Seismic attenuation,normal moveout stretch,and low‐frequency shadows underlying bottom simulating reflector events

In many cases, the seismic response of bottom‐simulating reflectors is characterised by low frequencies called “low‐frequency shadow”. Generally, this phenomenon is interpreted as attenuation due to partial saturation with free gas. Actually, this frequency loss may have multiple causes, with a normal moveout stretch as a possible candidate. To analyse this phenomenon, we compute synthetic seismograms by assuming a lossy bottom‐simulating layer, with varying quality factor and thickness, bounded by the upper hydrate‐brine/gas‐brine and lower gas‐brine/brine interfaces. First, we estimate the shift of the centroid frequency of the power spectrum as a function of the travelled distance of the seismic pulse. Then, we perform one‐dimensional numerical experiments to quantify the loss of frequency of the seismic event below the bottom‐simulating reflector as a function of the quality factor of the bottom‐simulating layer and its thickness (due to wave interference). Then, we compute shot gathers to obtain the stacked section, with and without the normal moveout stretch correction and with and without the presence of wave attenuation in the bottom‐simulating layer. The results indicate that the low‐frequency shadow due to the normal moveout stretch is stronger than that due to attenuation and may constitute a false indicator of the presence of gas. In fact, often, the low‐frequency shadow overlies events with higher frequencies, in contradiction with the physics of wave propagation. This is particularly evident when the low‐frequency shadow is so extensive that the presence of high frequencies below cannot be justified by the acquisition geometry.     

Imposex levels and concentrations of organotin compounds (TBT and its metabolites) in Nassarius nitidus from the Lagoon of Venice

Specimens of Nassarius nitidus were collected in seven stations of the Venice Lagoon to assess the levels of tributyltin (TBT) and its metabolites monobutyltin and dibutyltin in the tissues and monitor their effect on organisms, in particular the phenomenon of imposex (superimposition of male sexual characteristics on females). The following values of population indices were found: vas deferens sequence: 1.2 ± 0.7–4.0 ± 0.5; relative penis length: 6–47%. The least impacted station was situated in the northern part of the Lagoon, where females without imposex were found and Butyltin (BuTs) concentrations in the organisms (average sum of BuTs = 43 ± 14 ng Sn g⁻¹ w.) were significantly lower than in the other stations (range of average sum of BuTs: 101 ± 22–217 ± 27 ng Sn g⁻¹ d.w.). Population indices were found to be related to the TBT content in the tissues. In particular VDSI had a significant logarithmic correlation: r = 0.95, n = 8, p < 0.05.     

Imposex levels and concentrations of organotin compounds (TBT and its metabolites) in Nassarius nitidus from the Lagoon of Venice

Specimens of Nassarius nitidus were collected in seven stations of the Venice Lagoon to assess the levels of tributyltin (TBT) and its metabolites monobutyltin and dibutyltin in the tissues and monitor their effect on organisms, in particular the phenomenon of imposex (superimposition of male sexual characteristics on females). The following values of population indices were found: vas deferens sequence: 1.2+/-0.7-4.0+/-0.5; relative penis length: 6-47%. The least impacted station was situated in the northern part of the Lagoon, where females without imposex were found and Butyltin (BuTs) concentrations in the organisms (average sum of BuTs=43+/-14 ngSng(-1)w.) were significantly lower than in the other stations (range of average sum of BuTs: 101+/-22-217+/-27 ngSng(-1)d.w.). Population indices were found to be related to the TBT content in the tissues. In particular VDSI had a significant logarithmic correlation: r=0.95, n=8, p<0.05.     

Attenuation tomography: An application to gas-hydrate and free-gas detection

We estimate the quality factor (Q) from seismic reflections by using a tomographic inversion algorithm based on the frequency‐shift method. The algorithm is verified with a synthetic case and is applied to offshore data, acquired at western Svalbard, to detect the presence of bottom‐simulating reflectors (BSR) and gas hydrates. An array of 20 ocean‐bottom seismographs has been used. The combined use of traveltime and attenuation tomography provides a 3D velocity–Q cube, which can be used to map the spatial distribution of the gas‐hydrate concentration and free‐gas saturation. In general, high P‐wave velocity and quality factor indicate the presence of solid hydrates and low P‐wave velocity and quality factor correspond to free‐gas bearing sediments. The Q‐values vary between 200 and 25, with higher values (150–200) above the BSR and lower values below the BSR (25–40). These results seem to confirm that hydrates cement the grains, and attenuation decreases with increasing hydrate concentration.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for spatial analysis of climate model bias in multi-model ensembles

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.     

Turbulence in the Stable Boundary Layer at Higher Richardson Numbers

We present some algebraic and numerical simulations of the stable boundary layer. We also discuss the problem of the existence of a critical Richardson number (Ri), beyond which the turbulence is suppressed. We compare the results of a second-order algebraic model with those of a third-order numerical model and, to this purpose, numerical simulations of a wind-tunnel flow, which is characterized by various Richardson numbers, were performed. As far as the second-order model is concerned, solutions, for the Richardson number greater than any critical value, can be obtained by modifying the time scales of the second-order equation pressure correlation terms in order to account for a buoyancy damping factor. We show that using a third-order model allows the same results (no critical Richardson number) to be obtained without modifications to the time scales. It is suggested that the non-locality, accounted for by the third-order moments, could allow the turbulence to persist also for Ri > 1.     

Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) were key to reaching the Paris Agreement and will be instrumental in implementing it. Research was quick to identify the ‘headline numbers’ of NDCs: if these climate action plans were fully implemented, global mean warming by 2100 would be reduced from approximately 3.6 to 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels (Höhne et al. Climate Pol 17:1–17, 2016; Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, beyond these headline mitigation numbers, NDCs are more difficult to analyse and compare. UN climate negotiations have so far provided limited guidance on NDC formulation, which has resulted in varying scopes and contents of NDCs, often lacking details concerning ambitions. If NDCs are to become the long-term instrument for international cooperation, negotiation, and ratcheting up of ambitions to address climate change, then they need to become more transparent and comparable, both with respect to mitigation goals, and to issues such as adaptation, finance, and the way in which NDCs are aligned with national policies. Our analysis of INDCs and NDCs (Once a party ratifies the Paris Agreement, it is invited to turn its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) into an NDC. We refer to results from our INDC analysis rather than our NDC analysis in this commentary unless otherwise stated.) shows that they omit important mitigation sectors, do not adequately provide details on costs and financing of implementation, and are poorly designed to meet assessment and review needs.