Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.     

Turbulence in the Stable Boundary Layer at Higher Richardson Numbers

We present some algebraic and numerical simulations of the stable boundary layer. We also discuss the problem of the existence of a critical Richardson number (Ri), beyond which the turbulence is suppressed. We compare the results of a second-order algebraic model with those of a third-order numerical model and, to this purpose, numerical simulations of a wind-tunnel flow, which is characterized by various Richardson numbers, were performed. As far as the second-order model is concerned, solutions, for the Richardson number greater than any critical value, can be obtained by modifying the time scales of the second-order equation pressure correlation terms in order to account for a buoyancy damping factor. We show that using a third-order model allows the same results (no critical Richardson number) to be obtained without modifications to the time scales. It is suggested that the non-locality, accounted for by the third-order moments, could allow the turbulence to persist also for Ri > 1.     

Eo-Alpine HP metamorphism in the Permian intrusives from the steep belt of the central Alps (Languard-Campo nappe and Tonale Series)

Abstract

Diorites and granitoids that intruded the Upper Austroalpine units of the central Alps during the Permian display map-pable tectonic imprints and metamorphic transformations that were acquired during the Alpine tectonometamorphic cycle. Superposed heterogeneous deformations interacted with metamorphic re-equilibration stages and created a range of textural types that reflect local deformation gradients: coronitic transformations textures, normally foliated S-tectonites and mylonitic foliations. The three textural types are distinguished on maps recording foliation trajectories of successive deformation phases, which are correlated to the evolution of metamorphic assemblages. Tectonic deformation of Alpine age is represented by three generations of ductile syn-metamorphic structures. The mineral assemblages stable during the first Alpine deformation phase (D1) are Amp_II + P1_II + white mica, + Zo/Czo + Grt + Qtz ± Mg-Ch1 ± Ilm in metadiorites and P1_II + white mica_I + Zo/Czo + Grt + Amp_II + Qtz ± Ilm/Ttn in metagranitoids; the successive foliations D2a and D2b are defined by greenschist facies minerals. Thermobarometric estimates allow T = 500–600 °C and P = 1.1 ± 0.2 GPa conditions to be determined during D1 and T ≤ 350 °C and P ≤ 0.5 GPa during D2. Relict igneous minerals in metadiorites allow to determine intrusive conditions of T = 879 ± 110 °C and P = 0.4–0.7 GPa. Radiometric ages and P/T ratio of Alpine P_maxT_Pmax suggest that the inferred P-T-d-t path may represent the thermal state of the initial Alpine subduction stages. © 2000 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS     

An original method for characterizing internal waves

This study consisted in the characterization of internal waves in the south of the Strait of Messina (Italy). The observational data consisted in thermistor string profiles from the Coastal Ocean Acoustic Changes at High frequencies (COACH06) sea trial.An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the data. The first two spatial empirical modes represent over 99% of the variability, and their corresponding time-dependent expansion coefficients take higher absolute values during internal wave events. In order to check how the expansion coefficients vary during an internal wave event, their time derivative, called here changing rates, are computed. It shows that each wave of an internal wave train is characterized by a double oscillation of the changing rates. At the front of the wave, both changing rates increase in absolute value with opposite sign, and then decrease to become null at the maximum amplitude of the wave. At the rear of the wave, the changing rates describe another period, again with opposite sign. This double oscillation can be used as a detector of internal waves, but it can also give information on the width of the wave, by measuring the length of the oscillation, as this information may sometimes be hard to read straight out of the data. When plotting the changing rates one versus another, the resulting scatter diagram puts on a butterfly shape that illustrates well this behaviour.     

Efficiency of a wide-area survey in achieving short- and long-term warning for small impactors

We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160 m down to 10 m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10 yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts.     

Recharge estimation from discrete water-table datasets in a coastal shallow aquifer in a humid subtropical climate

A time-series approach to the estimation of recharge rate in unconfined aquifers of highly variable water level is proposed. The approach, which is based on the water-table fluctuation method (WTF), utilizes discrete water-level measurements. Other similar techniques require continuous measurements, which makes them impossible to apply in cases where no data from automatic loggers are available. The procedure is deployed at the Ressacada Farm site, southern Brazil, on a coastal shallow aquifer located in a humid subtropical climate where diurnal water-level variations of up to 1 m can follow a precipitation event. The effect of tidal fluctuations on the groundwater levels is analyzed using a harmonic component builder, while a time-variable drainage term is evaluated through an independent analysis and included in the assessment. The estimated recharge values are compared with those obtained from the continuous measurements showing a good agreement with the approaches for discrete dataset intervals of up to 15 days. Subsequently, the estimated recharge rates are incorporated into a transient groundwater-flow model and the water levels are compared showing a good match. Henceforth, the approach extends the applicability of WTF to noncontinuous water-level datasets in groundwater recharge studies.     

Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation

We investigate European summer (July–August) precipitation variability and its global teleconnections using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1950–2010) and a historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulation (1901–2005) carried out using the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model. A wavelike pattern is found in the upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa) similar to the summer circumglobal wave train (CGT) extending from the North Pacific to the Eurasian region. The positive phase of the CGT is associated with upper level anomalous low (high) pressure over western (eastern) Europe. It is further associated with a dipole-like precipitation pattern over Europe entailing significantly enhanced (reduced) precipitation over the western (eastern) region. The anomalous circulation features and associated summer precipitation pattern over Europe inverts for the negative CGT phase. Accordingly, the global teleconnection pattern of a precipitation index summarizing summer precipitation over Western Europe entails an upper level signature which consists of a CGT-like wave pattern extending from the North Pacific to Eurasia. The imprint of the CGT on European summer precipitation is distinct from that of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, despite the two modes of variability bear strong similarities in their upper level atmospheric pattern over Western Europe. The analysis of simulated CGT features and of its climatic implications for the European region substantiates the existence of the CGT-European summer precipitation connection. The summer CGT in the mid-latitude therefore adds to the list of the modes of large-scale atmospheric variability significantly influencing European summer precipitation variability.     

Vertebrates from the Late Triassic Thecodontosaurus-bearing rocks of Durdham Down,Clifton (Bristol,UK)

Since the discovery of the basal sauropodomorph dinosaur Thecodontosaurus in the 1830s, the associated fauna from the Triassic fissures at Durdham Down (Bristol, UK) has not been investigated, largely because the quarries are built over. Other fissure sites around the Bristol Channel show that dinosaurs represented a minor part of the fauna of the Late Triassic archipelago. Here we present data on microvertebrates from the original Durdham Down fissure rocks, which considerably expand the taxonomic diversity of the island fauna, revealing that it was dominated by the sphenodontian Diphydontosaurus, and that archosauromorphs, including sphenosuchian crocodylomorphs, coelophysoid theropods, and the basal sauropodomorph Thecodontosaurus, were diverse. Importantly, a few fish teeth provide new information about the debated age of the fissure deposit, which is identified as lower Rhaetian. Thecodontosaurus had been assigned an age range over 20–25 Myr of the Late Triassic, so this narrower age determination (209.5–204 Myr) is important for studies of early dinosaurian evolution.     

Effect of two different habitats on spine and gonad colour in the purple sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus

This study investigates the effect of different Mediterranean habitats on spine and gonad colouring and gonadal index in the purple sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Echinodermata: Echinoidea). Specimens were collected in winter 2012 in Posidonia oceanica meadows and rocky bottom areas at two sites in Southern Sardinia (Italy, Tyrrhenian Sea). Colorimetric analyses of spines and gonads were conducted with a digital colorimeter using CIELAB colour spaces, which defines the colour in terms of three coordinate values: lightness (L*), redness (a*) and yellowness (b*). Lightness and redness of the spines differed significantly between habitats, whereas colour spaces of the gonads did not. A careful analysis of the gonad index showed it to be significantly affected by habitat, registering higher values in rocky bottom locations. In conclusion, it seems that habitat does affect spine colour but not gonad colour. Spine colour seems to be site‐dependent, whereas the gonad index depends solely on the habitat.     

Morphology and origin of an evaporitic dome in the eastern Tithonium Chasma, Mars

A 3.4 km-high, dome-shaped upland in eastern Tithonium Chasma (TC) coincides with areas containing abundant surface signatures of the sulphate mineral kiersite, as identified by the OMEGA image spectrometer. The dome has surface features on its summit, flanks, and at its base that were apparently formed by liquid water released from melting ice. These features include a variety of karst landforms as well as erosive and depositional landforms. The surface of the dome has few impact craters, which suggests a relatively young age for the dome. Rock layers in the dome are laterally continuous but are visibly deformed in some places. The mineralogical and structural characteristics of the dome suggest that it was emplaced as a diapir, similar to many salt diapirs on Earth.