Comparing the Correlative Holdridge Model to Mechanistic Biogeographical Models for Assessing Vegetation Distribution Response to Climatic Change

A well-established and widely used correlative climate-vegetation model (Holdridge Life Zone model) was compared to three mechanistic simulation models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary climate and a set of future climates prescribed by three Global Circulation Model experiments. Output from the mechanistic models were from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) intercomparison. Holdridge modeling approaches, using a Simple implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature and precipitation alone) or a Full implementation (vegetation distribution based on biotemperature, precipitation, altitudinal region, latitudinal belt, and transitional vegetation zones), represented current potential natural U.S. vegetation poor to fair, respectively. The more sophisticated mechanistic models were superior at reproducing potential vegetation under current climate compared to Holdridge, although there was significant variability among these models. The Holdridge implementations generally showed similar or greater climate sensitivity with respect to spatial redistribution of vegetation compared to the mechanistic models run both with and without doubled CO₂ levels; however, the sensitivity of the Holdridge model depended on the implementation. Reduced sensitivity of the mechanistic models arises from direct (physiological) CO₂ effects and other compensating feedbacks not captured by the Holdridge model. The greater degree of physical realism in the mechanistic models makes them the model class of choice for climate impact assessment. However, under circumstances of limited data availability, computation resources, and access to mechanistic models and model expertise, simple correlational models such as Holdridge may be the only method that can be applied. The paper makes some recommendations on the use of the Holdridge model for impact assessment if it is the only available model.     

Fish Remains from Homestead Cave and Lake Levels of the Past 13,000 Years in the Bonneville Basin

A late Quaternary ichthyofauna from Homestead Cave, Utah, provides a new source of information on lake history in the Bonneville basin. The fish, represented by 11 freshwater species, were accumulated between 11,200 and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. by scavenging owls. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of Lake Bonneville varied with its elevation; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values of fish from the lowest stratum of the cave suggest they grew in a lake near the terminal Pleistocene Gilbert shoreline. In the lowest deposits, a decrease in fish size and an increase in species tolerant of higher salinities or temperatures suggest multiple die-offs associated with declining lake levels. An initial, catastrophic, post-Provo die-off occurred at 11,300–11,200 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and was followed by at least one rebound or recolonization of fish populations, but fish were gone from Lake Bonneville sometime before 10,400 ¹⁴C yr B.P. This evidence is inconsistent with previous inferences of a near desiccation of Lake Bonneville between 13,000 and 12,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Peaks in Gila atraria frequencies in the upper strata suggest the Great Salt Lake had highstands at 3400 and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.     

Remineralization Ratios in the Subtropical North Pacific Gyre

Based on a new mixing model of two end-members, the water column remineralization ratios of P/N/C_org - O₂ = 1/13 ± 1/135 ± 18/170 ± 9 are obtained for the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) data set at station ALOHA. The traditional Redfield ratios of P/N/C_org/–O₂ = 1/16/106/138 have standard deviations of more than 50%, when they are based on the average composition of phytoplankton. Apparently, the remineralization processes in the water column have smoothed out the observed large variability of plankton compositions. A new molar formula for the remineralized plankton may be written as ₁₃₅H₂₈₀O₁₀₅N₁₃P or C₂₅(CH₂O)₁₀₁(CH₄)₉(NH₃)₁₃(H₃PO₄). Oxidation of this formula results inC₂₅(CH₂O)₁₀₁(CH₄)₉(NH₃)₁₃(H₃PO₄) + 170O₂ 135CO₂ + 132H₂O + 13NO₃ ^- + H₂PO₄ ^- + 14H⁺.For comparison, remineralization using Redfield's formula gives:(CH₂O)₁₀₆(NH₃)₁₆(H₃PO₄) + 138O₂ 106CO₂ + 122H₂O + 16NO₃ ^-+ H₂PO₄ ^- + 17H⁺     

Size Fractionation (Dissolved, Colloidal and Particulate) of Trace Metals in the Thur River, Switzerland

The distribution of some trace metals (Cu, Zn, Ni, Co,Fe, Mn) and of DOC over a particulate (> 1 m),a colloidal (size < 0.45 m and molecular weight > 10 kD) and an ultrafiltered fraction (< 10 kD)was determined at several sites on the Thur River,Switzerland, at various times of the year. Thecomplexation of Cu by strong ligands in theultrafiltrate and in the conventional filtrate (<0.45 m) was compared using a ligand-exchange/CSV method.The <0.45 m concentrations of Cu (from anaverage of 7 nM to 24 nM), Zn (<5–23 nM), Ni (5–13 nM),Co (1.5–3 nM) and Mn (7–92 nM)increased downstream. The major part of Cu, Zn, Niand Co usually occurred in the ultrafiltratefraction at all sites, whereas Fe and Mn were mostlyin the particulate fraction, under conditions of lowsuspended matter content (< 10 mg L^-1) in theriver. The percentage of metal in the colloidalfraction, with respect to the 0.45-m filtrate,decreased in the order: Cu (median 11%) > Zn Ni(median 5–6%) > Mn Co (median < 5%). DOCalso consisted mostly of molecules in the < 10 kDrange.Cu was strongly complexed by natural organic ligandsin all filtrate and ultrafiltrate samples. A largepart of the strong Cu binding ligands consisted ofcompounds in the < 10 kD range, but colloidalligands with similar properties also occurred. Cu wasdistributed among the dissolved and the colloidalligands, roughly in proportion to organic carbon.The colloidal fraction (as defined here) did notincrease in its proportional amount downstream and wasonly of limited significance in transporting traceelements in the Thur River under low discharge conditions.     

Modelling phosphorus transport in a surface irrigation drain

Understanding phosphorus (P) transport from agricultural land is essential to the development of effective management strategies that reduce the impact of agriculture on inland water quality. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model describing P transfer down a farm scale irrigation drain.     

Fracture in Westerly Granite under AE Feedback and Constant Strain Rate Loading: Nucleation, Quasi-static Propagation, and the Transition to Unstable Fracture Propagation

New observations of fracture nucleation are presented from three triaxial compression experiments on intact samples of Westerly granite, using Acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring. By conducting the tests under different loading conditions, the fracture process is demonstrated for quasi-static fracture (under AE Feedback load), a slowly developing unstable fracture (loaded at a `slow' constant strain rate of 2.5 × 10<sup>−6</sup> /s) and an unstable fracture that develops near instantaneously (loaded at a `fast' constant strain rate of 5 × 10⁻⁵ /s). By recording a continuous ultrasonic waveform during the critical period of fracture, the entire AE catalogue can be captured and the exact time of fracture defined. Under constant strain loading, three stages are observed: (1) An initial nucleation or stable growth phase at a rate of ~ 1.3 mm/s, (2) a sudden increase to a constant or slowly accelerating propagation speed of ~ 18 mm/s, and (3) unstable, accelerating propagation. In the ~ 100 ms before rupture, the high level of AE activity (as seen on the continuous record) prevented the location of discrete AE events. A lower bound estimate of the average propagation velocity (using the time-to-rupture and the existing fracture length) suggests values of a few m/s. However from a low gain acoustic record, we infer that in the final few ms, the fracture propagation speed increased to 175 m/s. These results demonstrate similarities between fracture nucleation in intact rock and the nucleation of dynamic instabilities in stick slip experiments. It is suggested that the ability to constrain the size of an evolving fracture provides a crucial tool in further understanding the controls on fracture nucleation.     

Site Response in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada from NTS Explosions and Earthquake Data

We report site response in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) from historical recordings of Nevada Test Site (NTS) nuclear explosions and earthquake recordings from permanent and temporary seismic stations. Our data set significantly improves the spatial coverage of LVV over previous studies, especially in the northern, deeper parts of the basin. Site response at stations in LVV was measured for frequencies in the range 0.2–5.0 Hz using Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR) and Horizontal-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVR). For the SSR measurements we used a reference site (approximately NEHRP B ``rock' classification) located on Frenchman Mountain outside the basin. Site response at sedimentary sites is variable in LVV with average amplifications approaching a factor of 10 at some frequencies. We observed peaks in the site response curves at frequencies clustered near 0.6, 1.2 and 2.0 Hz, with some sites showing additional lower amplitude peaks at higher frequencies. The spatial pattern of site response is strongly correlated with the reported depth to basement for frequencies between 0.2 and 3.0 Hz, although the frequency of peak amplification does not show a similar correlation. For a few sites where we have geotechnical shear velocities, the amplification shows a correlation with the average upper 30-meter shear velocities, V₃₀. We performed two-dimensional finite difference simulations and reproduced the observed peak site amplifications at 0.6 and 1.2 Hz with a low velocity near-surface layer with shear velocities 600–750 m/s and a thickness of 100–200 m. These modeling results indicate that the amplitude and frequencies of site response peaks in LVV are strongly controlled by shallow velocity structure.