A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

Nearshore suspended sediment variations,central Surinam coast

Nearshore suspended sediment concentration along the muddy Surinam coast is highly variable; maximum values are many times greater than on other muddy coasts. Water samples taken at four field stations during various stages of the tide range in concentration from 15 to 3,700 mg/l near the surface and from 100 to 30,000 mg/l near the bottom. Highest overall concentrations and greatest variability in concentration occur in water over large banks of fluid mud (thixotropic gel) that extend 2–3 km offshore and 5–10 km along-shore. On both the intertidal and subaqueous portions of these mudbanks highest concentrations are found at low tide. Results provide evidence that an exchange between fluid mud and suspended sediment takes place during each tidal cycle.     

Quaternary evolution of Cedar Creek alluvial fan, montana

Cedar Creek alluvial fan is a textbook example of an alluvial fan because of its fan shape with smooth, concentric contours and excellent symmetry. Similar planimetric shapes have been used to infer uniform fan deposition; however, Cedar Creek alluvial fan is composed of four fan deposits of Quaternary age, Qf1 (oldest) to Qf4 (youngest), indicating that fan deposition was nonuniform in both time and space. Field studies indicate that deposition of Cedar Creek alluvial fan is related to glaciofluvial outwash activity during the Pleistocene and upper-fan entrenchment and lower-fan deposition during the Holocene.Qf1 and Qf2 deposits are sub-horizontally bedded, clast-supported sandy gravels uniformly imbricated upfan. Comparison of soil profiles developed in these deposits to radiogenically-dated chronosequences within the region indicates that Qf1 and Qf2 are correlative with Bull Lake and Pinedale-age deposits, respectively. These relationships are substantiated by physical correlation of Qf1 and Qf2 with Bull Lake and Pinedale moraines, respectively, in the Cedar Creek drainage basin. The sedimentology and timing of Qf1 and Qf2 indicate deposition in high-energy, proglacial, braided streams. Furthermore, the present morphology of Cedar Creek alluvial fan was established largely during aggradation of Qf1 and Qf2 when sediment supply to the fan was sufficient to activate 60% to greater than 90% of the total fan area. During Bull Lake glaciation, the apex of Qf1 deposition formed the apex of Cedar Creek alluvial fan as Qf1 covered more than 90% of the present fan area. During Pinedale glaciation, Qf2 deposition shifted downfan; Qf2 is inset into Qf1 above the intersection point, but below the intersection point it eroded and/or buried Qf1 as it activated as much as 60% of the fan area.Qf3 and Qf4, comprising 21% of the fan area, are inset into Qf2 in the lower fan area. Soil development in Qf3 and Qf4 deposits indicate episodic deposition and entrenchment beginning in early Holocene and continuing to present. A post-glacial decrease in sediment supply to Cedar Creek alluvial fan is indicated by sediment storage within the Cedar Creek drainage basin. Decreased sediment supply to the fan resulted in upper-fan entrenchment of Qf2 and deposition of Qf3 and Qf4 in the lower-fan area.     

Laboratory simulation of the salt weathering of schist: II. Fragmentation of fine schist particles

Recent developments in long term landform evolution modelling have created a new demand for quantitative salt weathering data, and in particular data describing the size distribution of the weathered rock fragments. To enable future development of rock breakdown models for use in landscape evolution and soil production models, laboratory work was undertaken to extend existing schist/salt weathering fragmentation studies to include an examination of the breakdown of sub‐millimetre quartz chlorite schist particles in a seasonally wet tropical climate. Laser particle sizing was used to assess the impact of different experimental procedures on the resulting particle size distribution. The results reveal that salt weathering under a range of realistic simulated tropical wet season conditions produces a significant degree of schist particle breakdown. The fragmentation of the schist is characterized by splitting of the larger fragments into mid‐sized product with finer material produced, possibly from the breakdown of mid‐sized fragments when weathering is more advanced. Salinity, the salt addition method and temperature were all found to affect weathering rates. Subtle differences in mineralogy also produce variations in weathering patterns and rates. It is also shown that an increase in drying temperature leads to accelerated weathering rates, however, the geometry of the fracture process is not significantly affected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?

The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO₂ are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.     

Oil and Dispersants in Canadian Seas—Recommendations from a Research Appraisal

A Canadian multi-authored appraisal of research on oil and dispersants has been completed recently. It resulted in a number of recommendations concerning research on oil spills, on relevant physical-chemical factors, effects of chemically dispersed oil on marine organisms, and strategies to minimize effects of oil spills in northern marine waters.     

An equable glaciopluvial in the West: Pleniglacial evidence of increased precipitation on a gradient from the Great Basin to the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts

Dated macrofossil evidence documents the widespread occurrence of woodland in what are now desert lowlands of southwestern North America from the last pleniglacial (ca. 20,000 yr B.P.) to late glacial/Holocene transition (12,000–8000 yr B.P.). The composition of the Pleistocene woodlands indicates that they had already differentiated geographically in modern form, though immensely more extensive than today. The pinyon-juniper woodland (Pinus monophylla, Juniperus osteosperma) of the Mohave Desert province had not yet penetrated the central Great Basin, but extended from southern Nevada south through the vast lowlands of the Mohave and westernmost Sonoran Deserts to southeastern California and Baja California. The strongly xerophytic Mohavean woodland was characterized by a very well-marked altitudinal and latitudinal zonation with juniper-Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) sorting out below pinyon-juniper woodland, and with live oaks restricted to the upper level along the lower Colorado River drainage. Southeastward, the Sonoran Desert province was similarly zoned, but with the more slender-leaved Pinus edulis var. fallax as pinyon and with more live oaks in the upper zone. However, the pleniglacial woodland of the Chihuahuan Desert province was almost unzoned, inasmuch as the less xerophytic species of pinyon and live oaks prevailed over the entire span of available elevation; the pinyon was the very slender-leaved P. cembroides var. remota.The overall paleozonation indicates a strong northwest-to-southeast gradient of increasing summer rain with decreasing distance from the monsoonal source area over the Gulf of Mexico, as at present, but augmented pluvially along the same gradient. A key piece of evidence is the counterintuitive latitudinal-zonational anomaly between about 30 and 40° N in southwestern North America; the lower limits of modern vegetational zones are depressed with decreasing latitude (e.g., ca. 500 m lower at 34° than at 36° N). The axis of the gradient actually extends from northwest to southeast, paralleling the monsoonal gradient of increasing summer rain, which no doubt causes the apparent anomaly. During the Wisconsinan glacial, the latitudinal anomaly was greatly steepened, a fact requiring a pluvial increase in precipitation over the Southwest. The monsoonalpluvial pattern is supported by the Neotoma record of a northwest-to-southeast gradient of increasing diversity of evergreen oaks requiring summer rain, and by a parallel segregation of pinyon species. Equability of seasons during the last glacial is also suggested by the Neotoma macrofossil data.     

Review of Doppler satellite positioning in Canada

Canada has recently faced two geodetic problems. Existing control on land must be rapidly upraged for resource development and for the coming redefinition of North American networks. Geodetic methods of managing territorial and lease boundaries in the offshore region are required. A series of developments in Doppler Satellite techniques begun in 1968 have contributed to the solution of both these problems. Today these developments have resulted in a Canadian-made receiver, permanent Canadian tracking stations, a primary geodetic network of about 200 Doppler points, major Doppler processing software systems, and the routine use of Doppler points, major Doppler processing software systems, and the routine use of Doppler positioning for land surveying, drill rig positioning and precise navigation. The accuracy of Doppler positioning has been improved from 100 m in 1968 to better than 1 m in 1975. These developments have applications in other nations than Canada.     

Swift ultraviolet photometry of the Deep Impact encounter with Comet 9P/Tempel 1

We report time-resolved imaging UV photometry of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 during the interval 2005 June 29-2005 July 21, including intensive coverage of the collision with the Deep Impact probe and its immediate aftermath. The nuclear flux of the comet begins to rise within minutes of the collision, and peaks about 3 h after impact. There is no evidence for a prompt flash at the time of impact. The comet exhibits a significant re-brightening about 40 h after the initial outburst, consistent with the rotation period of the comet, with evidence for further periodic re-brightenings on subsequent rotations. Modelling of the brightness profile of the coma as a function of time suggests two distinct velocity systems in the ejecta, at de-projected expansion speeds of 190 and 550 m/s, which we suggest are due to dust and gas, respectively. There is a distinct asymmetry in the slower-moving (dust) component as a function of position angle on the sky. This is confirmed by direct imaging analysis, which reveals an expanding plume of material concentrated in the impact hemisphere. The projected expansion velocity of the leading edge of this plume, measured directly from the imaging data, is 190 m/s, consistent with the velocity of the dust component determined from the photometric analysis. From our data we determine that a total of (1.4±0.2)×¹⁰³² water molecules were ejected in the impact, together with a total scattering area of dust at 300 nm of 190±20 km².