Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Tectonics of southwestern Mexico,isotopic evidence,nuclear Central America,Late Cretaceous break up

In the paleogeographic reconstruction of Mexico and northern Central America, an ever-increasing amount of evidence shows that the entire region is a collage of suspect terranes transported from abroad, whose timing and sense of motion are now beginning to be understood. Among these, the Chortis block (nuclear Central America) and the Baja California Peninsula have been proposed as pieces of continent separated from the Pacific coast of southwestern Mexico, that have moved either southeastward by the Farallon plate or northwestward by the Kula plate. Previous studies mainly confined to the northern margin of the Chortis block, confirmed a left-lateral displacement of 130 km in Neogene time. Further studies made northwestward along the Mexican coast provided a better understanding of magmatic and metamorphic processes in the area, and suggested times of detachment increased to 30 Ma, 40 Ma, and 66 Ma. The pre-detachment westernmost position of the block has changed, depending on the model chosen, from Puerto Vallarta and beyond, to the current position. Here we show that the isotopic mineral ages from coastal granites along the coast from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco (80 Ma) to Puerto Angel, Oaxaca (11 Ma) record systematic decrease of cooling ages from NW to SE. This pattern is interpreted to result from the progressive uplift of rocks exposed at the present-day coast in that direction, such uplift occurred in response to the development of the Middle America Trench at the newly formed continental margin when the Chortis block was sliding at an average rate of 1.5 cm/year in a sinistral sense to its present position. Our results also constrain the position of the Kula-Farallon spreading axis north of Puerto Vallarta. These observations led us to conclude that several indicators point to this time and region for the onset of strike-slip drifting of the Chortis block toward its current position. Here, we also present several view points in terms of other possilble interpretations to different tectonic, geologic and isotopic data sets published recently by different authors.     

ON THE GENERATION OF P AND S WAVE ENERGY IN CRYSTALLINE ROCKS*

A seismic source consisting of a 700 kg weight that could be dropped vertically or projected down a ramp inclined at 45° to the vertical was tested as a source of P, SV and SH waves within a crystalline rock body at Chalk River, Ontario. The seismic energy was recorded by arrays of both horizontal and vertical-component geophones at distances between 30 and 600 m from the source, which was operated over glacial overburden varying in thickness from less than a meter to a few tens of meters. Seismic energy was more efficiently generated when the overburden thickness was at least several meters. The signals identified visually as S are generally true S, though some may be the converted wave PS. The SV amplitudes are generally larger than those of P, regardless of the type of shot, while the signal frequencies are roughly 60 Hz and 90 Hz, respectively. The horizontal-component seismograms for the inclined shots showed no evidence of SH polarization, and the SH amplitudes were only rarely enhanced relative to P and SV amplitudes on changing from vertical to inclined shots. These unexpected results are attributed to the combined effect of the high velocity and density contrasts and the irregularity of the boundary between the glacial overburden and the rock body.     

Viticulture in California: Cool airconditioned valleys as the equivalent of warm sheltered “côtes”

This essay focuses on the distinctive geographic setting of viticulture in California. It assesses the significance of the prevailing environmental conditions for wine growing in California and offers an explanation of the spatial pattern of Californian wine climate regions. Wine varieties in California, as almost everywhere in the world, are of European origin (Vitis vinifera). The ultimate result of a bio-geographic diffusion process of Vitis vinifera was the development of superior wine varieties in a climate that is marginal for wine growing in Western Europe (Cf-Köppen). Nestled in a cooler and more precarious macro-climatological environment, the relatively warm micro climates of the slopes (cotes) allow wine growing. The noble varieties peculiar to the slopes have been successfully transplanted in California's coastal valleys, this not-withstanding the California environment, which is diametrically opposed to that in Western Europe. In a hot macro environment (Cs-Köppen), high-quality wine growing is only possible due to the cool airconditioned micro climate in the valleys.     

Wrench faults,pull-apart basins,and volcanism in central Oregon: A new tectonic model based on image interpretation

A tectonic study of the Newberry Crater region of central Oregon has been based on the interpretation of Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Two major faults, the Brothers-Tumalo and Eugene-Denio Faults, pass NW-SE through the region and step to the right at the eastern margin of the Cascades Range. Dextral wrench faulting on these structures during the Tertiary controlled the formation of the La Pine Basin, a pull-apart structure containing Tertiary and Quaternary sediments and volcanics. Tertiary wrench faulting appears to have been associated with rotations of crustal blocks at a plate margin, but was superseded in the Quaternary by extensional faulting of the Basin and Range province. Newberry Crater and other major bimodal volcanic centres in the NW Cordillera (Crater Lake, Medicine Lake, Mt. St. Helens) seem to have a similar tectonic setting in crustal pull-aparts. A relationship between magma type and fault trend at Newberry and Medicine Lake is suggested.     

Sur quelques concentrations plombo-zinciferes du devonien inferieur du massif schisteux rhenan

Zusammenfassung The Lower Devonian of the Rhine Schist Massif is characterized by a fine detrital sedimentation which reflects a coastal plain environment located between the Old Red Sandstone continent in the N and the marine Bohemian Facies in the SE. Mineralisations are located within these coastal-plain sediments, especially in fractured horizons topped by pelitic and floored by sandy sediments of Sieg Emsian age. The mineralised localities occur in three zones: the districts of Bensberg, Eitorf and Mayen. The Lüderich locality (Bensberg) is the most important having approximately one million tons of Zn and Pb metal. It is localised within a zone having marked sedimentary characteristics since the Siegenian. Mineralisation occurs as penecontemporaneous lenses, fracture fillings etc, formed at abnormal contacts between lithological units having different competance during Siegenian and Lower Emsian deformation. However, locally there is lateral transition between the upper units of the sandy channel series and the lower units of the pelitic swamp facies. Vertical extension of mineralisations is strictly limited to the tectonic contact zone between the Odenspiel Sandstone and the Bensberg pelites. Study of mineralisations at various levels (mapping, morphology, structure, paragenetic and geochemical) leads to the formulation of a genetic model requiring complex fracturation at the contact between contrasting lithologies and preferential drainage through these fractured zones; metals are trapped on the sandstone floor, the pelitic roof trapping the vadose hydrothermal solutions. These basic controls seem to apply throughout the Bensberg, Eitorf and Mayen districts. On a more regional scale the age variations of the gangue sediments reflects a lateral displacement of red/grey facies limits due to coastal evolution. Thus one may demonstrate a type of mineral occurrence whose model may be that of epigenetic reconcentration within fractures affecting syngenetic geochemical anomalies.Zusammenfassung Das Unterdevon des Rheinischen Schiefergebirges wird durch eine feinkörnige detritische Sedimentation gekennzeichnet. Die Verteilung dieser detritischen Sedimente widerspiegelt eine flache Küstenlandschaft zwischen dem Kontinent des Unterrotliegenden im Norden und des Meeres mit der Böhmischen Fazies im Südosten. In diesen Schichten befinden sich gangförmige Vererzungen, die in Bruchzonen auftreten, die ein pelitisches Hangendes und ein sandsteinreiches Liegendes vom Siegen-Ems Alter haben. Die Lagerstätten kommen in drei Bezirken vor: Der Bensberger Bezirk, der Bezirk Eitorf und der Bezirk Mayen. Die Lagerstätte Lüderich (Bensberger Revier) ist die größte (ungefähr eine Million Tonnen Metall Zink+Blei). Sie befindet sich in einer Zone, in der schon in der Siegen-Stufe bemerkenswerte sedimentäre Strukturen auftreten. Die Vererzung tritt als penekonkordante Linsen, Gänge, Stockwerke in tektonischen Kontaktzonen auf. Diese Kontaktzonen befinden sich zwischen 2 verschiedenen sedimentären Einheiten, deren Gesteinseigenschaften sehr verschieden sind. Es handelt sich um Pelite mit Sandstein-Einschaltungen einerseits, die zur unteren Emsstufe gehören sollen und um fluviatile Sandsteine andererseits, die zur oberen Siegenstufe gehören sollen. Lokal ist ein lateraler Übergang durch Faziesänderung von den oberen Sandsteinen in die unteren Pelitschichten jedoch nicht unmöglich. Die Sandsteine vertreten einen fluviatilen Sedimentationsbereich, die Pelite einen sumpfigen Sedimentationsbereich. Die Vererzung (mit einer vertikalen Ausdehnung ungefähr von 300 m) tritt nur im Bereich der Kontaktzone zwischen den Odenspieler Sandsteinen und den Peliten der Unteren Bensberger Schichten auf. Die Resultate der Kartographie, der morphologischen Studie der Erzkörper, der Struktur und der Paragenese führen zu einem genetischen Modell. Dabei spielt die Anwesenheit einer Bruchstruktur an der Grenze zwischen 2 Bereichen mit verschiedenen lithologischen Eigenschaften eine Hauptrolle für die Konzentration der im Hangenden fein verteilten Metalle. Die hydrothermalen Lösungen kommen demnach nicht von der Teufe, sondern aus dem Nebengestein. Im ganzen Bensberger Erzrevier wie in der Gegend von Eitorf und in der Gegend von Mayen finden wir dieselben Leitfäden für die Vererzung in den Lagerstätten und Vorkommen. Beobachtet man die ganze Provinz, dann merkt man, daß die Altersverschiedenheiten in den Nebengesteinen der verschiedenen Lagerstätten eine geographische Wanderung der Faziesgrenze zwischen rot und grau in dieser küstennahen Ebene Widerspiegeln. Die verschiedenen Vorkommen und Lagerstätten treten immer in unmittelbarer Nähe dieser Grenze auf. Die Eigenschaften dieser Lagerstätten weisen auf eine Bildung durch eine epigenetische Umlagerung in eine gangförmige Bruchstruktur hin.     

Schorlomite: a discussion of the crystal chemistry, formula, and inter-species boundaries

Examination of schorlomite from ijolite at Magnet Cove (USA) and silicocarbonatite at Afrikanda (Russia), using electron-microprobe and hydrogen analyses, X-ray diffraction and Mössbauer spectroscopy, shows the complexity of substitution mechanisms operating in Ti-rich garnets. These substitutions involve incorporation of Na in the eightfold-coordinated X site, Fe²⁺ and Mg in the octahedrally coordinated Y site, and Fe³⁺, Al and Fe²⁺ in the tetrahedrally coordinated Z site. Substitutions Ti⁴⁺Fe³⁺Fe³⁺_–1Si_–1 and Ti⁴⁺Al³⁺Fe³⁺_–1Si_–1 are of major significance to the crystal chemistry of schorlomite, whereas Fe²⁺ enters the Z site in relatively minor quantities (<3% Fe). There is no evidence (either structural or indirect, such as discrepancies between the measured and calculated Fe²⁺ contents) for the presence of ^[6]Ti³⁺ or ^[4]Ti⁴⁺ in schorlomite. The simplified general formula of schorlomite can be written as Ca₃Ti⁴⁺₂[Si_3-x(Fe³⁺,Al,Fe²⁺)_xO₁₂], keeping in mind that the notion of end-member composition is inapplicable to this mineral. In the published analyses of schorlomite with low to moderate Zr contents, x ranges from 0.6 to 1.0, i.e. Ti⁴⁺ in the Y site is <2 and accompanied by appreciable amounts of lower-charged cations (in particular, Fe³⁺, Fe²⁺ and Mg). For classification purposes, the mole percentage of schorlomite can be determined as the amount of ^[6]Ti⁴⁺, balanced by substitutions in the Z site, relative to the total occupancy in the Y site: (^[6]Ti⁴⁺–^[6]Fe²⁺–^[6]Mg²⁺– ^[8]Na⁺)/2. In addition to the predominant schorlomite component, the crystals examined in this work contain significant (>15 mol.%) proportions of andradite (Ca₃Fe³⁺₂Si₃O₁₂), morimotoite (Ca₃Fe²⁺TiSi₃O₁₂), and Ca₃MgTiSi₃O₁₂. The importance of accurate quantitative determination and assignment of Fe, Ti and other cations to the crystallographic sites for petrogenetic studies is discussed.

The hard solar X-ray burst of 18 September 1963

A hard solar X-ray burst was observed by J-P. Legrand on 18 September 1963, 13:56 UT, at balloon altitude. It lasted a few minutes; a steep increase was followed by an exponential decay. During its declining phase a weak radio burst was observed on 3 and 10 cm, not on longer wavelengths.Maximum radio intensity occurred two minutes after that of the X-ray burst. The X-ray and radio bursts ended almost simultaneously. Optically a small shortlived (some minutes) flare point occurred simultaneously with the X-ray burst in a magnetically interesting part of the active region of September 1963. The X-burst photons seem to have had an energy of about 0.5 MeV. The burst was therefore of a fairly rare type, since very few other bursts with similar photon energies have been detected up to now.It is suggested that a mass of gas, magnetically confined to a volume of about 5·10²⁵ cm³ in the low corona, containing about 3·10³⁵ electrons was accelerated to energies of about 0.5 MeV. The gas gradually expanded, partly also to higher levels. The gyro-synchrotron radiation, emitted by the plasma became observable after about two minutes. At the lower radio frequencies the radiation was absorbed by overlying undisturbed coronal matter. Quantitative computations justify this model. A detailed summary of the events, and some numerical data are given in the concluding Section 8 and in Table V.     

Faunas from the upper silurian (upper ludlovian) in the ludlow-much wenlock district,England

Faunal lists for 17 sections in the Overton Formation are presented. Faunal diversity appears to increase towards the formations base while faunal dominance appears to increase towards its top.