Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Production of biosurfactant by Nocardia otitidiscaviarum and its role in biodegradation of crude oil

Nocardia otitidiscaviarum microbial type cultural collection 6471 isolated from oil contaminated Alang India seawater was examined for production of surface active compound. Isolate shows halos and α-heamolysis on cetyl trimethyl ammonium bromide and blood agar respectively indicating the production of biosurfactant. Biosurfactant was extracted by precipitation and was partially purified. Partially purified product was characterized by thin layer chromatography and Infra-red spectroscopy and was identified as glycolipid. Sugar present in glycolipid was rhamnose and hence, biosurfactant was quantified as rhamnose equivalent. Role of cell-surface hydrophobicity and emulsification activity in correlation with biosurfactant production was examined. Correlation between biosurfactant production, growth and crude oil degradation was also examined and showed positive correlation at significant level 0.001 and 0.01 respectively. Thus, this is a first report on a marine strain of Nocardia otitidiscaviarum microbial type culture collection 6471, which can be a potential candidate for restoration of oil contaminated marine environment.     

Analysis of photosynthetic picoeukaryote community structure along an extended Ellett Line transect in the northern North Atlantic reveals a dominance of novel prymnesiophyte and prasinophyte phylotypes

Photosynthetic picoeukaryotes (PPEs) of a size <3 ??m can contribute significantly to primary production. Here, PPE community structure was analysed along an extended Ellett Line transect, an area in the North Atlantic well studied by physical oceanographers but largely neglected in the field of microalgal ecology. Distribution patterns of specific PPE classes were determined using dot-blot hybridization analysis, while the taxonomic composition of specific PPE classes was revealed by phylogenetic analysis of plastid 16S rRNA gene sequences. In addition, we performed fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of seawater samples collected along the transect to provide a PCR-independent survey of class level PPE distribution patterns. We found the PPE community was dominated by members of the Prymnesiophyceae, Prasinophyceae and Mamiellophyceae. Interestingly, phylogenetic analysis revealed several novel Prymnesiophyceae and Prasinophyceae phylotypes (with only 85-96% identity to neighbouring sequences) within lineages for which cultured counterparts are unknown.     

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of ‘high-level marine objectives’ which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.     

TAOS – The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey

The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey (TAOS) seeks to determine the number and size spectrum for small (∼3 km) bodies in the Kuiper Belt. This will be accomplished by searching for the brief occultations of bright stars (R ∼ 14) by these objects. We have designed and built a special purpose photometric monitoring system for this purpose. TAOS comprises four 50 cm telescopes, each equipped with a 2048 × 2048 pixel CCD camera, in a compact array located in the central highlands of Taiwan. TAOS will monitor up to 2 000 stars at 5 Hz. The system went into scientific operation in the autumn of 2005. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Origin of fluids in iron oxide–copper–gold deposits: constraints from δ 37Cl, 87Sr/86Sri and Cl/Br

The origin of the hypersaline fluids (magmatic or basinal brine?), associated with iron oxide (Cu–U–Au–REE) deposits, is controversial. We report the first chlorine and strontium isotope data combined with Cl/Br ratios of fluid inclusions from selected iron oxide–copper–gold (IOCG) deposits (Candelaria, Raúl–Condestable, Sossego), a deposit considered to represent a magmatic end member of the IOCG class of deposit (Gameleira), and a magnetite–apatite deposit (El Romeral) from South America. Our data indicate mixing of a high δ ³⁷Cl magmatic fluid with near 0‰ δ ³⁷Cl basinal brines in the Candelaria, Raúl–Condestable, and Sossego IOCG deposits and leaching of a few weight percent of evaporites by magmatic-hydrothermal (?) fluids at Gameleira and El Romeral. The Sr isotopic composition of the inclusion fluids of Candelaria, Raúl–Condestable, and El Romeral confirms the presence of a non-magmatic fluid component in these deposits. The heavy chlorine isotope signatures of fluids from the IOCG deposits (Candelaria, Raúl–Condestable, Sossego), reflecting the magmatic-hydrothermal component of these fluids, contrast with the near 0‰ δ ³⁷Cl values of porphyry copper fluids known from the literature. The heavy chlorine isotope compositions of fluids of the investigated IOCG deposits may indicate a prevailing mantle Cl component in contrast to porphyry copper fluids, an argument also supported by Os isotopes, or could result from differential Cl isotope fractionation processes (e.g. phase separation) in fluids of IOCG and porphyry Cu deposits.     

Eccentric geomagnetic dipole drift

A recalculation of the rate of westward drift of the eccentric geomagnetic dipole since 1900 has confirmed its correlation with irregularities in the excess length-of-day (LOD) as originally reported by Vestine. The major changes in the LOD curve since 1900 are shown to be well correlated with the westward drift rate from a number of magnetic models covering the interval. A new Magsat model of secular variation for 1980.0 shows no increase in the drift rate which dropped by a factor of three in the interval 1965–1970.     

It’s Time To Learn About Learning: Where Should the Environmental and Natural Resource Governance Field Go Next?

This Commentary reflects on the state of the scholarship on learning for environmental and natural resource policy and governance. How have we been learning about learning? We highlight theoretical and empirical advancements related to learning, as well as areas of divergence between learning theories and frameworks, and underdeveloped knowledge around processes and outcomes. To address these limitations and improve progress in both theory and practice, we offer recommendations for learning scholarship by focusing on how to collectively engage in ‘learning about learning’.     

Application of numerical modelling to a case of compaction-driven dolomitization: a Jurassic palaeohigh in the Po Plain, Italy

Dolomitization of a carbonate platform can occur at different times and in different diagenetic environments, from synsedimentary to deep burial settings. Numerical simulations are valuable tools to test and select the model that, among different hypotheses compatible with field and geochemical data, best honour mass balance, kinetic and thermodynamic constraints. Moreover, the simulation can predict the distribution of the dolomitized bodies in the subsurface and evaluate porosity changes; valuable information for the oil industry. This study is the first attempt to reproduce and investigate the compaction dolomitization model. The diagenetic study of the Jurassic carbonate basin and palaeohigh system of the Po Plain indicates that the carbonates of the palaeohighs were dolomitized by basin compaction fluids. The main goal of the simulations is to evaluate the origin and evolution of the dolomitizing fluids and to provide insights regarding the distribution of the potential reservoir‐dolomitized bodies in the Po Plain. The modelling process is subdivided into two steps: basin modelling and reactive transport modelling. The SEBE3 basin simulator (Eni proprietary) was used to create a three‐dimensional model of the compacting system. The results include compaction fluid flow rate from the basin to the palaeohigh, compaction duration and a determination of the total amount of fluid introduced into the palaeohigh. These data are then used to perform reactive transport modelling with the TOUGHREACT code. Sensitivities on dolomite kinetic parameters suggest that dolomitization was an efficient process even at low temperatures, with differences mainly related to the dynamics of the process. Fluid composition is one of the main constraints, the sea water derived compaction fluid is proven to be efficient for dolomitization due to its relatively high Mg content. Simulations also confirmed that permeability is the most important factor influencing fluid flow and, consequently, the dolomite distribution in the formation. Permeable fractured zones have a strong influence, diverting the dolomitizing fluids from their normal path towards overlying or lateral zones. Moreover, the simulations showed that, after dolomite replacement is complete, the dolomitizing fluids can precipitate dolomite cement, causing over‐dolomitization, with related localized plugging effects in the zone of influx. Mass balance calculations indicate that in the dolomitization compaction model, the amount of compaction water fluxed from the basin to the carbonate is the main constraint on dolomitization efficiency. This observation implies that the ratio between the volume of the basin undergoing compaction and the volume of the palaeohigh is a limiting factor on the final size of the dolomitized bodies. An isolated palaeohigh could be an ideal site for pervasive replacement dolomitization due to the large volume of compaction fluids available compared with the carbonate rock volume. In the case of large platforms, the more permeable margin lithofacies are the most likely sites for compaction model dolomitization. The combined use of a basin simulator and reactive transport modelling has proved to be a successful method to verify model reliability and it provides insights into the volumetric distribution of diagenetic products.