黑河流域大气资料尺度转换的对比分析

尺度转换是解决尺度差异问题的有效方法之一。尺度转换统计模式的可靠性和正确性如何,在很大程度上取决于建立统计模式时所用的实际气象资料的处理,尤其在下垫面分布极不均匀地区。本文研究了黑河流域这一复杂下垫面条件下的大气资料的尺度转换问题,对比分析了由NCEP再分析资料直接内插到较小尺度而得到的局地气候变化与由尺度转换统计模式,经过客观分析所得到的局地气候变化。结果表明,直接插值所得的细网格值只能用于对平坦地区的温、湿状况的描述,而对较高山区的区域特征描述不够;进行观测资料的客观分析可以更准确地反映黑河流域复杂下垫面背景下近地层大气要素场的变化。研究表明,客观分析过程是尺度转换过程的重要环节。     

东亚冷空气爆发后陆地变性的物理过程研究

本文对1981年不同月份8次东亚冷空气活动的陆地变性过程进行了分析。首先,用相似理论方法,直接计算了地面的感热和潜热的湍流交换及拖曳系数,又利用收支法和物理参数化方法计算了视热源视水汽汇的收支以及长短波辐射的加热和冷却作用。发现南下冷空气一经离开源地就开始了明显的变性过程。在冬季,变性强度随冷性气团向东南移动而逐渐增强,到达海上时变性最剧烈;在夏季,温湿变性最大区出现在我国北方,并且在陆上的变性强度比冬季要强得多。     

Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System model version 2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by generating 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001–2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasted rainfall becomes unity by about 18 days. The potential predictability error of the forecasted rainfall saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are found even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of large-scale MISO amplitude as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. An analysis of categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.     

Early J2 basalts in SE China: Incipience of large-scale late Mesozoic magmatism

Magmatism in SE China was dormant during 204–180 Ma, but was reactivated in 180–170 Ma (early J₂), and then became more and more intensive towards the end of early Cretaceous. The small-scale early J₂ magmatism is the incipience to long-term and large-scale magmatism in this region. A near east-west (EW) trend volcanic belt was distributed across south Hunan, south Jiangxi and southwest Fujian was formed during early J₂ time. Along this belt from the inland toward the coast, the lithology of basalts changes from alkali into tholeiite, and the amount of erupted volcanic rocks and the proportions of rhyolites coexisting with the basalts increase. On the basis of geochemical characteristics of these basalts, we infer that the melting degree of source rocks and the extent of fractional crystallization and crustal contamination all increased whereas the depth of mantle source decreased from the inland to the coast, which led to the variations of geological characteristics of the volcanic belt. In early J₂, the western spreading Pacific plate began to subduct underneath SE China continental block, reactivating near EW trend deep fault that was originally formed during the Indosinian event. The stress of the western spreading Pacific plate and the extent of asthenosphere upwelling increased from the inland to the coast, which is consistent with the generation and evolution of early J₂ basalts.     

Influencing domain of peripheral sources in the urban heavy pollution process of Beijing

Multiple cities in a diveloped economic area may consist of a city cluster,and the difusion and mixing of its pollutants result in the effect of pollutants plume between cities and the large-scale regional pollution diffusion phenomenon.The distant transfer and diffusion of pollutants occurs when massive aerosols are affected by the dynamic porcess of large-scale circulations.Research suggesten that the life span of aerosol particles whose diameters are about 1 um is the longest.The longevity …     

Modelling increased soil cohesion due to roots with EUROSEM

As organic root exudates cause soil particles to adhere firmly to root surfaces, roots significantly increase soil strength and therefore also increase the resistance of the topsoil to erosion by concentrated flow. This paper aims at contributing to a better prediction of the root effects on soil erosion rates in the EUROSEM model, as the input values accounting for roots, presented in the user manual, do not account for differences in root density or root architecture. Recent research indicates that small changes in root density or differences in root architecture considerably influence soil erosion rates during concentrated flow. The approach for incorporating the root effects into this model is based on a comparison of measured soil detachment rates for bare and for root‐permeated topsoil samples with predicted erosion rates under the same flow conditions using the erosion equation of EUROSEM. Through backwards calculation, transport capacity efficiencies and corresponding soil cohesion values can be assessed for bare and root‐permeated topsoils respectively. The results are promising and present soil cohesion values that are in accordance with reported values in the literature for the same soil type (silt loam). The results show that grass roots provide a larger increase in soil cohesion as compared with tap‐rooted species and that the increase in soil cohesion is not significantly different under wet and dry soil conditions, either for fibrous root systems or for tap root systems. Power and exponential relationships are established between measured root density values and the corresponding calculated soil cohesion values, reflecting the effects of roots on the resistance of the topsoil to concentrated flow incision. These relationships enable one to incorporate the root effect into the soil erosion model EUROSEM, through adapting the soil cohesion input value. A scenario analysis shows that the contribution of roots to soil cohesion is very important for preventing soil loss and reducing runoff volume. The increase in soil shear strength due to the binding effect of roots on soil particles is two orders of magnitude lower as compared with soil reinforcement achieved when roots mobilize their tensile strength during soil shearing and root breakage. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strong ground motion record selection for the reliable prediction of the mean seismic collapse capacity of a structure group

How to select a limited number of strong ground motion records (SGMRs) is an important challenge for the seismic collapse capacity assessment of structures. The collapse capacity is considered as the ground motion intensity measure corresponding to the drift‐related dynamic instability in the structural system. The goal of this paper is to select, from a general set of SGMRs, a small number of subsets such that each can be used for the reliable prediction of the mean collapse capacity of a particular group of structures, i.e. of single degree‐of‐freedom systems with a typical behaviour range. In order to achieve this goal, multivariate statistical analysis is first applied, to determine what degree of similarity exists between each selected small subset and the general set of SGMRs. Principal Component analysis is applied to identify the best way to group structures, resulting in a minimum number of SGMRs in a proposed subset. The structures were classified into six groups, and for each group a subset of eight SGMRs has been proposed. The methodology has been validated by analysing a first‐mode‐dominated three‐storey‐reinforced concrete structure by means of the proposed subsets, as well as the general set of SGMRs. The results of this analysis show that the mean seismic collapse capacity can be predicted by the proposed subsets with less dispersion than by the recently developed improved approach, which is based on scaling the response spectra of the records to match the conditional mean spectrum. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

布尔莎模型在GPS时间序列融合中的应用

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”基准网与全球IGS站的公共站点,采用布尔莎模型求取坐标转换7参数,将地壳观测网络工程基准站点位时间序列与全球解进行绑定.结果显示,转换得到的时间序列N、E向中误差约为2、3mm,与直接融合得到的时间序列的单天误差水平相当,转换得到的站间大地线误差大部分在6mm内,表明该转换方法是可行的.     

下垫面对WRF模式模拟黑河流域区域气候精度影响研究

利用高精度的土地覆盖、土壤质地类型和地形高度值替换了天气研究和预报模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)中的相关数据,通过数值模式试验检验了下垫面数据对WRF模拟精度的影响。同时,通过与黑河综合遥感联合试验中7个测站观测数据的比较,以平均误差、均方根误差和相关系数为指标,分析了WRF模式下垫面数据改变对近地表气象要素的模拟精度的影响。结果表明:(1)WRF模式本身的地形高度信息在黑河流域上游地区有较大误差,造成了一定的模拟误差。而使用高精度的下垫面数据可以提高WRF模式在黑河流域上游复杂区域的模拟能力;(2)2m气温除了随地形高度递减外,还受土壤质地和土地覆盖小幅度影响,而且进行地形订正后的2m气温与2m湿度的模拟在下垫面为水体的区域对比强烈,因此为模式提供准确的水体分布信息也至关重要;(3)2m气温和湿度等要素的模拟差异值与地形高度资料的差异呈负相关,而降雨量的差异与地形高度差异呈微弱的正相关,与土壤质地差异和土地覆盖差异的相关性也比较弱。     

豫西龙卷风的时空分布特征及灾情分析

对豫西1949-2008年龙卷风的有关史料调查分析表明:豫西(多丘陵山地)发生龙卷风的概率相对全省较低,富士达分级F0级17次,F1级12次,F2级仅有2次;90年代龙卷风发生较多,主要集中在6-8月,一天之中多出现在下午至傍晚;风力一般都在10级以上,持续时间8-60 min不等,平均25 min.豫西的龙卷风各有2个县(市)发生过4次和3次,7个县(市)发生过2次,11个县(市)发生过1次,其余33个县(市)没有龙卷风的相关记录.在豫西只有相对比较开阔、平坦的地域才可能促生龙卷风.