Explosive felsic volcanism on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands consist of seven basaltic shield volcanoes whose submerged portion is much more voluminous than the subaerial part of each island. Like so many other volcanic oceanic islands, the indicative deposits of explosive felsic volcanism are not a common feature on the Canary archipelago. Hitherto, they have only been documented from the central islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife, which are the largest volcanic complexes of the islands. On the other Canary Islands, the presence of felsic rocks is mostly restricted to intrusions and a few lava flows, generally within the succession in the oldest parts of individual islands. In this paper, we present a detailed stratigraphic, lithological and sedimentological study of a significant felsic pumice deposit on the island of El Hierro, referred here as the Malpaso Member, which represents the only explosive episode of felsic volcanism found on the Canary Islands (outside of Gran Canaria and Tenerife). The products of the eruption indicate a single eruptive event and cover an area of about 15 km². This work provides a detailed stratigraphic and chronological framework for El Hierro, and four subunits are identified within the member on the basis of lithological and granulometric characteristics. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of an explosive eruption in a setting where the activity is typified by effusive basaltic events. Given the style and the spatial distribution of the Malpaso eruption and its products, a future event with similar characteristics could have a serious impact on the population, infrastructure and economy of the island of El Hierro.     

Bayesian inversion of time‐lapse seismic data for the estimation of static reservoir properties and dynamic property changes

Seismic conditioning of static reservoir model properties such as porosity and lithology has traditionally been faced as a solution of an inverse problem. Dynamic reservoir model properties have been constrained by time‐lapse seismic data. Here, we propose a methodology to jointly estimate rock properties (such as porosity) and dynamic property changes (such as pressure and saturation changes) from time‐lapse seismic data. The methodology is based on a full Bayesian approach to seismic inversion and can be divided into two steps. First we estimate the conditional probability of elastic properties and their relative changes; then we estimate the posterior probability of rock properties and dynamic property changes. We apply the proposed methodology to a synthetic reservoir study where we have created a synthetic seismic survey for a real dynamic reservoir model including pre‐production and production scenarios. The final result is a set of point‐wise probability distributions that allow us to predict the most probable reservoir models at each time step and to evaluate the associated uncertainty. Finally we also show an application to real field data from the Norwegian Sea, where we estimate changes in gas saturation and pressure from time‐lapse seismic amplitude differences. The inverted results show the hydrocarbon displacement at the times of two repeated seismic surveys.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Drought regulates the burned forest areas in Mexico: the case of 2011, a record year

During 2011, Mexico experienced record figures in terms of forest fires, with an affected area of 956,405 ha, and an association between this activity and the meteorological conditions is suspected. We addressed the question: Are the burned areas in Mexico associated with the duration and accumulation of drought? Using the G statistic, the cluster zones of burned areas in Mexico in 2011 were analyzed, and the value of accumulated drought that was most related to these cluster zones was determined. Global and local regression models were used to evaluate the drought-burned areas association. Two cluster zones were found (zones A and B). Accumulated drought of 24 and 12 months significantly explained the burned areas of zones A and B, respectively. The burned areas of Mexico in 2011 were non-randomly distributed, and accumulated drought significantly explained the magnitude of the areas affected by fire.     

A high temperature superconductor notch filter for the Sardinia Radio Telescope

A High Temperature Superconductor filter operating in the C-band between 4200 and 5600 MHz has been developed for one of the radio astronomical receivers of the Sardinia Radio Telescope. The motivation was to attenuate an interference from a weather radar at 5640 MHz, whose power level exceeds the linear region of the first active stages of the receiver. A very sharp transition after the nominal maximum passband frequency is reached by combining a 6th order band-pass filter with a 6th order stop-band. This solution is competitive with an alternative layout based on a cascaded triplet filter. Three units of the filter have been measured with two different calibration approaches to investigate pros and cons of each, and data repeatability. The final performance figures of the filters are: ohmic losses of the order of 0.15–0.25 dB, matching better than ?15 dB, and ?30 dB attenuation at 5640 MHz. Finally, a more accurate model of the connection between external connector and microstrip shows a better agreement between simulations and experimental data.     

Systematically variable geometry and architecture of incised-valley fills controlled by orbital forcing: A conceptual model from the Pennsylvanian Breathitt Group (Kentucky,USA)

Incised-valley fills preserved within ancient coastal to shallow-marine successions represent important archives of environmental and sea-level change. Most current knowledge about the origin of incised valleys stems from Quaternary case studies; however, research on pre-Quaternary examples can shed light on valley formation and evolution across longer timespans. This article describes different types of incised-valley fills from Lower to Middle Pennsylvanian fluvio-deltaic successions of the Breathitt Group (eastern Kentucky), accumulated in the Central Appalachian Foreland under prevalent glacioeustatic forcing driven by Gondwanan glaciations. Based on well-established criteria for their recognition, numerous incised-valley fills were identified from outcrop and subsurface data through more than 300 m of clastic successions consisting of fourth-order stratigraphic sequences stacked into third-order composite sequences. Incised-valley fills were categorized into three archetypes based on lateral extent and aspect ratio (relatively wide versus narrow valley fills), nature of infill (fully continental versus mixed marine and continental facies associations) and relationships to underlying coal zones (truncating versus non-truncating). The systematic occurrence of each incised-valley fill type at specific stratigraphic positions within every third-order sequence suggests control by a periodic allogenic factor. Valley-fill archetypes are interpreted in terms of variable accommodation-supply ratios driven by variable duration of formative base-level cycles. For example, relatively wide incised-valley fills with alluvial infill evolved during long-lived cycles whose prolonged base-level drawdown maintained low accommodation/supply ratios. Deeper valleys with low aspect ratios and mixed marine-continental infills were generated by short-lived base-level drawdown that forced higher accommodation/supply ratios. Available chronological data for the studied successions consent to estimate base-level cycles spanning 10^4–5 years that were likely modulated by interference patterns of orbital parameters (obliquity and eccentricity) via global climate and glacioeustatic fluctuations. This conceptual model, relating incised-valley fill morphometry and internal architecture to orbital forcing patterns, provides a possible approach to predicting and interpreting incised-valley fill variability through successions accumulated during icehouse conditions.     

The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes

Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km² to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.     

Correction: Geostatistical Rock Physics Inversion for Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Porosity and Saturation in the Critical Zone

Mathematical Geosciences -     

The 1511 Eastern Alps earthquakes: a critical update and comparison of existing macroseismic datasets

Three earthquakes condition the seismic hazard estimates of the Eastern Alps: the 1348 “Villach”, the 1511 “Idrija”, and the 1976 Gemona events. Only the last one can be well documented, while doubts remain for location and size of the other two. New documents have been found about the 1511 quake that, together with a complete revision of the information already available, offer some new indications on the location and size of the event.