Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Biodiversity in Hudson River shore zones: influence of shoreline type and physical structure

The shore zones of the Hudson River, like those of many developed waterways, are highly varied, containing a mix of seminatural and highly engineered shores. Our goal was to document the biodiversity supported by different kinds of shore zones in the Hudson. We chose six common types of shore zones, three of them ??natural?? (sand, unconsolidated rock, and bedrock), and three of them engineered (riprap, cribbing, and bulkheads). We measured selected physical characteristics (shore zone width, exposure, substrate roughness and grain size, shoreline complexity) of three examples of each of these shore types, and also sampled communities of terrestrial plants, fishes, and aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates. Community composition of most taxa differed across shore types, and frequently differed between wide, sheltered shores and narrow, exposed shores. Alien plant species were especially well represented along engineered shores. Nevertheless, a great deal of variation in biological communities was not explained by our six-class categorization of shore zones or the physical variables that we measured. No single shore type supported the highest values of all kinds of biodiversity, but engineered shore zones (especially cribbing and bulkheads) tended to have less desirable biodiversity characteristics than ??natural?? shore zones.     

Multicomponent ionic diffusion in porewaters: Coulombic effects revisited

The diffusion of an ion in porewaters cannot occur independently of the other ions in solution as a result of Coulombic coupling, as well as from other effects not considered here. Unfortunately, a longstanding disagreement exists about the correct form and meaning of the equations that describe Coulombic coupling in porewaters, i.e., Ben-Yaakov [Am. J. Sci. 281 (1981) 974] vs. Lasaga [Am. J. Sci. 281 (1981) 981]. This paper re-examines this controversy by reformulating the problem starting from fundamental concepts of mass and charge conservation. We show that these antagonistic formulations are both valid and, in fact, equivalent, when the different interpretations of charge balance are resolved. Most of the disagreements between Ben-Yaakov and Lasaga are then shown to result from differing methods of solution, not fundamental disparities in their models. We note, however, that the explanation for the concept of “stationary” gradients of nonreacting ions as given Ben-Yaakov is inaccurate, and such gradients do lead to diffusive fluxes that are counterbalanced by electrochemical migrational fluxes to produce no net flux (excluding advective flux). We further find that the bicarbonate diffusive flux will not balance the diffusional charge flux of sulfate during its reduction if advection is present. This latter imbalance generates compensating fluxes in the other nonreacting ions. We have applied our theory to a simplified case of sulfate reduction in a marine sediment. The results show that nonreacting ions do diffuse and that with normally expected values of porewater advection, the ratio of the bicarbonate to the sulfate flux can be far different than the ideal value of −2.     

Fast and direct nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test

Regional frequency analysis is an important tool to properly estimate hydrological characteristics at ungauged or partially gauged sites in order to prevent hydrological disasters. The delineation of homogeneous groups of sites is an important first step in order to transfer information and obtain accurate quantile estimates at the target site. The Hosking–Wallis homogeneity test is usually used to test the homogeneity of the selected sites. Despite its usefulness and good power, it presents some drawbacks including the subjective choice of a parametric distribution for the data and a poorly justified rejection threshold. The present paper addresses these drawbacks by integrating nonparametric procedures in the L-moment homogeneity test. To assess the rejection threshold, three resampling methods (permutation, bootstrap and Pólya resampling) are considered. Results indicate that permutation and bootstrap methods perform better than the parametric Hosking–Wallis test in terms of power as well as in time and procedure simplicity. A real-world case study shows that the nonparametric tests agree with the HW test concerning the homogeneity of the volume and the bivariate case while they disagree for the peak case, but that the assumptions of the HW test are not well respected.     

Separation of deterministic signals using independent component analysis (ICA)

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) represents a higher-order statistical technique that is often used to separate mixtures of stochastic random signals into statistically independent sources. Its benefit is that it only relies on the information contained in the observations, i.e. no parametric a-priori models are prescribed to extract the source signals. The mathematical foundation of ICA, however, is rooted in the theory of random signals. This has led to questions whether the application of ICA to deterministic signals can be justified at all? In this context, the possibility of using ICA to separate deterministic signals such as complex sinusoidal cycles has been subjected to previous studies. In many geophysical and geodetic applications, however, understanding long-term trend in the presence of periodical components of an observed phenomenon is desirable. In this study, therefore, we extend the previous studies with mathematically proving that the ICA algorithm with diagonalizing the 4th order cumulant tensor, through the rotation of experimental orthogonal functions, will indeed perfectly separate an unknown mixture of trend and sinusoidal signals in the data, provided that the length of the data set is infinite. In other words, we justify the application of ICA to those deterministic signals that are most relevant in geodetic and geophysical applications.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Recurrence in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is one of the most tsunamigenic regions of the world and recently experienced a mega-tsunami in the Sumatra region on 26 December 2004 (M _W 9.2 earthquake) with tsunami intensity I (Soloviev-Imamura intensity scale) equal to 4.5, causing heavy destruction of lives and property in the Indian Ocean rim countries. In this study, probabilities of occurrences of large tsunamis with tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 (average wave heights H ≥ 2.83 m and H ≥ 5.66 m, respectively) during a specified time interval were calculated using three stochastic models, namely, Weibull, gamma and lognormal. Tsunami recurrence was calculated for the whole Indian Ocean and the special case of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java (ASJ) region, excluding the 1945 Makran event from the main data set. For this purpose, a reliable, homogeneous and complete tsunami catalogue with I ≥ 2.0 during the period 1797–2006 was used. The tsunami hazard parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithm of likelihood function (ln L) was estimated and used to test the suitability of models in the examined region. The Weibull model was observed to be the most suitable model to estimate tsunami recurrence in the region. The sample mean intervals of occurrences of tsunamis with intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0 were calculated for the observed data as well as for the Weibull, gamma and lognormal models. The estimated cumulative and conditional probabilities in the whole Indian Ocean region show recurrence periods of about 27–30 years (2033–2036) and 35–36 years (2039–2040) for tsunami intensities I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, while it is about 31–35 years (2037–2041) and 41–42 years (2045–2046) for a tsunami of intensity I ≥ 2.0 and I ≥ 3.0, respectively, in the ASJ region. A high probability (>0.9) of occurrence of large tsunamis with I ≥ 2.0 in the next 30–40 years in the Indian Ocean region was revealed.     

Determining the location of buried plastic water pipes from measurements of ground surface vibration

‘Mapping the Underworld’ is a UK-based project, which aims to create a multi-sensor device that combines complementary technologies for remote buried utility service detection and location. One of the technologies to be incorporated in the device is low-frequency vibro-acoustics, and techniques for detecting buried infrastructure, in particular plastic water pipes, are being investigated. One of the proposed techniques involves excitation of the pipe at some known location with concurrent vibrational mapping of the ground surface in order to infer the location of the remainder of the pipe. In this paper, measurements made on a dedicated pipe rig are reported. Frequency response measurements relating vibrational velocity on the ground to the input excitation were acquired. Contour plots of the unwrapped phase revealed the location of the pipe to within 0.1-0.2 m. Magnitude contour plots revealed the excitation point and also the location of the pipe end. By examining the unwrapped phase gradients along a line above the pipe, it was possible to identify the wave-type within the pipe responsible for the ground surface vibration. Furthermore, changes in the ground surface phase speed computed using this method enabled the location of the end of the pipe to be confirmed.