The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent.     

Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification

The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.     

Trace element distribution and risk assessment in South Indian surface waterways

The concentrations of 27 major and trace elements are determined in surface water samples collected from 48 sites of diverse waterways in four states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Telangana) of South India. The aims of this study are to identify the element distribution, comparatively assess the pollution risk, and evaluate human health risks related to diverse waterways in the study area. The results indicate that elements such as Cr, Se, As, Fe, and Mn are the major pollutants, as their concentrations exceeded the acceptable national and international water quality standards in several sites of Ennore, Adyar, Cooum, Periyar, and Vrishabhavathi rivers. Furthermore, statistical analysis reveals that the Ennore, Adyar, Cooum, Periyar, and Kaveri river basins are affected by various anthropogenic activities, leading to moderate-to-high pollution by As, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Se. Potential pollution sources are industrial waste, sewage intrusion, paint industry waste, and automobile runoff. Overall, the investigated sites are categorized into three major groups: highly, moderately, and least polluted. Risk on human health by metals is then evaluated using hazard quotients (HQs) and carcinogenic risk evaluation; the results indicated that As with HQ >1 is the most hazardous pollutant, which could lead to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic concerns, particularly in children. This study helps in establishing pollutant loading reduction goal and the total maximum daily loads and consequently contributes to preserving public health and developing water conservation strategies.     

The sensitivity of the northern hemisphere summer mean meridional circulation to changes in the large scale eddy forcing

A zonally averaged version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) climate model is used to study the sensitivity of the northern hemisphere (NH) summer mean meridional circulation to changes in the large scale eddy forcing. A standard solution is obtained by prescribing the latent heating field and climatological horizontal transports of heat and momentum by the eddies. The radiative heating and surface fluxes are calculated by model parameterizations. This standard solution is compared with the results of several sensitivity studies. When the eddy forcing is reduced to 0.5 times or increased to 1.5 times the climatological values, the strength of the Ferrel cells decrease or increase proportionally. It is also seen that such changes in the eddy forcing can influence the strength of theNH Hadley cell significantly. Possible impact of such changes in the large scale eddy forcing on the monsoon circulation via changes in the Hadley circulation is discussed. Sensitivity experiments including only one component of eddy forcing at a time show that the eddy momentum fluxes seem to be more important in maintaining the Ferrel cells than the eddy heat fluxes. In the absence of the eddy heat fluxes, the observed eddy momentum fluxes alone produce subtropical westerly jets which are weaker than those in the standard solution. On the other hand, the observed eddy heat fluxes alone produce subtropical westerly jets which are stronger than those in the standard solution.     

Assessment of citrus crop condition in Umling block of Ri-Bhoi district using RS and GIS technique

Orange orchards of Meghalaya are small in size and are found together with other plants on the slopes of hills. It is also reported that the productivity of orchards is declining in some parts of the state. Therefore in this study, we have attempted to map areas prone to citrus productivity decline based on the integrated effect of soil erosion, vegetation condition and moisture stress. It is difficult to identify orchards on hilly terrain using standard FCC of IRS-P6 LISS III data. Hence, an enhanced color composite image was prepared from three images generated from indices namely SBI, NDWI and NDVI. This enhanced color image was classified using the maximum likelihood classification method and enabled identifying villages prone to citrus decline. The study shows that orchards of 29 villages which are suffering from moisture stress and mostly located on steep slopes that cause heavy soil loss leading to nutrient imbalances are prone to citrus decline. These data will be useful in mapping potential citrus decline areas over zones having similar climatic conditions so that the concerned state horticulture/agriculture departments and citrus growers can take necessary remedial actions.     

Utilization of high-resolution EGM2008 gravity data for geological exploration over the Singhbhum-Orissa Craton,India

High-resolution EIGEN6C4 and EGM2008 Bouguer gravity data of 2190 degree spherical harmonic over the Singhbhum-Orissa Craton, India, have been generated from the International Centre for Global Earth Models. The Bouguer gravity anomaly difference maps of (i) in situ and EIGEN6C4, (ii) in situ and EGM2008 and iii) EIGEN6C4 and EGM2008 of the study area are compared. It reveals that EIGEN6C4 has lesser systematic error than EGM2008. However, from different profile plots of Bouguer gravity, east–west horizontal derivative and north–south horizontal derivative anomalies of the in situ, EIGEN6C4 and EGM2008, it is observed that most of the signatures of lithounits and geological structural elements are delineated very well by EGM2008 and match 94–98% with those of EIGEN6C4. Further, the Bouguer gravity, east–west horizontal derivative and north–south horizontal derivative anomalies of EGM2008 data over the study area have been used effectively for identifying various lithounits and geological structural elements.