Objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic – a comparison between the ECMWF and NCEP Reanalyses

Simple and easily reproducible techniques have been used to construct two objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic-European sector. The goal of this study is to increase understanding of cyclones with the potential to cause damage, in particular, those reaching Beaufort category 7 and above. The two climatologies constructed here span the period 1979–2000 and have been developed from reanalysis mean sea level pressure data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) and NCEP (National Centres for Environmental Prediction). The ECMWF reanalysis data are only available for 15 years, and have been extended from 1994 using operational analyses. The major temporal and spatial characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones are examined and a comparison between the climatologies developed from the two data sets is carried out. The well-known cyclogenesis regions along the east coast of the United States and to the southeast of Greenland are replicated by both reanalyses, as is the characteristic southwest/northeast orientation of the dominant cyclone track across the Atlantic basin. However, only weak correlations are found between the time series of cyclone frequency produced from the two reanalyses, and this is particularly true for the lower intensity Beaufort Scale category 0–6 cyclones. This result, together with the large differences in the spatial distribution of cyclones over Greenland for Beaufort Scale 0–6 cyclones, indicates the NCEP reanalyses generates fewer systems than the ECMWF reanalyses. The overall conclusion is that the ECMWF mean sea level pressure data produce a more comprehensive climatology of North Atlantic cyclones at all scales.     

Inclusions in diamonds from the K14 and K10 kimberlites, Buffalo Hills, Alberta, Canada: diamond growth in a plume?

Analyses of mineral inclusions, carbon isotopes, nitrogen contents and nitrogen aggregation states in 29 diamonds from two Buffalo Hills kimberlites in northern Alberta, Canada were conducted. From 25 inclusion bearing diamonds, the following paragenetic abundances were found: peridotitic (48%), eclogitic (32%), eclogitic/websteritic (8%), websteritic (4%), ultradeep? (4%) and unknown (4%). Diamonds containing mineral inclusions of ferropericlase, and mixed eclogitic-asthenospheric-websteritic and eclogitic-websteritic mineral associations suggests the possibility of diamond growth over a range of depths and in a variety of mantle environments (lithosphere, asthenosphere and possibly lower mantle).

Eclogitic diamonds have a broad range of C-isotopic composition (δ¹³C=−21‰ to −5‰). Peridotitic, websteritic and ultradeep diamonds have typical mantle C-isotope values (δ¹³C=−4.9‰ av.), except for two ¹³C-depleted peridotitic (δ¹³C=−11.8‰, −14.6‰) and one ¹³C-depleted websteritic diamond (δ¹³C=−11.9‰). Infrared spectra from 29 diamonds identified two diamond groups: 75% are nitrogen-free (Type II) or have fully aggregated nitrogen defects (Type IaB) with platelet degradation and low to moderate nitrogen contents (av. 330 ppm-N); 25% have lower nitrogen aggregation states and higher nitrogen contents (30% IaB; <1600 ppm-N).

The combined evidence suggests two generations of diamond growth. Type II and Type IaB diamonds with ultradeep, peridotitic, eclogitic and websteritic inclusions crystallised from eclogitic and peridotitic rocks while moving in a dynamic environment from the asthenosphere and possibly the lower mantle to the base of the lithosphere. Mechanisms for diamond movement through the mantle could be by mantle convection, or an ascending plume. The interaction of partial melts with eclogitic and peridotitic lithologies may have produced the intermediate websteritic inclusion compositions, and can explain diamonds of mixed parageneses, and the overlap in C-isotope values between parageneses. Strong deformation and extremely high nitrogen aggregation states in some diamonds may indicate high mantle storage temperatures and strain in the diamond growth environment. A second diamond group, with Type IaA–IaB nitrogen aggregation and peridotitic inclusions, crystallised at the base of the cratonic lithosphere. All diamonds were subsequently sampled by kimberlites and transported to the Earth's surface.     

Mineral inclusions and geochemical characteristics of microdiamonds from the DO27, A154, A21, A418, DO18, DD17 and Ranch Lake kimberlites at Lac de Gras, Slave Craton, Canada

A mineral inclusion, carbon isotope, nitrogen content, nitrogen aggregation state and morphological study of 576 microdiamonds from the DO27, A154, A21, A418, DO18, DD17 and Ranch Lake kimberlites at Lac de Gras, Slave Craton, was conducted. Mineral inclusion data show the diamonds are largely eclogitic (64%), followed by peridotitic (25%) and ultradeep (11%). The paragenetic abundances are similar to macrodiamonds from the DO27 kimberlite (Davies, R.M., Griffin, W.L., O'Reilly, S.Y., 1999. Diamonds from the deep: pipe DO27, Slave craton, Canada. In: Gurney, J.J., Gurney, J.L., Pascoe, M.D., Richardson, S.H. (Eds.), The J. B. Dawson Vol., Proc. 7th Internat. Kimberlite Conf., Red Roof Designs, Cape Town, pp. 148–155) but differ to diamonds from nearby kimberlites at Ekati (e.g., Lithos (2004); Tappert, R., Stachel, T., Harris, J.W., Brey, G.P., 2004. Mineral Inclusions in Diamonds from the Panda Kimberlite, S. P., Canada. 8th International Kimberlite Conference, extended abstracts) and Snap Lake to the south (Dokl. Earth Sci. 380 (7) (2001) 806), that are dominated by peridotitic stones.

Eclogitic diamonds with variable inclusion compositions and temperatures of formation (1040–1300 °C) crystallised at variable lithospheric depths sometimes in changing chemical environments. A large range to very ¹³C-depleted C-isotope compositions (δ¹³C=−35.8‰ to −2.2‰) and an NMORB bulk composition, calculated from trace elements in garnet and clinopyroxene inclusions, are consistent with an origin from subducted oceanic crust and sediments. Carbon isotopes in the peridotitic diamonds have mantle compositions (δ¹³C mode −4.0‰). Mineral inclusion compositions are largely harzburgitic. Variable temperatures of formation (garnet T_Ni=800–1300 °C) suggest the peridotitic diamonds originate from the shallow ultra-depleted and deeper less depleted layers of the central Slave lithosphere. Carbon isotopes (δ¹³C av.=−5.1‰) and mineral inclusions in the ultradeep diamonds suggest they formed in peridotitic mantle (670 km). The diamonds may have been entrained in a plume and subcreted to the base of the central Slave lithosphere.

Poorly aggregated nitrogen (IaA without platelets) in a large number of eclogitic (67%) and peridotitic (32%) diamonds, with similar nitrogen contents, indicates the diamonds were stored in the mantle at low temperatures (1060–<1100 °C) following crystallisation in the Archean. Type IaA diamonds have largely cubo-octahedral growth forms, and Type II and Type IaAB diamonds, with higher nitrogen aggregation states, mostly have octahedral morphologies. However, no correlation between these groups and their mineral inclusion compositions, C-isotopes, and N-contents rules out the possibility of unique source origins and suggests eclogitic and peridotitic diamonds experienced variable mantle thermal states. Variation in mineral inclusion chemistries in single diamonds, possible overgrowths of ¹³C-depleted eclogitic diamond on diamonds with peridotitic and ultradeep inclusions, and Type I ultradeep diamond with low N-aggregation is consistent with diamond growth over time in changing chemical environments.     

The arrow of time

Why does time apparently fly one way, when the laws of physics are actually time-symmetrical? Paul Davies proposes a quantum solution, in the Whitrow Lecture 2004, given on 8 October 2004.     

Traces of volcanic ash from the Mediterranean,Iceland and North America in a Holocene record from south Wales,UK

A tephra record is presented for a sediment core from Llyn Llech Owain, south Wales, spanning the early- to mid-Holocene. Seven cryptotephra deposits are discovered with three thought to correlate with known eruptions and the remaining four considered to represent previously undocumented events. One deposit is suggested to correlate with the ~6.9 cal ka bp Lairg A tephra from Iceland, whereas more distant sources are proposed as the origin for two of the tephra deposits. A peak of colourless shards in early-Holocene sediments is thought to tentatively correlate with the ~9.6 cal ka bp Fondi di Baia tephra (Campi Flegrei) and a second cryptotephra is tentatively correlated with the ~3.6 cal ka bp Aniakchak (CFE) II tephra (Alaska). The Fondi di Baia tephra has never been recorded beyond proximal sites and its discovery in south Wales significantly extends the geographical distribution of ash from this eruption. The remaining four cryptotephra deposits are yet to be correlated with known eruptions, demonstrating that our current understanding of widespread tephra deposits is incomplete. This new tephra record highlights the potential for sites at more southerly and westerly locations in northwest Europe to act as repositories for ash from several volcanic regions.     

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.     

Late Quaternary chironomid community structure shaped by rate and magnitude of climate change

Much is known about how climate change impacts ecosystem richness and turnover, but we have less understanding of its influence on ecosystem structures. Here, we use ecological metrics (beta diversity, compositional disorder and network skewness) to quantify the community structural responses of temperature-sensitive chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 cal a bp ) and Holocene (11 700 cal a bp to present). Analyses demonstrate high turnover (beta diversity) of chironomid composition across both epochs; however, structural metrics stayed relatively intact. Compositional disorder and skewness show greatest structural change in the Younger Dryas, following the rapid, high-magnitude climate change at the Bølling–Allerød to Younger Dryas transition. There were fewer climate-related structural changes across the early to mid–late Holocene, where climate change was more gradual and lower in magnitude. The reduced impact on structural metrics could be due to greater functional resilience provided by the wider chironomid community, or to the replacement of same functional-type taxa in the network structure. These results provide insight into how future rapid climate change may alter chironomid communities and could suggest that while turnover may remain high under a rapidly warming climate, community structural dynamics retain some resilience.     

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.