A comparative study of the zooplankton in two adjacent embayments,Port Phillip and Westernport Bays,Australia

We report on a year's study of spatial and seasonal patterns of zooplankton abundance in Port Phillip and Westernport Bays, July 1982 to August 1983. These two bays, closely adjacent on the southern coast of Victoria, Australia, differ in several respects: Port Phillip is a nearly landlocked bay with a broad basin, while Westernport is an open tidal embayment with extensive mud and seagrass banks. Both bays have a resident zooplankton fauna distinct from that of Bass Strait. Although these resident communities have many species in common, patterns of abundance and dominance are quite different. We found that the holoplankton of Port Phillip was about half copepods, mostly Paracalanus indicus, with 23% Caldocera and 21% larvaceans. Westernport Bay zooplankton was dominated by Acartia tranteri, with no resident cladoceran fauna. Bass Strait species were more often found in Westernport than in Port Phillip Bay, but the resident community of Port Phillip Bay was more similar to that of Bass Strait than to that of Westernport.Although this study was undertaken in an exceptionally dry year, the available historical data show that the overall patterns found in 1982–1983 are typical for these bays. The differences in community composition probably relate to differences in depth profile, predator abundance, and suspended matter between the bays.     

Palaeotemperature reconstructions of the European permafrost zone during marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 compared with climate model results

A palaeotemperature reconstruction based on periglacial phenomena in Europe north of approximately 51 °N, is compared with high‐resolution regional climate model simulations of the marine oxygen isotope Stage 3 (Stage 3) palaeoclimate. The experiments represent Stage 3 warm (interstadial), Stage 3 cold (stadial) and Last Glacial Maximum climatic conditions. The palaeotemperature reconstruction deviates considerably for the Stage 3 cold climate experiments, with mismatches up to 11 °C for the mean annual air temperature and up to 15 °C for the winter temperature. However, in this reconstruction various factors linking climate and permafrost have not been taken into account. In particular a relatively thin snow cover and high climatic variability of the glacial climate could have influenced temperature limits for ice‐wedge growth. Based on modelling the 0 °C mean annual ground temperature proves to be an appropriate upper temperature limit. Using this limit, mismatches with the Stage 3 cold climate experiments have been reduced but still remain. We therefore assume that the Stage 3 ice wedges were generated during short (decadal time‐scale) intervals of extreme cold climate, below the mean temperatures indicated by the Stage 3 cold climate model simulations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quaternary stratigraphy of the buried valleys of the lower Red Deer River,Alberta, Canada

The Quaternary fills of the buried valleys of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan have provided a wealth of information for the reconstruction of the glacial-interglacial record of the western plains of Canada, and this paper reports on the previously unstudied stratigraphy of the buried Calgary Valley and its former tributaries in the lower Red Deer River area. We attempt to differentiate Empress Group sediments, which potentially relate to pre-glacial, interglacial/ interstadial and post-glacial lake and river deposition, using sedimentology, stratigraphy and palaeoecology. Twenty-nine stratigraphical logs indicate that Empress Group sediments have infilled a considerably large area of badlands and tributary coulees that once drained into the Calgary Valley, located 15 km to the north of Dinosaur Provincial Park. Radiocarbon dates of 52.4 ka, 27.4 ka and > 42.4 ka and glacially modified quartz grains suggest that at least some of the valley fills date to interglacial or interstadial periods and may be mid-Wisconsinan in age. However, outcrops of an older till overlying other valley fills suggest that the buried valleys were only partially excavated during interglacials/interstadials and that older (even pre-glacial) sediments could have survived. Subglacial channels, recognisable on air photographs, largely coincide with buried valley positions due to the preferential excavation of the Quaternary sediment by meltwater and are filled with post-glacial lake sediment from which a radiocarbon date of 16 ka BP was obtained. Pre-glacial and glacial/post-glacial Empress Group sediments are lithologically indistinct but cover a large time span in southern Alberta.     

The significance of Messinian occurrences of Globorotalia margaritae and Globorotalia puncticulata in Sicily

Globorotalia puncticulata and Globorotalia margaritae are critical species that define internationally recognized planktonic foraminiferal biozones in the Pliocene. These biozones are defined from stratotype sections on Sicily and their fauna are commonly considered to have been introduced to the Mediterranean after an influx of Atlantic water that terminated the late Miocene desiccation of the basin. Herein new discoveries of these species in rocks that predate the late Miocene desiccation are described. These data are supported by magneto- and lithostratigraphy that have been integrated at a single continuous section. Not only do these discoveries question the existing foraminiferal biozone stratigraphy, they also suggest new models for the dispersal of planktonic species. It is proposed that Globorotalia puncticulata and perhaps even Globorotalia margaritae evolved in the Mediterranean during earliest Messinian times (during or before chron C3Bn1n) and dispersed into the Atlantic. This suggests that a marine connection remained between the two sea areas until at least chron C3An.1n. Using the existing geomagnetic polarity time scale, these occurrences are some 2 Myr earlier than previously recorded in the Mediterranean. The distribution of G. margaritae and G. puncticulata in Mediterranean sections is likely to reflect palaeoenvironment or the preservation of deposits rather than the absolute age of the sediments.     

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring‐early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70‐year‐old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high‐latitude stands. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.     

Coma expansion and photometry of comet Bowell (1980b)

Optical and infrared observations of comet Bowell are presented. The optical observations indicate that the solid grain coma is expanding at only 0.9 ± 0.2 m sec^?1. This is two orders of magnitude slower than the local gas sound speed and may suggest that gas drag is not responsible for stripping the grains from the nucleus. The hypothesis of “electrostatic snap-off” is tentatively advanced to account for the ejection of the grains. Alternatively, the grains may have an unusual size distribution. The extrapolated motion of the grains suggests that the bulk of the coma was formed when the comet was at a heliocentric distance $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$. Any water ice in the nucleus would be too cold to give rise to the observed grain coma by equilibrium sublimation at this R. Further evidence against the production of the grain coma by equilibrium sublimation of the nucleus is provided by broadband (J) photometric observations. Almost all of the observed photometric variations of comet Bowell can be ascribed to geometric effects. Simple models indicate that the total grain cross section has been nearly constant since the time of the earliest observations. The present observations, which suggest that water ice sublimation does not control either the optical morphology or the near infrared photometric behavior of comet Bowell, are contrasted with reported high OH production rates. It is concluded that the grain coma may be largely a relic of activity occurring on the nucleus at $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$ while the OH may indicate sublimation from the nucleus near perihelion and from coma grains near $\text{R ? 4.6}\text{AU}$.