国家气象中心气象要素的客观预报——MOS系统

面向全国2000多个台站，应用数值预报产品释用MOS技术制作温度、降水、相对湿度、风、云量及能见度等要素预报，并实现了预报业务运行。通过建立MOS预报系统，表明预报因子和预报对象的处理，建方程前的参数选择以及预报因子的选取都会影响要素预报的质量，需要做大量的细致工作。预报检验结果显示，降水预报尚未达到可用程度，温度和相对湿度的短期预报在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的，但还有待进一步改进。降水预报尚需在预报因子和充分运用多种探测信息方面着手加以改进。     

滇黔北威信凹陷晚二叠世沉积环境与层序地层格架下的聚煤规律浅析

针对滇黔北威信凹陷晚二叠世含煤岩系的“海相-海陆过渡相-陆相”三相变化地带,利用地层剖面上的沉积构造、岩石组合、古生物特征等沉积相判别标志分析研究区的沉积环境及其空间演化,并总结煤质变化规律。在此基础上,通过识别层序与体系域关键界面,建立研究区晚二叠世含煤岩系的层序地层格架,充分讨论研究区厚煤层在层序地层格架下的聚煤规律。研究区自西向东依次为河流冲积平原体系、三角洲-潮坪体系及碳酸盐岩台地体系,成煤环境主要为河流冲积平原中的泛滥盆地河漫沼泽和三角洲-潮坪沉积体系中的上三角洲平原;厚煤层在层序地层中的位置与古地理背景有关,研究区C15,C19煤层形成于最大海泛面附近,C25煤层形成于初始海泛面附近;根据煤质变化规律和煤厚变化特征,在研究区西部的彝良-盐津一带有寻找优质煤炭资源的潜力。     

辽河西部凹陷曙北地区沙四段薄砂层成因类型及分布规律

为了明确辽河西部凹陷曙北地区沙河街组四段薄砂层成因类型及分布规律,从岩心、测井响应和地震反射特征等方面总结了各类成因薄砂层的识别标志,并预测了各砂层组的砂体展布,探讨了砂体发育的控制因素,总结了沉积模式.研究结果表明,曙北地区沙四段为扇三角洲-湖泊的沉积体系,薄砂层发育水下分流河道、河口坝、低隆滩坝、沿岸浅滩4种成因类型,其中以水下分流河道和低隆滩坝为主.古地貌、古物源和古水深控制了各类砂体的展布.以曙光和兴隆台古潜山一线为界,南部为扇三角洲体系沉积区,主要发育前缘水下分流河道和河口坝;北部（包括低隆区）为无明显水流注入的半封闭湖湾区,主要发育低隆滩坝砂体和灰/云坪,在西侧沿岸局部地区还发育沿岸浅滩.储量区外大面积发育的低隆滩坝砂体,是下一步碎屑岩增储上产的潜在接替区域.     

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿地下水串层污染形成原因及防治

淄博市洪山、寨里煤矿区隐伏的奥陶系灰岩裂隙岩溶水污染严重。水质污染突发于矿坑全面闭坑以后，污染范围与矿坑水区一致，地下水污染组份与矿坑水的高含量组份相同。水质恶化主要由矿坑水串层污染所致。在此针对串层污染形成原因及影响因素，提出了防治对策。     

Shipborne GPS attitude determination during MMST-93

The attitude parameters of a ship underway were measured using a configuration of four 10-channel NovAtel Model 951 narrow-correlator-spacing receivers. These C/A code receivers have output rates of up to 10 Hz and maintain effective carrier phase lock under relatively harsh ship dynamics. The attitude parameters are calculated independently at each epoch using differential carrier phase measurements, carrier phase ambiguities are resolved on-the-fly by constraining the approximately known distances between the antennas that are rigidly mounted on the ship. Carrier phase thermal noise and multipath are minimized by mounting the antennas as far apart as possible. The four-antenna configuration provides redundancy and further improves accuracy. During the Matthew Motion Sensor Trials (MMST-93) conducted off the coast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, in June-July 1993, the GPS-derived attitude parameters were compared with those obtained with a Honeywell HG1050 ring laser gyro inertial navigation system (INS) which provides roll and pitch with an accuracy of 15 arcsecs and heading with an accuracy of 2 arcmins. To simulate rough weather conditions, sharp maneuvers were performed to induce roll angles in excess of 10°. No accuracy degradation nor any loss of GPS measurements occurred. The RMS agreement between GPS and INS derived attitude parameters is better than 2 arcmins in heading, 1 arcmin in pitch and 3 arcmins in roll. This level of accuracy demonstrates the capability of GPS for cost-effective shipborne attitude determination at an accuracy level of 0.05     

高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。      

四川盆地西北部二叠系栖霞阶层序地层特征及地质意义

基于露头、钻井岩心和测录井资料,采用层序地层学理论与方法,将四川盆地西北部二叠系梁山组+栖霞组作为一个整体予以解剖,识别出梁山组底界面(Ⅰ型)、栖一段与栖二段界面(Ⅱ型)和栖霞组与茅口组界面(Ⅰ型)3个三级层序界面,将中二叠统栖霞阶划分为2个三级层序: 下部的SQ1层序对应梁山组+栖一段,上部的SQ2层序对应栖二段。通过栖霞阶层序地层格架分析,发现栖霞阶地层存在“底超顶削”的充填规律,统计并绘制SQ1与SQ2层序地层厚度等值线图,对研究区栖霞阶SQ1初期和SQ2期构造—古地理格局进行了恢复,在明确SQ2期为栖霞阶主要成滩期的基础上,结合岩溶发育单元及白云岩展布特征,讨论栖霞阶油气储集意义。结果表明:区内栖霞阶存在北西、北东向隆坳分异,汉南隆起、川北隆起、北缘隆起与广元—旺苍凹陷始终控制了区内沉积格局,指出广元—旺苍海槽雏形始于二叠系栖霞阶。研究区岩溶白云岩孔洞型储集层区与环广元—旺苍凹陷周缘的灰岩岩溶型储集层区为有利的勘探区。     

Ecological quality assessment of small estuaries from the Portuguese coast based on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages indices

Benthic macroinvertebrates communities are the most consistently emphasized biotic component of aquatic ecosystems and are one of the biological indicators required for assessment by the European Water Framework Directive. In this context, several indices based on these communities have been developed in order to assess ecological quality of estuarine systems. In the present work we used AMBI, M-AMBI, BENTIX and BAT to distinguish ecological status of five small estuarine systems of the Portuguese south and southwest coasts. Although indices outputs did not differ between systems and sampling seasons, results indicated that the metrics in which these indices are based could differentiate community structures as a result of two main gradients that force these communities: the natural variability, and the anthropogenic impact.     

自动气象站的网络化构想

本文是针对气象服务社会的这个宗旨,在自动气象站正式运行之后,应用路由器、交换机、微机ADSL宽带网络等通信设备和通信方式,对气象数据进行网络化管理和使用,提高气象信息的使用率。     

南极企鹅粪土沉积柱样、蛋卵中OCPs、PCBs含量分布及其环境意义

对南极阿德雷岛企鹅栖息地粪土层进行210Pb测年,同时采用气相色谱-电子捕获检测器(GC-ECD)内标定量法测定了企鹅栖息地粪土混合地层和企鹅蛋卵中有机氯污染物含量,粪土混合地层中有机氯污染物最高浓度:表层PCBs为0.92ng/g,HCHs为0.42ng/g,DDTs在0.70ng/g,与非栖息地相比较,研究结果显示,通过鸟类活动的粪土混合地层(营巢和粪便)输入PCBs和OCPs含量比无鸟类生命途径的土壤相对要高。企鹅蛋卵样∑PCB在0.4-10.2ng/g,∑DDT2.4-10.3ng/g,HCB0.1-9.4ng/g,∑HCH0.1-0.5ng/g,总积蓄水平依次为:∑PCB>∑DDT>HCB>∑HCH。