field component at the boundary in a specified direction (the oblique-derivative problem). The method allows the normal field component at the boundary to be directly determined from the measured line-of-sight component. This makes it possible to calculate the potential magnetic field in the corona above a region far removed from the solar-disk center. A model potential magnetic field is used as an example to test our method.     

A comparison of discrete and continuous intrusion models for the thermal structure of the plates

Summary. We have obtained the temperature solution for a thermal model of the plates in which material is emplaced at discrete intervals rather than spreading continuously. The time-averaged heat flux and integrated heat flux for this discrete instrusion model are finite everywhere, differing from that given by a one-dimensional cooling model within a few intrusion widths of the ridge axis. In the limit as the intrusion width and period of emplacement tend to zero the temperature solution away from the ridge axis becomes that given by a modified plate model where a thermal balance boundary condition instead of a constant temperature condition is applied at the ridge axis. The integrated heat loss from a limited age interval about the ridge differs negligibly from that given by the one-dimensional cooling model or the modified plate model provided the interval extends more than two intrusion widths from the ridge axis.