Comparing spatially varying coefficient models: a case study examining violent crime rates and their relationships to alcohol outlets and illegal drug arrests

In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian model.      

The Use of LiDAR in Digital Surface Modelling: Issues and Errors

Modelling and extracting 3D geographical data presents numerous challenges that require continual research to attempt to evolve an efficient, reliable and accurate solution. LiDAR data capture and analysis has become a preferred acquisition choice for elevation data because the resulting quality and level of detail far exceeds traditional methods for large survey areas. As with any data collection system, LiDAR is prone to errors. Analysing these errors, ascertaining causes and producing error correction strategies is vital if accurate and confident results are to be obtained. Eight years of LiDAR datasets (from 1998 to 2005) have been closely analysed for a large coastal area of South Wales. This article provides a detailed and accurate summary of the identified LiDAR data issues and subsequent errors which affect the accuracy of end products such as Digital Surface Models (DSMs).     

Late glacial fans in the eastern Skagerrak; depositional environment interpreted from swath bathymetry and seismostratigraphy

The origin of acoustically transparent fan deposits overlying glacial till and ice-proximal sediments on the southern margin of the Norwegian Channel has been studied using high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles and multibeam bathymetry. The first deposits overlying glacigenic sediments are a series of stacked, acoustically transparent submarine fans. The lack of glaciomarine sediments below and between individual fans indicates that deposition was rapid and immediately followed the break up of the Late Weichselian ice cover. The fans are overlain by stratified glaciomarine sediments and Holocene mud. Because of the uniformity of this drape, the upper surface of the fan deposits is mimicked at the present seafloor, and the bathymetric images clearly show the spatial relationship of the fans to bedrock ridges and the presence of braided channel-levee systems on the surface of the youngest fans. The acoustically transparent character of the fan deposits indicates that they comprise silt and clay, and their lobate form and lack of internal stratification indicates that they were deposited by debris flows. The channel-levee morphology indicates deposition from more watery hyperconcentrated fluid flows. The fan sediments were either derived from 1) erosion of Mid Weichselian lake deposits in southern Skagerrak or 2) from Late glacial ice-margin lake deposits, ponded against the Norwegian Channel ice stream, which collapsed catastrophically when the lateral support was removed as the ice disintegrated. Fans composed almost exclusively of fine-grained sediment need not, therefore, rule out an origin in a deglacial setting relatively close to the former margins of glaciers and ice sheets.     

High resolution micromill sampling for analysis of fish otoliths by ICP-MS: effects of sampling and specimen preparation on trace element fingerprints

Otoliths are calcified structures in the head of fish that record environmental information about fish's life history. Gathering the elemental information from the core of an otolith corresponding to the juvenile period of fish's life is critical to discriminate the adult fish to their natal habitats reliably. A high resolution micromill has been used to isolate the otolith core from a whole otolith for elemental analysis. The effects of micromilling procedures (e.g., sectioning, embedding and drilling) on contamination to otolith trace element levels were examined using paired blackfin tuna (Thunnus atlanticus) otoliths. Otoliths were decontaminated by dilute hydrogen peroxide and nitric acid throughout to remove surface contamination. A preconcentration procedure was used to determine the trace elements from the small core material by ICP-MS. It was found that micromilling procedures introduce significant contamination to otoliths, especially for Al, Cu, Pb and Zn. The sectioning procedure caused significant contamination for Co and Cu, while the embedding procedure resulted in contamination for nearly all trace elements (Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Ga, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn). The combined sectioning, embedding and drilling procedure also resulted in contamination for most trace elements. Despite the contamination across all procedural steps, the decontamination procedure effectively removed the surface contamination with the exception of Pb and Zn. Bias (e.g., residual contamination) on Pb was small in comparison to overall concentration of Pb expected to occur in fish otoliths, therefore, its effect may be minor in discriminating individuals. Bias on Zn was larger that could limit its application in discriminating individuals.     

Measuring species richness on sandy beach transects: extrapolative estimators and their implications for sampling effort

Species richness is a measure that is fundamental to many studies in ecology, and it is particularly important on sandy beaches, where it underlies patterns described by the broadly accepted swash exclusion hypothesis. However, its estimation in practice is problematic. This has led ecologists in other fields to adopt extrapolative estimators of species richness, which project the total number of species present in a habitat by adjusting upward the number of species observed by an amount related to the number of rare species encountered in the samples. In so doing, the species richness can be estimated, with confidence intervals, at any level of sampling effort. Despite the availability and advantages of these methods, beach ecologists have continued to use the observed species richness as a point estimate of biodiversity for beaches. Here, we employ a Monte Carlo resampling approach over a range of routine transect designs used to sample sandy beaches, and evaluate the performance of seven non-parametric extrapolative estimators for species richness relative to that of the more conventionally used observed species richness. We find that the first-order Jackknife estimator (Jack 1) is the least biased, most accurate and most consistent across sites. Employing this estimator would allow accurate estimation of species richness on short (tens of metres) stretches of beach without exceeding the acceptable levels of sampling effort (4–5 m²). Spreading this effort evenly over three across-shore transects, each with a minimum of 13 equally spaced levels seems appropriately efficient. Although a greater number of research studies is required to ascertain the generality of these results beyond the beaches we sampled, we tentatively recommend the application of our results in biodiversity surveys on sandy beaches.     

Site fidelity and movements of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) in a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal)

Short-time site fidelity and movements of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) in a coastal lagoon were determined using passive acoustic telemetry. Nine fish, ranging from 20.1 to 32.5 cm total length, were surgically implanted with acoustic transmitters and monitored for up to 179 days. Minimum convex polygon areas ranged from 18,698.6 m² to 352,711.9 m². Home range sizes were small, with individuals using core areas on a daily basis. However, these core areas shifted within the study site over time towards the opening to the sea. Two different diel behaviors were recorded, with some individuals more active at night and others during day time. Some individuals also demonstrated homing abilities, returning to the capture site after being released more than 4 km away.     

Modelling and mass balance assessments of nutrient retention in a seasonally-flowing estuary (Swan River Estuary,Western Australia)

An integrated mass balance and modelling approach for analysis of estuarine nutrient fluxes is demonstrated in the Swan River Estuary, a microtidal system with strong hydrological dependence on seasonal river inflows. Mass balance components included estimation of gauged and ungauged inputs to the estuary and losses to the ocean (outflow and tidal exchange). Modelling components included estimation of atmospheric (N fixation, denitrification) and sediment–water column nutrient exchanges. Gross and net denitrification derived using two independent methods were significantly correlated (r² = 0.49, p < 0.01) with net rates averaging 40% of gross. Annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from major tributaries were linearly correlated with annual freshwater discharge and were 3-fold higher in wet years than in dry years. Urban drains and groundwater contributed, on average, 26% of N inputs and 19% of P inputs, with higher relative contributions in years of low river discharge. Overall, ungauged inputs accounted for almost 35% of total nitrogen loads. For N, elevated loading in wet years was accompanied by large increases in outflow (7x) and tidal flushing (2x) losses and resulted in overall lower retention efficiency (31%) relative to dry years (70%). For P, tidal flushing losses were similar in wet and dry years, while outflow losses (4-fold higher) were comparable in magnitude to increases in loading. As a result, P retention within the estuary was not substantially affected by inter-annual variation in water and P loading (ca. 50% in all years). Sediment nutrient stores increased in most years (remineralisation efficiency ca. 50%), but sediment nutrient releases were significant and in some circumstances were a net source of nutrients to the water column.     

Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Simulation of nonlinear wave run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

This paper considers the numerical simulation of nonlinear wave run-up within a highly accurate Boussinesq-type model. Moving wet–dry boundary algorithms based on so-called extrapolating boundary techniques are utilized, and a new variant of this approach is proposed in two horizontal dimensions. As validation, computed results involving the nonlinear run-up of periodic as well as transient waves on a sloping beach are considered in a single horizontal dimension, demonstrating excellent agreement with analytical solutions for both the free surface and horizontal velocity. In two horizontal dimensions cases involving long wave resonance in a parabolic basin, solitary wave evolution in a triangular channel, and solitary wave run-up on a circular conical island are considered. In each case the computed results compare well against available analytical solutions or experimental measurements. The ability to accurately simulate a moving wet–dry boundary is of considerable practical importance within coastal engineering, and the extension described in this work significantly improves the nearshore versatility of the present high-order Boussinesq approach.