Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

A Holocene record of climate change,fire ecology and human activity from montane Flat Top Bog,Maui

A sediment core from a high-elevation bog on Maui in the Hawaiian Islands contains evidence for drier conditions between 9.4–5.8 kyr BP, followed by a wetter interval between 5.8–2.2 kyr BP, and a variable late Holocene. These precipitation changes may be a reflection of vertical displacements of the upper boundary of the mid-Pacific Trade Wind Inversion (TWI) cloud layer. Fires, probably volcanically ignited, occurred in the forests prior to human arrival. Polynesian activity in this high-elevation, remote site was apparently limited, with no pollen, charcoal, or sedimentological evidence for local anthropogenic disturbance. After European contact, grass fires increased and introduced plant species invaded the site. Values for Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in sediments throughout the Holocene indicate low trace-metal deposition from atmospheric particulates at the site, even in the twentieth century.This paper is one of a series of papers guest edited by Dr. Mark Brenner on tropical paleolimnology     

Coma expansion and photometry of comet Bowell (1980b)

Optical and infrared observations of comet Bowell are presented. The optical observations indicate that the solid grain coma is expanding at only 0.9 ± 0.2 m sec^?1. This is two orders of magnitude slower than the local gas sound speed and may suggest that gas drag is not responsible for stripping the grains from the nucleus. The hypothesis of “electrostatic snap-off” is tentatively advanced to account for the ejection of the grains. Alternatively, the grains may have an unusual size distribution. The extrapolated motion of the grains suggests that the bulk of the coma was formed when the comet was at a heliocentric distance $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$. Any water ice in the nucleus would be too cold to give rise to the observed grain coma by equilibrium sublimation at this R. Further evidence against the production of the grain coma by equilibrium sublimation of the nucleus is provided by broadband (J) photometric observations. Almost all of the observed photometric variations of comet Bowell can be ascribed to geometric effects. Simple models indicate that the total grain cross section has been nearly constant since the time of the earliest observations. The present observations, which suggest that water ice sublimation does not control either the optical morphology or the near infrared photometric behavior of comet Bowell, are contrasted with reported high OH production rates. It is concluded that the grain coma may be largely a relic of activity occurring on the nucleus at $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$ while the OH may indicate sublimation from the nucleus near perihelion and from coma grains near $\text{R ? 4.6}\text{AU}$.     

Aviation-Contrail Impacts on Climate and Climate Change: A Ready-to-Wear Research Mantle for Geographers

Although geographers are highly visible in research into contemporary climate changes accompanying greenhouse gas increases (“global warming”), a relatively little explored component by them is the impact of aviation. This contrasts with the atmospheric science community of cloud physicists, chemists, and numerical modelers, who use geographic tools of trade. Geographers are well positioned to investigate aviation-climate impacts, especially related to contrail clouds, given geographic traditions of environment, spatial variation, regionalization, generalization, and the integrative approach to studying physical and human systems (here, climate, transportation, and energy). We highlight the role played by geographers in contrail-climate studies and advocate for a broader involvement in aviation policy formulation.     

Faunas from the upper silurian (upper ludlovian) in the ludlow-much wenlock district,England

Faunal lists for 17 sections in the Overton Formation are presented. Faunal diversity appears to increase towards the formations base while faunal dominance appears to increase towards its top.     

Deposition of trace substances via cloud interception on a coniferous forest at Kleiner Feldberg

A resistance model to calculate the deposition of cloud droplets on a coniferous forest and some improved parameterizations of the indispensable input parameters are described. The deposition model is adapted to the coniferous forest at the Kleiner Feldberg site and verified by the data of a drip water monitoring station below the forest canopy. The measurements of liqud water content, wind speed and trace substance compounds in cloud water of the Ground-based Cloud Experiment (GCE) at Kleiner Feldberg in 1990 are used to calculate the cloud water deposition fluxes and the deposition of trace substances via cloud water interception. The calculated deposition of trace substances via cloud water interceptions is three to six times higher than via rain during the experiment. On a long term data basis the yearly amount of cloud water deposition is 180 mm year^–1 at Kleiner Feldberg site (840 m a.s.l.) while the precipitation amount is 1030 mm year^–1. Due to higher trace substance concentrations in cloud water compared to rain the ionic deposition via cloud water interception and via precipitation were assessed to be of comparable magnitude.