Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

Flow and form in rehabilitation of large-river ecosystems: An example from the Lower Missouri River

On large, intensively engineered rivers like the Lower Missouri, the template of the physical habitat is determined by the nearly independent interaction of channel form and flow regime. We evaluated the interaction between flow and form by modeling four combinations of modern and historical channel form and modern and historical flow regimes. The analysis used shallow, slow water (shallow-water habitat, SWH, defined as depths between 0 and 1.5 m, and current velocities between 0 and 0.75 m/s) as an indicator of habitat that has been lost on many intensively engineered rivers and one that is thought to be especially important in rearing of young fishes. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for modern and historical channels of the Lower Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri, indicate substantial differences between the two channels in total availability and spatial characteristics of SWH. In the modern channel, SWH is maximized at extremely low flows and in overbank flows, whereas the historical channel had substantially more SWH at all discharges and SWH increased with increasing discharge. The historical channel form produced 3–7 times the SWH area of the modern channel regardless of flow regime. The effect of flow regime is evident in increased within-year SWH variability with the natural flow regime, including significant seasonal peaks of SWH associated with spring flooding. Comparison with other reaches along the Lower Missouri River indicates that a) channel form is the dominant control of the availability of habitat even in reaches where the hydrograph is more intensively altered, and b) rehabilitation projects that move toward the historical condition can be successful in increasing topographic diversity and thereby decreasing sensitivity of the availability of habitat to flow regime. The relative efficacy of managing flow and form in creating SWH is useful information toward achieving socially acceptable rehabilitation of the ecosystem in large river systems.     

New typologies for estuarine morphology

New theories to explain how tides and river flow determine estuarine bathymetries have been developed. The range of validity of these theories has been subsequently assessed against a recently available observational data set.Success in reproducing the evolution of estuarine bathymetries that has occurred over the last 10 000 years provides the basis for the translation, here, of these theories into new typologies. These then provide reference frameworks to enhance our perspective on existing morphologies and identify ‘anomalous’ estuaries. Further refinement of these new theories requires analyses of causal factors responsible for such anomalies drawing on classical morphological experience. These frameworks can also be used for calculating likely future bathymetric adjustments for prescribed changes in mean sea level, tidal amplitudes, river flow and sediment supply.     

Sources of Sediment in Lake Pepin on the Upper Mississippi River in Response to Holocene Climatic Changes

Sediments from Lake Pepin on the Mississippi River, southeastern Minnesota, are used as provenance tracers to assess variations in hydrology and sediment-transport during the middle Holocene. Three rivers contribute sediment to Lake Pepin, and each catchment is characterized by a distinctly different geologic terrain. The geochemical fingerprint for each drainage basin was determined from the elemental composition of heavy minerals in the silt-sized fraction of modern sediment samples. Down-core elemental abundances were compared with these fingerprints by use of a chemical-mass-balance model that apportions sediment to the source areas. We observed a decreased contribution from the Minnesota River during the interval ~6700–5500 ¹⁴C yr BP, which we attribute to decreased discharge of the Minnesota River, likely controlled by a combination of precipitation, snow melt, and groundwater input to the river. This hydrologic condition coincides with the mid-Holocene prairie period recorded by fossil pollen data. The occurrence of this feature in a proxy record for hydrologic variations supports the hypothesis that the mid-Holocene prairie period reflects drier conditions than before or after in midwestern North America.     

Late Holocene linkages between decade–century scale climate variability and productivity at Lake Tanganyika, Africa

Microlaminated sediment cores from the Kalya slope region of Lake Tanganyika provide a near-annually resolved paleoclimate record between ∼∼2,840 and 1,420 cal. yr B.P. demonstrating strong linkages between climate variability and lacustrine productivity. Laminae couplets comprise dark, terrigenous-dominated half couplets, interpreted as low density underflows deposited from riverine sources during the rainy season, alternating with light, planktonic diatomaceous ooze, with little terrigenous component, interpreted as windy/dry season deposits. Laminated portions of the studied cores consist of conspicuous dark and light colored bundles of laminae couplets. Light and dark bundles alternate at decadal time scales. Within dark bundles, both light and dark half couplets are significantly thinner than within light bundles, implying slower sediment accumulation rates during both seasons over those intervals.Time series analyses of laminae thickness patterns demonstrate significant periodicities at interannual–centennial time scales. Longer time scale periodicities (multidecadal to centennial scale) of light and dark half couplet thicknesses are coherent and in some cases are similar to solar cycle periods on these time scales. Although laminae thickness cycles do not strongly covary with the actual Δ¹⁴C record for this same time period, two large Δ¹⁴C anomalies are associated with substantial decreases in both light and dark laminae thickness. In contrast to the multidecadal– centennial time scale, significant annual to decadal periodicities, which are broadly consistent with ENSO/PDO forcing and their impact on East African climate, are not coherent between light and dark half couplets. The coherency of light–dark couplets at decadal–centennial time scales, but not at shorter time scales, is consistent with a model of a long-term relationship between precipitation (recorded in wet season dark laminae thickness) and productivity (light laminae thickness), which is not manifest at shorter time scales. We hypothesize that this coupling results from long-term recharging of internal nutrient loading during wet periods (higher erosion of soil P) and reduced loading during drought intervals. The relationship is not expressed on short time scales during which the dominant control on productivity is wind-driven, dry season upwelling, which is uncorrelated with wet-season precipitation. Our record greatly extends the temporal record of this quasi-periodic behavior throughout the late Holocene and provides the first evidence linking decade- to century-scale episodes of enhanced productivity to enhanced precipitation levels and nutrient recharge in a productive tropical lake.     

Petrology, geochemistry and the mechanisms determining the distribution of platinum-group element and base metal sulphide mineralisation in the Platreef at Overysel, northern Bushveld Complex, South Africa

Platinum-group element (PGE) mineralisation within the Platreef at Overysel is controlled by the presence of base metal sulphides (BMS). The floor rocks at Overysel are Archean basement gneisses, and unlike other localities along the strike of the Platreef where the floor is comprised of Transvaal Supergroup sediments, the intimate PGE–BMS relationship holds strong into the footwall rocks. Decoupling of PGE from BMS is rare and the BMS and platinum-group mineral assemblages in the Platreef and the footwall are almost identical. There is minimal overprinting by hydrothermal fluids; therefore, the mineralisation style present at Overysel may represent the most ‘primary’ style of Platreef mineralisation preserved anywhere along the strike. Chondrite-normalised PGE profiles reveal a progressive fractionation of the PGE with depth into the footwall, with Ir, Ru and Rh dramatically depleted with depth compared to Pt, Pd and Au. This feature is not observed at Sandsloot and Zwartfontein, to the south of Overysel, where the footwall rocks are carbonates. There is evidence from rare earth element abundances and the amount of interstitial quartz towards the base of the Platreef pyroxenites that contamination by a felsic melt derived from partial melting of the gneissic footwall has taken place. Textural evidence in the gneisses suggests that a sulphide liquid percolated down into the footwall through a permeable, inter-granular network that was produced by partial melting around grain boundaries in the gneisses that was induced by the intrusion of the Platreef magma. PGE were originally concentrated within a sulphide liquid in the Platreef magma, and the crystallisation of monosulphide solid solution from the sulphide liquid removed the majority of the IPGE and Rh from it whilst still within the mafic Platreef. Transport of PGE into the gneisses, via downward migration of the residual sulphide liquid, fractionated out the remaining IPGE and Rh in the upper parts of the gneisses leaving a ‘slick’ of disseminated sulphides in the gneiss, with the residual liquid becoming progressively more depleted in these elements relative to Pt, Pd and Au. Highly sulphide-rich zones with massive sulphides formed where ponding of the sulphide liquid occurred due to permeability contrasts in the footwall. This study highlights the fact that there is a fundamental floor rock control on the mechanism of distribution of PGE from the Platreef into the footwall rocks. Where the floor rocks are sediments, fluid activity related to metamorphism, assimilation and later serpentinisation has decoupled PGE from BMS in places, and transport of PGE into the footwall is via hydrothermal fluids. In contrast, where the floor is comprised of anhydrous gneiss, such as at Overysel, there is limited fluid activity and PGE behaviour is controlled by the behaviour of sulphide liquids, producing an intimate PGE–BMS association. Xenoliths and irregular bands of chromitite within the Platreef are described in detail for the first time. These are rich in the IPGE and Rh, and evidence from laurite inclusions indicates they must have crystallised from a PGE-saturated magma. The disturbed and xenolithic nature of the chromitites would suggest they are rip-up clasts, either disturbed by later pulses of Platreef magma in a multi-phase emplacement or transported into the Platreef from a pre-existing source in a deeper staging chamber or conduit.     

Zr-in-rutile thermometry in blueschists from Sifnos, Greece

Zr-in-rutile thermometry on samples of blueschist from Sifnos, Greece, yields temperatures that reflect progressive crystallization of rutile from ca. 445 to 505°C with an analytical precision of + 18/−27 and ± 10°C using the electron microprobe and ± 1.5–3.5°C using the ion microprobe. Individual grains are generally homogeneous within analytical uncertainty. Different grains within a single sample record temperature differences as large 55°, although in most samples the range of temperatures is on the order of 25°. In several samples, Zr-in-rutile temperatures from grains within garnet are lower than temperatures from matrix grains, reflecting growth of rutile with increasing temperature of metamorphism. Although the specific rutile-producing reactions have not been identified, it is inferred that rutile grows from either continuous reaction involving the breakdown of lower grade phases (possibly ilmenite), or from pseudomorph reactions involving the breakdown of relic igneous precursors at blueschist-facies conditions. No systematic variation in rutile temperatures was observed across the blueschist belt of northern Sifnos, consistent with the belt having behaved as a coherent block during subduction.     

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.