The mechanisms of shallow earthquakes and the monitoring of a comprehensive test ban

The ability of seismological criteria to identify earthquakes from underground explosions depends partly on the orientation of the earthquake source. Well-determined double-couple moment tensor solutions for a large number of earthquakes have been published in the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) and United Slates Geological Survey (USGS) catalogues. Statistical analyses of these catalogues indicate that the distribution of the orientation of earthquake mechanisms is not random. The distribution of the T axes shows significant clustering around the downward vertical, indicating that a larger number of earthquake mechanisms radiate compressional P -wave energy to teleseismic distances from near the maximum of the radiation pattern than is predicted if earthquake sources are randomly oriented double couples. The clustered T axes correspond to compressional dip-slip mechanisms, and it is this type of mechanism which is believed to cause both the m _b: M _s (the ratio of body-wave to surface-wave magnitude) and first-motion criteria to misidentify an earthquake as an explosion.     

The Influence of Geomorphologic Heritage on Present Nival Erosion: Peñalara, Spain

This article examines how snow plays a role in current erosive processes in a high mountain area (1800—2400 m a.s.l.) known as Peñalara, located in Spain's Central Range (40°50' N; 3°58' W). The hypothesis maintains that snow becomes an important erosive factor when it accumulates over sedimentary or weathered materials, therefore geomorphological heritage is a key factor in nival erosion. To test this hypothesis, the authors identified the landforms in the study area and determined their relative ages by weathering and lichenometry ( Rizocarpon geographicum ag. ), differentiating between preglacial, glacial (Recent Pleistocene) and postglacial (Holocene) forms. The information was used to plot a reticulate pattern of observation sites for the study area. Snow depth and the movement of selected blocks at each site were recorded from October 1991 to June 1995. The relationship between late-lying snowpatches, geomorphological heritage and current erosive processes was determined. Between 1800 and 2000 m a.s.l., there is an indirect relationship between snowpatches and predominant processes (stream incision and gelifluction) on terminal moraines. Between 2000 and 2200 m, direct action is present where there are late-laying snowpatches on lateral moraines and some glacial steps. Between 2200 and 2400 m, gelifraction and gravity processes are also in direct relation to snowpatches.     

Science and the desertification debate

Desertification is an environmental issue that has major environmental and social dimensions, and which has been controversial in a number of respects. The recent UN Convention on Desertification and Drought places considerable emphasis on the social dimensions of the problem and the role local peoples and NGOs have to play in tackling it. When desertification first became regarded as a major issue in the 1970s, science was seen to have a major role in understanding and solving the problem, but in some circles has been regarded as failing to contribute usefully. This paper explores the nature of scientific contributions, why science may have been seen to fail to serve the needs of policy-makers, and why scientific findings may have been misinterpreted in broader circles dealing with the issue. It concludes by identifying areas where science has still a valuable role to play in an issue that is now perhaps regarded as more political and social than scientific.     

Estimating Climate-Change Impacts on Colorado Plateau Snowpack Using Downscaling Methods

This study develops observed climate-based downscaling transfer functions that are used with general circulation model (GCM) output to assess potential global-change impacts on Upper Colorado Plateau, USA, water resources. Daily automated snow water equivalent stations are used with 700 mb atmospheric circulation to determine empirical transfer functions. Downscaling methodologies using multiple regression and neural networks are evaluated, with the neural network results explaining approximately 70%of the daily snowfall variance. The neural network-based transfer functions are used with the GENESIS GCM to simulate snowfall characteristics in both a 1xCO₂ and a 2xCO₂ climate. While the total precipitation simulated by the 2xCO₂ analysis remains nearly the same as today, less will fall as snow; specifically, snow water equivalence shows significant reduction (except in the Green River Basin) as the snow season is reduced by 58 days on average.     

Limiting the soil degradational impacts of wildfire in pine and eucalyptus forests in Portugal: A comparison of alternative post-fire management practices

In newly burnt and unburnt pine and eucalyptus forest in Portugal, overland flow and soil losses were monitored to assess the impacts of the following post-fire treatments: application of different quantities of logging litter; rip-ploughing compared with minimum tillage prior to planting eucalyptus seedlings; and clearance of pine needles and vegetation. Eucalyptus logging litter reduced soil losses by up to 95 per cent. The impact of pine logging litter was equivocal, but removal of pine needles increased soil losses elevenfold. Implications for soil longevity, soil quality and land management strategy are discussed.     

Tolerance and Rejection: The Vote on Colorado's Amendment Two

Coloradoapos;s 1992 vote on Amendment Two was the first meaningful, broad-based test of attitudes on gay rights within the United States. Analysis of voting results distinguishes places of tolerance from places of rejection. Social differences separating these places reflect typical contrasts between “traditionalists” and “modernizers” found in cultural conflicts at the national level. Places showing support for gay rights are recreational-based mountain communities, urban areas, and university communities. Those showing opposition are rural, agriculturally based communities. Suburban areas produced a more ambivalent vote.     

Unsiting Nuclear Power Plants: Decommissioning Risks and Their Land Use Context*

Nuclear power plant siting provided the first significant public opportunity to examine nuclear safety and to affect nuclear policy. These discussions were prompted and fueled by perceptions of nuclear risk. Now, as we begin the process of nuclear decommissioning, we are finding that power plant removal—unsiting–is also likely to attract public interest. This paper presents a preliminary survey of how we are likely to react to this emerging theme, applying these findings within a land use context to see if it is likely to produce issues salient to the public. In so doing it also examines how these issues could affect decommissioning timing and type. It suggests that the most likely prospect is that power plants will remain on the landscape long after they are closed.     

Mg tracer diffusion in aluminosilicate garnets at 750-850° C, 1 atm. and 1300° C, 8.5 GPa

 Tracer diffusion coefficients of Mg in natural aluminosilicate garnets of composition Alm₃₈Pyr₅₀Gr₁₀Sp₂ and Alm₇₃Pyr₂₁Gr₅Sp₁ have been measured at 1 bar, 750-850° C and at 8.5 GPa, 1300° C by chemically depositing a salt layer enriched in ²⁶Mg on the specially prepared surface of a garnet single crystal. Diffusion anneals at 1 atmosphere (101325 Pa) were carried out at a controlled f _{O 2} of ∼10^−17.5 bars maintained by a flowing gas mix of CO-CO₂. Annealing conditions were carefully chosen to avoid decomposition of garnet by redox reactions. High pressure anneals were carried out in a multianvil apparatus. Induced diffusion profiles (0.1–0.6 μm) were measured by an ion-microprobe with SIMS attachment. Diffusion coefficients at 1 atmosphere are in excellent agreement with extrapolation of data from high P-T experiments (Loomis et al. 1985; Chakraborty and Ganguly 1992) and also with the low temperature (750–900° C) dataset of Cygan and Lasaga (1985) if the diffusion coefficients are assumed to be proportional to f _{O 2} ^1/6. Such an f _{O 2} dependence, however, makes this dataset inconsistent with the recent dataset of Schwandt et al. (1995) on garnets of composition (Alm₁₅Pyr₇₂Gr₁₃Sp₀) unless a strong compositional dependence of Mg tracer diffusivity for Mg-rich garnets is invoked. The present experimental results show that such a compositional dependence is weak to non-existent for garnets with >38 mole percent almandine component. It is emphasized that the temperature dependence of diffusion coefficients at constant oxygen fugacities (activation energy ≈54 kcal/mol) are different from that along an oxygen fugacity buffer (activation energy ≈64.5 kcal/mol), as already pointed out by Chakraborty and Ganguly (1991). This distinction is of importance for modelling natural processes. The measurements at low temperatures either eliminate the need for, or greatly reduce the uncertainty of, extrapolation of laboratory data for modelling metamorphic processes. The high pressure results combined with those from Chakraborty and Ganguly (1992) and Loomis et al. (1985) indicate that pressure dependence of Mg tracer diffusivity in garnets is much stronger than that in forsterite (Chakraborty et al. 1994). This difference in pressure dependence of diffusivity may be caused by the difference in compressibility of the coordination polyhedra of Mg between olivines and garnets. Activation volumes of Mg tracer diffusion as high as 8 cm³/mol may be estimated using the present data in combination with earlier results. These data suggest that at a temperature of 1300° C, Mg tracer diffusion rates in garnets will decrease by an order of magnitude for every 100 km depth. The pressure effect will be stronger at lower temperatures. For calculations involving diffusion coefficients of garnets at high pressures (e.g. mantle xenoliths, eclogites) the pressure dependence of diffusivity must be taken into account. Received: 21 December 1994 / Accepted: 22 September 1995