A direct scaling analysis for the sea level rise

The estimation of long-term sea level variability is of primary importance for a climate change assessment. Despite the value of the subject, no scientific consensus has yet been reached on the existing acceleration in observed values. The existence of this acceleration is crucial for coastal protection planning purposes. The absence of the acceleration would enhance the debate on the general validity of current future projections. Methodologically, the evaluation of the acceleration is a controversial and still open discussion, reported in a number of review articles, which illustrate the state-of-art in the field of sea level research. In the present paper, the well-proven direct scaling analysis approach is proposed in order to describe the long-term sea level variability at 12 worldwide-selected tide gauge stations. For each of the stations, it has been shown that the long-term sea level variability exhibits a trimodal scaling behaviour, which can be modelled by a power law with three different pairs of shape and scale parameters. Compared to alternative methods in literature, which take into account multiple correlated factors, this simple method allows to reduce the uncertainties on the sea level rise parameters estimation.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.     

An improved earthquake catalogue (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 4.0) for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012)

Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, M_w; surface wave magnitude, M_S; body-wave magnitude m_b; local magnitude M_L and duration magnitude M_d) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of M_w. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas.     

Active fault database of Turkey

We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity.     

Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.     

Equilibrium modeling of the beach profile on a macrotidal embayed low tide terrace beach

Eleven-year long time series of monthly beach profile surveys and hourly incident wave conditions are analyzed for a macrotidal Low Tide Terrace beach. The lower intertidal zone of the beach has a pluriannual cycle, whereas the upper beach profile has a predominantly seasonal cycle. An equilibrium model is applied to study the variation of the contour elevation positions in the intertidal zone as a function of the wave energy, wave power, and water level. When forcing the model with wave energy, the predictive ability of the equilibrium model is around 60% in the upper intertidal zone but decreases to 40% in the lower intertidal zone. Using wave power increases the predictive ability up to 70% in both the upper and lower intertidal zones. However, changes around the inflection point are not well predicted. The equilibrium model is then extended to take into account the effects of the tide level. The initial results do not show an increase in the predictive capacity of the model, but do allow the model free parameters to represent more accurately the values expected in a macrotidal environment. This allows comparing the empirical model calibration in different tidal environment. The interpretation of the model free parameter variation across the intertidal zone highlights the behavior of the different zones along the intertidal beach profile. This contributes to a global interpretation of the four model parameters for beaches with different tidal ranges, and therefore to a global model applicable at a wide variety sites.     

The effect of geometry and tidal forcing on hydrodynamics and net sediment transport in semi-enclosed tidal basins

A new depth-averaged exploratory model has been developed to investigate the hydrodynamics and the tidally averaged sediment transport in a semi-enclosed tidal basin. This model comprises the two-dimensional (2DH) dynamics in a tidal basin that consists of a channel of arbitrary length, flanked by tidal flats, in which the water motion is being driven by an asymmetric tidal forcing at the seaward side. The equations are discretized in space by means of the finite element method and solved in the frequency domain. In this study, the lateral variations of the tidal asymmetry and the tidally averaged sediment transport are analyzed, as well as their sensitivity to changes in basin geometry and external overtides. The Coriolis force is taken into account. It is found that the length of the tidal basin and, to a lesser extent, the tidal flat area and the convergence length determine the behaviour of the tidally averaged velocity and the overtides and consequently control the strength and the direction of the tidally averaged sediment transport. Furthermore, the externally prescribed overtides can have a major influence on tidal asymmetry in the basin, depending on their amplitude and phase. Finally, for sufficiently wide tidal basins, the Coriolis force generates significant lateral dynamics.     

Dispersion features of transmitted channel waves and inversion of coal seam thickness

In-seam seismic survey currently is a hot geophysical exploration technology used for the prediction of coal seam thickness in China. Many studies have investigated the relationship between the group velocity of channel wave at certain frequency and the actual thickness of exposed coal beds. But these results are based on statistics and not universally applicable to predict the thickness of coal seams. In this study, we first theoretically analyzed the relationship between the depth and energy distribution of multi-order Love-type channel waves and found that when the channel wave wavelength is smaller than the thickness of the coal seam, the energy is more concentrated, while when the wavelength is greater than the thickness, the energy reduces linearly. We then utilized the numerical simulation technology to obtain the signal of the simulated Love-type channel wave, analyzed its frequency dispersion, and calculated the theoretical dispersion curves. The results showed that the dispersion characteristics of the channel wave are closely related to the thickness of coal seam, and the shear wave velocity of the coal seam and its surrounding rocks. In addition, we for the first time realized the joint inversion of multi-order Love-type channel waves based on the genetic algorithm and inversely calculated the velocities of shear wave in both coal seam and its surrounding rocks and the thickness of the coal seam. In addition, we found the group velocity dispersion curve of the single-channel transmitted channel wave using the time–frequency analysis and obtained the phase velocity dispersion curve based on the mathematical relationship between the group and phase velocities. Moreover, we employed the phase velocity dispersion curve to complete the inversion of the above method and obtain the predicted coal seam thickness. By comparing the geological sketch of the coal mining face, we found that the predicted coal seam thickness is in good agreement with the actual thickness. Overall, adopting the channel wave inversion method that creatively uses the complete dispersion curve can obtain the shear wave velocities of the coal and its surrounding rocks, and analyzing the depth of the abruptly changed shear wave velocity can accurately obtain the thickness of the coal seam. Therefore, our study proved that this inversion method is feasible to be used in both simulation experiments and actual detection.