A Validation of CloudSat and CALIPSO's Temperature,Humidity, Cloud Detection,and Cloud Base Height over the Arctic Marine Cryosphere

Abstract

This study presents a semi‐analytic non‐iterative solution for the Monin‐Obukhov similarity equations under unstable surface conditions. The solution is represented in terms of the non‐dimensional Monin‐Obukhov stability parameter z/L. This parameter is given as a function of the bulk Richardson number and other surface parameters including the heat and momentum roughness lengths which are generally assumed to be different in this formulation. The proposed formulations give results that are both quantitatively and qualitatively consistent with the fully iterated numerical solution for a wide range of surface parameters.     

The Euro-Atlantic Circulation Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation Cycle of Tropical Heating: Coupled GCM Intervention Experiments

Abstract

Intervention experiments using the Coupled Forecast System model, version 2 (CFSv2), have been performed in which various Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) evolutions were added to the model’s internally generated heating: Slow Repeated Cycles, Slow Single Cycle, Fast Repeated Cycles, and Fast Single Cycle. In each experiment, one of these specified MJO evolutions of tropical diabatic heating was added in multiple ensemble reforecasts of boreal winter (1 November to 31 March for 31 winters: 1980–2010). Since in each experiment, multiple re-forecasts were made with the identical heating evolution added, predictable component analysis is used to identify modes with the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Traditional MJO-phase analysis of total model heating (dominated by internally generated heating) shows that the MJO-related heating structure compares well with heating estimated from observed fast and slow episodes; however, the model heating is larger by a factor of two. The evolution of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes indicates a clear response due to the added heating, with a robust increase in the frequency of occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO?) after the heating crosses into the Pacific and a somewhat less robust increase in the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) following Indian Ocean heating. In the Fast Cycle experiments, the model response is somewhat muted compared with the Slow Cycle experiments. The Scandinavian Blocking regime becomes more frequent prior to the NAO? regime. The two leading modes in the predictable component analysis of 300?hPa height (Z300), synoptic scale feedback (DZ300), and planetary wave diabatic heating in all experiments form an oscillatory pair with high statistical significance. The oscillatory pair represents the cyclic response to the particular MJO signal (Fast or Slow, Single, or Repeated Cycles) in each case. The period is about 64 days for the Slow Cycle and 36 days for the Fast Cycle, consistent with the imposed periods. The time series of one of the leading modes of Z300 is highly anti-correlated with the frequency of occurrence of the NAO– in the Repeated Cycle experiments. A clear cycle involving the Z300 and DZ300 leading modes is identified.     

Delivering the two degree global climate change target using a flexible ratchet framework

Global climate negotiations have been characterized by a divide between developed and developing nations – a split which has served as a persistent barrier to international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Notable progress in bridging this division was achieved at the 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris through the introduction of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, the collective ambition of submitted INDCs falls short of a global 2°C target, requiring an effective ratchet mechanism to review and increase national commitments. Inequitable distribution of additional responsibilities risks re-opening historic divisions between parties. This article presents a flexible ratchet framework which shares mitigation commitments on the basis of per capita equity in line with emerging requirements for a 2°C target. The framework has been designed through convergence between developed and developing nations; developed nation targets are based on an agreed standardized percentage reduction wherever emissions are above per capita equity; developing nations are required to peak emissions at or below per capita equity levels by an agreed convergence date. The proposed framework has the flexibility to be integrated with current INDCs and to evolve in line with shifting estimates of climate sensitivity.

Policy relevance

The outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) negotiations in Paris offered mixed results in terms of level of ambition and submitted national commitments. A global agreement to keep average global temperature rise below two degrees was maintained; however, current pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are projected to result in an average warming of close to three degrees. The implementation of a global ratchet mechanism to scale-up national commitments will remain key to closing this ambition gap to reach this two degree target. How this upscaling of responsibility is shared between parties will be a defining discussion point within future negotiations. This study presents a standardized, equity-based framework for how this ratchet mechanism can be implemented – a framework designed to be flexible for evolution in line with better understanding of climate sensitivity, and adaptable for integrations with current INDC proposals.     

Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.     

The climate-population nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging degradation trends in rangeland and pastoral livelihood zones

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have substantially increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. We identify regions where substantial rainfall decrease between two periods interrupted by the 1998 El Nino event (1981–2012) in the East African Horn is coupled with human population density increases. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using AVHRR and MODIS vegetation products from 1981 to 2012, we observe changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn. We observe vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing reduced main-growing season precipitation; these areas are also concurrently experiencing increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation patterns only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes might be responsible for the observed declining vegetation condition. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, pointing to potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings may have implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends and increased climatic variability.     

Winter‐time near‐surface currents in the strait of Juan de Fuca

Abstract

During November 1976 to February 1977 near‐surface wind, current and temperature measurements were made at three sites along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong tidal currents and major intrusions of warmer, fresher offshore coastal water were superimposed upon the estuarine circulation of near‐surface seaward flow. The r.m.s. amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal currents were ～30 cms^‐1 and 30–47 cm s^‐1, respectively. The vector‐mean flow at 4 m‐depth was seaward and decreased in speed from 28 cm s^‐1 at 74 km from the entrance to 9 cm s^‐1 at 11 km from the entrance. On five occasions intrusions of 1–3 C warmer northeast Pacific coastal water occurred for durations of 1–10 days. The 25 cm s^‐1 up‐strait speed of the intrusive lens agreed to within 20% of the gravity current speed computed from Benjamin's (1968) hydraulic model. The near‐surface currents associated with the intrusions and the southerly coastal winds were significantly correlated, indicating that the intrusions were initiated when shoreward Ekman currents advected Pacific coastal water into the Strait. The reversals were not significantly coherent with the along‐strait sea surface slope measured along the north side of the Strait nor were they strongly related to local wind forcing.     

R&D Subsidies and Climate Policy: Is There a “Free Lunch”?

Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R&D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R&D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R&D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R&D, this R&D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R&D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R&D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare.     

An Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Results are presented from the first intercomparison of large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, in as much as they generate resolved turbulence and reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1-m and 2-m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to subgrid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.     

The Reconstruction of Paleovegetation and Paleoclimate in the Late Pliocene of West Yunnan, China

The Eryuan palynoflora from the Late Pliocene of western Yunnan, China is described in this paper, and is compared with two contemporary palynofloras from Yangyi and Longling. The palynological data of the three locations are analyzed to reconstruct the climatic parameters of these areas at that time by using the Coexistence Approach. The Late Pliocene climatic parameters of Eryuan are estimated, i.e., the mean annual temperature ranged from 13.3 to 18.6^∘C, the mean temperature of the warmest month from 24.6 to 27.5^∘C, the mean temperature of the coldest month from 1.9 to 12.1^∘C, the difference in temperatures of coldest and warmest month from 14.2 to 16.6^∘C, the mean annual precipitation from 619.9 to 1484.3 mm, the mean maximum monthly precipitation from 143.8 to 245.6 mm, and the mean minimum monthly precipitation from 12.7 to 16.4 mm. Both paleovegetation and paleoclimate of the three localities are compared with the modern data at each location. The present study suggests a MAT decrease accompanied by a doubling of the MAP in the Longling area between the Late Pliocene and the present. This seems to be related to the uplift of Gaoligong Mountain in Longling which is now part of the eastern portion (Western Yunnan) of the Tibetan Plateau.     

The household production function approach to valuing climate: the case of Japan

According to household production function theory households combine marketed goods and nonmarket environmental goods to produce service flows of direct value to the household. This readily explains why, as an input to household production activities, households might have preferences over the climate. Using techniques more frequently employed to account for differences in the demographic composition of households we use household production function theory to estimate climate equivalence scales using household expenditure data drawn from 51 Japanese cities over the period 2000–2009. Our results indicate that warmer temperatures result in a small but statistically highly significant reduction in the cost of living. Combining these estimates with climate change scenarios associated with the IPCC A2, A1B, and B1 emissions scenarios other things being equal points to a slight reduction in Japanese households’ cost of living.