Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss

We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds.     

1957-1996台风对中国降水的影响

台风活动中国气候的重要特点之一，它能带来大量降水并造成严重的财产损失。在一些地区，台风降水甚至可以在总降水量中占很大比例。本文目的是研究那些对中国产生影响的台风并重点关注台风对中国降水的影响。文中涉及四个方面的工作。首先，研究了影响中国台风的频率，结果表明台风影响的主要季节为5－11月，尤其以7－9月频繁；在过去40年中影响台风的频率没有明显的变化趋势。第二，对台站台风降水的气候特征分析结果显示，海南和东南沿海地区受台风的影响最大，而且长江以南大部地区每年都受到台风的影响；另外，影响区域大部分地区的台风降水在过去40年中表现出下降的趋势，但是只有东北地区南部这种趋势是显著的。第三，对台风个例的分析表明，个例降水总量和影响面积之间存在着显著的线性关系。最后，对台风造成的中国范围降水总量进行了分析，初步结果显示台风降水总量在1957－1996年间显著减少。     

Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia

The Western Australian wheat-belt has experienced more rainfall decline than any other wheat-cropping region in Australia. Future climate change scenarios suggest that the Western Australian wheat-belt is likely to see greater future reductions in rainfall than other regions, together with a further increase in temperatures. While these changes appear adverse for water-limited rain-fed agriculture, a close analysis of the changes and their impacts reveals a more complex story. Twentieth century changes in rainfall, temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration have had little or no overall impact on wheat yields. Changes in agricultural technology and farming systems have had much larger impacts. Contrary to some claims, there is no scientific or economic justification for any immediate actions by farmers to adapt to long-term climate change in the Western Australian wheat-belt, beyond normal responses to short-term variations in weather. Rather than promoting current change, the most important policy response is research and development to enable farmers to facilitate future adaptation to climate change. Research priorities are proposed.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

Climate Change and Water Resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.     

Ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange: An accessible lab simulation for considering biological effects

Phytoplankton is considered a key component mediating the ocean-atmospheric exchange of carbon dioxide and oxygen. Lab simulations which model biological responses to atmospheric change are difficult to translate into natural settings owing in part to the vertical migration of phytoplankton. In the sea this vertical migration acts to regulate actual carbon dioxide consumption. To capture some critical properties of this vertical material transfer, we monitored the effects of atmospheric CO₂ on dense suspensions of bioconvecting microorganisms. Bioconvection refers to the spontaneous patterns of circulation which arise among such upwardly swimming cells as alga, protozoa, zoospore and large bacteria. Gravity, phototaxis and chemotaxis have all been implicated as affecting pattern-forming ability. The ability of a biologically active suspension to detect atmospheric changes offers a unique method to quantify organism adjustment and vertical migration. With increasing CO₂, bioconvection patterns in alga (P. parva) and protozoa (T. pyriformis) lose their robustness, and surface cell populations retreat from the highest CO₂ regions. Cell movement (both percent motile and mean velocity) generally diminishes. A general program of image analysis yields statistically significant variations in macroscopic migration patterns; both fractal dimension and various crystallographic parameters correlate strongly with carbon dioxide content.     

Fingerprinting of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in climate models to aid in the design of proxy investigations

It is desirable to design proxy investigations that target regions where properties reconstructed from calibrated parameters potentially carry high-fidelity information concerning changes in large-scale climate systems. Numerical climate models can play an important role in this task, producing simulations that can be analyzed to produce spatial “fingerprints” of the expected response of various properties under a variety of different scenarios. We will introduce a new method of fingerprinting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that not only provides information concerning the sensitivity of the response at a given location to changes in the large-scale system, but also quantifies the linearity, monotonicity and symmetry of the response. In this way, locations that show high sensitivities to changes in the AMOC, but that exhibit, for example, strongly nonlinear behavior can be avoided during proxy investigations. To demonstrate the proposed approach we will use the example of the response of seawater temperatures to changes in the strength of the AMOC. We present results from an earth-system climate model which has been perturbed with an idealized freshwater forcing scenario in order to reduce the strength of the AMOC in a systematic manner. The seawater temperature anomalies that result from the freshwater forcing are quantified in terms of their sensitivity to the AMOC strength in addition to the linearity and monotonicity of their response. A first-order reversal curve (FORC) approach is employed to investigate and quantify the irreversibility of the temperature response to a slowing and recovering AMOC. Thus, FORCs allow the identification of areas that are unsuitable for proxy reconstructions because their temperature versus AMOC relationship lacks symmetry.     

Comparison of laboratory testing protocols to field observations of the weathering of sulfide-bearing mine tailings

A laboratory weathering study using a humidity cell procedure was conducted on two sulfide-bearing tailing samples from a metallurgical site in Ontario (Canada). The test was accompanied by microbiological studies to enumerate the major groups of sulfur-oxidizing bacteria and determine their potential role at different stages during the oxidation process. To evaluate the utility of this method, results were compared with those of previous laboratory and field studies on the same materials. The mineralogy of the laboratory samples differs only by the addition of a small amount of hydronium-bearing natrojarosite [(Na,H₃O)Fe₃(SO₄)₂(OH)₆] to one sample. The progress of sulfide oxidation and the rates of solute release were determined to evaluate the extent of mineral dissolution. These processes were influenced strongly by the capacity of the material to generate acidity, which was enhanced by the presence of hydronium-bearing natrojarosite. Acid-neutralization processes occurring during the laboratory tests were affected by reaction kinetics, consistent with field observations. In particular, the extent of carbonate-mineral dissolution appears to be different in the laboratory than in the field, where more prolonged rock–water interaction allowed more complete chemical equilibration. As a consequence, the capacity of this test procedure to predict weathering reactions in mine tailings is limited by its inability to reproduce the weathering sequence observed in the field. The results of the microbiological study showed that distinct groups of sulfur-oxidizing bacteria operate at different stages of the oxidative process, as was observed in field studies where tailings oxidation occurred under natural conditions, suggesting that microbiological tests performed for laboratory studies are reflective of field conditions.     

Evolution of fluids associated with metasedimentary sequences from Chaves (North Portugal)

In order to identify and characterise fluids associated with metamorphic rocks from the Chaves region (North Portugal), fluid inclusions were studied in quartz veinlets, concordant with the main foliation, in graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies from areas with distinct metamorphic grade. The study indicates multiple fluid circulation events with a variety of compositions, broadly within the C–H–O–N–salt system. Primary fluid inclusions in quartz contain low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids that were trapped near the peak of regional metamorphism, which occurred during or immediately after D2. The calculated P–T conditions for the western area of Chaves (CW) is P=300–350 MPa and T500 °C, and for the eastern area (CE), P=200–250 MPa and T=400–450 °C. A first generation of secondary fluid inclusions is restricted to discrete cracks at the grain boundaries of quartz and consists of low salinity aqueous–carbonic, H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids. P–T conditions from the fluid inclusions indicate that they were trapped during a thermal event, probably related with the emplacement of the two-mica granites.

A second generation of secondary inclusions occurs in intergranular fractures and is characterised by two types of aqueous inclusions. One type is a low salinity, H₂O–NaCl fluid and the second consists of a high salinity, H₂O–NaCl–CaCl₂ fluid. These fluid inclusions are not related to the metamorphic process and have been trapped after D3 at relatively low P (hydrostatic)–T conditions (P<100 MPa and T<300 °C).

Both the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids in quartz from the graphitic-rich lithologies and the later H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl carbonic fluid in quartz from graphitic-rich and nongraphitic-rich lithologies seem to have a common origin and evolution. They have low salinity, probably resulting from connate waters that were diluted by the water released from mineral dehydration during metamorphism. Their main component is water, but the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids are enriched in CH₄ due to interaction with the C-rich host rocks.

From the early H₂O–CH₄–N₂–NaCl to the later aqueous–carbonic H₂O–CO₂–CH₄–N₂–NaCl fluids, there is an enrichment in CO₂ that is more significant for the fluids associated with nongraphitic-rich lithologies.

The aqueous–carbonic fluids, enriched in H₂O and CH₄, are primarily associated with graphitic-rich lithologies. However, the aqueous–carbonic CO₂-rich fluids were found in both graphitic and nongraphitic-rich units from both the CW and CE studied areas, which are of medium and low metamorphic grade, respectively.     

Tracer anomaly evolution in the flow field of an isolated eddy

We explore the horizontal stirring of a passive tracer field in the vicinity of an isolated, finite amplitude, quasigeostrophic, β-plane eddy. We consider stirring in the presence of a uniform background gradient of tracer concentration as well as cases in which the tracer anomaly is initially contained within the eddy.This paper reports a survey of phenomenology based upon numerical experiments. We explore the sensitivity of results to physical parameters and to various aspects of the numerical simulation.Under the joint effects of β and of non-linearity, the eddy center migrates. Time dependent effects in a radiated wake provide important stirring mechanisms for the background tracer field. An unexpected, persistent result is a tendency to propel a tendril of tracer westward from near the launch latitude of the eddy. In some cases, the westward penetration of the tendril is even further than the migration of the eddy center.Tracer properties characteristics of the launch site of the eddy tend to be captured and carried with the eddy. However, tracer leaks from the eddy, due to both explicit diffusion-like effects and eddy interaction with background flow features, can result in drawing off of secondary tracer patches.We also calculate trajectories of Lagrangian particles launched in and around the eddy.