Forward logistic regression for earth-flow landslide susceptibility assessment in the Platani river basin (southern Sicily,Italy)

Forward logistic regression has allowed us to derive an earth-flow susceptibility model for the Tumarrano river basin, which was defined by modeling the statistical relationships between an archive of 760 events and a set of 20 predictors. For each landslide in the inventory, a landslide identification point (LIP) was automatically produced as corresponding to the highest point along the boundary of the landslide polygons, and unstable conditions were assigned to cells at a distance up to 8 m. An equal number of stable cells (out of landslides) was then randomly extracted and appended to the LIPs to prepare the dataset for logistic regression. A model building strategy was applied to enlarge the area included in training the model and to verify the sensitivity of the regressed models with respect to the locations of the selected stable cells. A suite of 16 models was prepared by randomly extracting different unoverlapping stable cell subsets that have been appended to the unstable ones. Models were finally submitted to forward logistic regression and validated. The results showed satisfying and stable error rates (0.236 on average, with a standard deviation of 0.007) and areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) (0.839 for training and 0.817 for test datasets) as well as factor selections (ranks and coefficients). As regards the predictors, steepness and large-profile and local-plan topographic curvatures were systematically selected. Clayey outcropping lithology, midslope drainage, local and midslope ridges, and canyon landforms were also very frequently (from eight to 15 times) included in the models by the forward selection procedures. The model-building strategy allowed us to produce a performing earth-flow susceptibility model, whose model fitting, prediction skill, and robustness were estimated on the basis of validation procedures, demonstrating the independence of the regressed model on the specific selection of the stable cells.     

Evidence for common breakup events of the acapulcoites‐lodranites and chondrites

Abstract— Acapulcoites and lodranites are believed to originate on a common parent body and to represent some of the earliest events in the differentiation of the chondritic asteroids. We have conducted isotopic studies of the noble gases He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe, and determinations of the concentrations of the major elements and of the radionuclides ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and ³⁶Cl in an attempt to constrain the cosmic‐ray exposure history of two members of the acapulcoite‐lodranite clan recovered in Antarctica: Frontier Mountain (FRO) 95029 and Graves Nunataks (GRA) 95209. From cosmic‐ray‐produced ³He, ²¹Ne, and ³⁸Ar and appropriate production rates, we derive parent‐body breakup times of 4.59 ± 0.60 and 6.82 ± 0.60 Ma for FOR 95029 and GRA 95209, respectively. These times are consistent with those obtained from the pairs ¹⁰Be‐²¹Ne and ²⁶Al‐²¹Ne; whereas the times inferred from the pair ³⁶Cl‐³⁶Ar are slightly longer, perhaps because the ³⁶Cl activities decreased as a result of decay on Earth. Terrestrial ages up to ～50 ka for the two meteorites are consistent with the measured ³⁶Cl activities of the metal phases. All acapulcoites and lodranites dated until now show cosmic‐ray exposure ages in the range of 4–10 Ma. This is the same range as that found for the major exposure age cluster of the H chondrites. As a common parent body is improbable on the basis of the O‐isotopic systematics, a common set of impactors might have affected the asteroid belt 4–10 Ma ago.     

Flood Events of Selected European Rivers in the Sixteenth Century

The severity and frequency of sixteenth-century floods of the Rhine, the Main, the middle and upper Elbe with its tributaries, rivers of northern and central Italy, the Garonne and rivers in Catalonia and Andalusia are analyzed using documentary evidence. The basic topographical and hydrological characteristics of the rivers investigated as well as the synoptic causes of their flooding during the instrumental period are presented. Different examples of modifications of the run-off process due to anthropogenic activity are discussed. Prevalence in flood occurrence during the second half of the sixteenth century in comparison to the first half is typical for central European and Andalusian rivers (mainly in the 1560s and 1590s) and agrees with the evolution of precipitation patterns. On the other hand, Italian and Catalonian rivers, in part, had a higher occurrence of floods during the first half of the century. Changes in the flooding seasons in both halves of the century are not unambiguous. Results of an analysis on a broader European scale show floods to be a random natural phenomena with limited areal extent defined by the spatial influence of forcing meteorological factors (continuous heavy rains, sudden melting of thick snow cover, etc.). Despite some limitations of documentary evidence, series of reconstructed historical floods are valuable sources of proxy data which can be utilized for the study of the flooding fluctuations in the pre-instrumental period.     

Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings exposed to slow-moving landslides at medium and large scales

Slow-moving landslides yearly induce huge economic losses worldwide in terms of damage to facilities and interruption of human activities. Within the landslide risk management framework, the consequence analysis is a key step entailing procedures mainly based on identifying and quantifying the exposed elements, defining an intensity criterion and assessing the expected losses. This paper presents a two-scale (medium and large) procedure for vulnerability assessment of buildings located in areas affected by slow-moving landslides. Their intensity derives from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) satellite data analysis, which in the last decade proved to be capable of providing cost-effective long-term displacement archives. The analyses carried out on two study areas of southern Italy (one per each of the addressed scales) lead to the generation, as an absolute novelty, of both empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. These curves, once further validated, can be valuably used as tools for consequence forecasting purposes and, more in general, for planning the most suitable slow-moving landslide risk mitigation strategies.     

Temperature observations in Bologna,Italy, from 1715 to 1815: a comparison with other contemporary series and an overview of three centuries of changing climate

The observations taken in Bologna, Italy, from 1715 to 1815, three times a day, with a number of thermometers (i.e., Stancari air thermometers, Little Florentine thermometer, Florentine stick thermometer and a number of Réaumur spirit and mercury thermometers) some of them operating in parallel, have been recovered and analysed. The early thermometers had unknown scales and temperature units, with deviations due to the bulb shape or the thermometric liquid, but it is possible to interpret them after comparison between parallel readings. Historical sources and the analysis of the data fingerprints and their variability permit recognition of where instruments were located and who the observers were. It is also possible to relate the indoor climate of historical buildings to the outdoor one, and transform indoor readings as they were taken outdoors, expressed in Celsius. The Bologna series has been compared with the contemporary observations in Padua, Venice and Milano. The climate analysis shows that the temperature fluctuated but with an increasing trend. The 1730–1770 decades constituted the coldest period and 1980—today the warmest one. The eighteenth century was generally cold and had an impressive frequency of extremely severe winters that exceeded the rest of the series. The whole dataset (i.e. 1715–2015) of daily temperatures has been included to allow further use for scientific purposes. Finally, the paper provides a methodological example of procedures to recover and analyse early instrumental series.     

Reconnaissance geology in Upper Chitral,Baroghil and Karambar districts (northern Karakorum,Pakistan)

During the summer of 1992 a geological expedition crossed the northern Karakorum range in northern Pakistan, from the Chitral to Karambar valleys, from the villages of Mastuj to Imit. Some of the areas visited were geologically unknown. A number of structural units were crossed, belonging to the Karakorum block or to other crustal blocks north of it. They are: (a) the axial batholith, in which three plutonic bodies have been identified, and (b) the northern sedimentary belt (NSB), in which three major tectonostratigraphic units form thrust stacks dipping to the north. Their internal stratigraphy and structural style are partly different. The most complete contains a crystalline basement, transgressed by a marine succession during the Early Ordovician. The youngest strata are represented by the Reshun conglomerate, of inferred Cretaceous age. The northernmost unit of the NSB is tightly folded, whereas the central one forms a monocline. Vertical faults, mainly strike-slip, dissect the thrusted slabs. Metamorphic deformation is absent or reaches only the anchizone in the studied sector of the Karakorum NSB. To the north of the Karakorum proper there are several other tectonic units, separated by vertical faults. They are, from south to north: (a) the Taš Kupruk zone, with metavolcanics of basaltic to latibasaltic composition; (b) the Atark unit, mostly consisting of massive carbonate rocks of Mesozoic age; and (c) the Wakhan slates which consist of a thick widespread succession of dark slates, metasiltites and sandstones. The fine-grained elastic rocks are supposed to be Palaeozoic to Early Triassic in age. The Wakhan slates are intruded by plutons belonging to the East Hindu Kush batholith, from which a single K/Ar age on muscovite gave a Jurassic age.     

Using beryllium-7 to evaluate soil erosion processes in agricultural lands in semiarid regions of Central Argentina

This work presents the results of a soil erosion study using the ⁷Be technique. This technique estimates the water erosion/deposition from the comparison between ⁷Be soil content of a reference site and an eroded or sedimented site. The soil samples were collected from an agricultural area of the semiarid region of Argentina near San Luis City, which has a marked rainfall season. The area has been used for crop cultivation, being subjected to plowing practices. The ⁷Be in the Reference Site was in the first centimeter of soil, showing the typical exponential decreasing of ⁷Be soil content with depth, with the ⁷Be inventories value being 340?±?50 Bq m^?2 for the dry season and 571?±?48 Bq m^?2 for the rainy season. The ⁷Be technique was applied to a potential eroded site subjected to traditional tillage practices (plowing). A net soil erosion value of 13.5 t ha^?1 (1.35 kg m^?2) was obtained. From the assumptions of the applied technique, we can draw the inference that this erosion was caused by rains produced in the month prior to the date of soil sampling.     

Impact of the clouds of volcanic aerosols in Italy during the last 7 centuries

Intense natural pollution has occurred in the past in Italy corresponding to intense volcanic activity, which appears to have diminished somewhat in recent times. Between 1500 and 1900, Etna, Vesuvius, Vulcano and Stromboli, plus volcanoes outside Italy were very active and there are numerous, well documented episodes of atmospheric acidification which caused widespread damage, especially to the vegetation. Other than the acid rains, volcanic emissions also caused so calleddry fogs which consist of a more or less dense mist composed of foul smelling gases and aerosols, characterized by a reddish color, that could appear and persist when the relative humidity was low as shown by measurements taken on such occasions. This phenomenon appeared most frequently at the beginning of the hot season. In fact, volcanic clouds of gases and aerosols formed especially when the Tyrrhenian sea water was relatively cold giving rise to very stable atmospheric conditions locally and the summer anticyclone meant that the winds were calm. Under such conditions the emissions of Stromboli and Vulcano, especially those emitted at low levels, remained entrapped in the stable layer, which were then transported towards the land reaching Northern Italy at a distance on the order of 10³ km. Thedry fogs could persist for days or weeks. Harvests were seriously damaged and frequently the crops were subsequently attacked by parasites. The leaves of the vegetation became discoloured with numerous punctiform lesions or gangrene at the edges of the leaves. The phenomenon was so frequent that, in texts on agricultural meteorology of the 1800s, a distinction was made between the causticdry fogs which damaged the vegetation anddamp fogs which instead were good for it. The most important episode occurred in 1783 due to the activity of Laki Grímsvötn (Iceland) with the contribution of Italian volcanoes. This dry fog lasted many months and affected the greater part of the northern hemisphere including Europe and Asia, harming people, animals and vegetation. Apart from paroxysmal cases, from the 1300s up to today, some tens ofdry fogs have been noted, all of which have been sufficiently well documented. The frequency of these events culminated between the middle of the 1700s and the middle of the 1800s. There is reason to believe that this well documented phenomenon of the past, with sufficient volcanic activity, could recur on the meso and large scale; with present day activity the emissions continue to cause damage to vegetation, both in the Aspromonte mountains (Calabria, Southem Italy) as well as in other parts of Italy.     

The antiquity indicator argon‐40/argon‐36 for lunar surface samples calibrated by uranium‐235‐xenon‐136 dating

Abstract— Several solar gas rich lunar soils and breccias have trapped ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios >10, although solar Ar is expected to yield a ratio of <0.01. Radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar produced in the lunar crust from ⁴⁰K decay was outgassed into the lunar atmosphere, ionized, accelerated in the electromagnetic field of the solar wind, and reimplanted into lunar surface material. The ⁴⁰Ar loss rate depends on the decreasing abundance of ⁴⁰K. In order to calibrate the time dependence of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratio in lunar surface material, the period of reimplantation of lunar atmospheric ions and of solar wind Ar was determined using the ²³⁵U‐¹³⁶Xe dating method that relies on secondary cosmic‐ray neutron‐induced fission of ²³⁵U. We identified the trapped, fissiogenic, and cosmogenic noble gases in lunar breccia 14307 and lunar soils 70001‐8, 70181, 74261, and 75081. Uranium and Th concentrations were determined in the 74261 soil for which we obtain the ²³⁵U‐¹³⁶Xe time of implantation of 3.25^+0.38_‐0.60 Ga ago. On the basis of several cosmogenic noble gas signatures we calculate the duration of this near surface exposure of 393 ± 45 Ma and an average shielding depth below the lunar surface of 73 ± 7 g/cm². A second, recent exposure to solar and cosmic‐ray particles occurred after this soil was excavated from Shorty crater 17.2 ± 1.4 Ma ago. Using a compilation of all lunar data with reliable trapped Ar isotopic ratios and pre‐exposure times we infer a calibration curve of implantation times, based on the trapped⁴⁰ Ar/³⁶Ar ratio. A possible trend for the increase with time of the solar ³He/⁴He and ²⁰Ne/²²Ne ratios of about 12%/Ga and about 2%/Ga, respectively, is also discussed.