基于最小二乘支持向量机的城市桥梁震害预测模型研究

针对地震中城市桥梁震害状态具有较强的非线性、复杂性的特点,采用了具有RBF核函数的最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)算法。在大量收集我国地震中城市桥梁震害资料的基础上,将此算法引入桥梁的震害预测中,选取了地震烈度、上部结构、地基失效程度、支座类型、墩台高度、桥梁跨数和场地类别等因素作为模型的特征输入向量,建立了最小二乘支持向量机的桥梁震害预测模型。通过反复地样本训练及模型参数设置,仿真结果表明,该方法具有一定的准确度和可行性。基于最小二乘支持向量机的桥梁震害预测方法是一种可以用于地震中桥梁震害预测的良好方法。     

利用255m铁塔研究城市化对地面粗糙度的影响

利用天津255m气象塔近10年观测资料,采用风速梯度资料拟合对数风速廓线的方法,定量计算天津255m气象塔空气动力学粗糙度随下垫面的改变情况.结果表明各方位的粗糙度存在明显差异,偏北方向的粗糙度大于偏南方向,但各方位粗糙度在总体是逐年递增趋势,个别年代减小与城市改造有关,粗糙度与城市建筑群高度之间存在线性关系.同时利用冬季风廓线资料研究城市化对边界层风场结构的影响:结果表明受下垫面影响近地面风向逐年趋于紊乱,平均风速呈逐年递减趋势,十年间城市冠层厚度增加10m,2005年城市冠层厚度在40～60m之间.     

南海西北次海盆物源供给模式及油气勘探前景

基于地震资料,从物源供给模式入手,分析南海北部深水区西北次海盆的沉积层序、物源特征及其油气勘探前景。其物源供给具有相对多期多物源体系特征,初始扩张期沉积中心位于盆地北部边缘,北部陆架-陆坡物源体系作用显著;初始热沉降期,沉积中心开始从盆地边缘向中央转移,北部陆架-陆坡、中-西沙隆起区物源体系具有大规模物源供给,在盆地两侧斜坡坡脚对称发育大量具有下超反射特征的裙积扇以及具有杂乱反射特征的块体搬运沉积体;稳定热沉降期,沉积中心转移至盆地中央,北部陆架-陆坡、西沙海槽物源体系作用存在短期明显加强,中-西沙隆起区物源体系逐渐削弱,盆地内发育大规模深水扇及深水水道。与相邻中-高勘探程度区相比,显示出良好的勘探潜力。     

青藏高原北部风火山活动断裂系及工程危害性研究

风火山活动断裂系由风山北麓活动断裂、风火山活动断理解、二道沟活动断裂、二道沟南活动断裂所组成，其中发育不同方向、不同规模、不同性质的活动断层。风火山北麓F24断层自22100a以来平均左旋走滑运动速度为4.07mm/a，二道沟F26－4断层自16300a以来平均左旋走滑运动速度为1.10mm/a，二道沟南F27，F27－1，F27－8断层在晚更新世晚期－全新世平均左旋走滑运动速度分别为3.52,2.98,0.51mm/a，断层F26－4，F27，F27－1，F27－8尚存在0.12-0.51mm/a的垂直运动速度分量。沿风火山活动断裂系发育不均匀冻胀、冰丘、构造裂缝带和地震等地质灾害，对青藏铁路、青藏公路、输油管道等线路工程具有不同程度的危害性。     

兰坪-思茅盆地勐野井组钾盐矿床成矿构造背景

兰坪—思茅盆地是国内唯一发现古钾盐沉积的盆地。对云南兰坪—思茅盆地钾盐成矿背景作了总结与分析,指出中生代以来盆地经历了陆内裂谷形成到消亡、侏罗纪箕状断陷盆地发育、早白垩纪双断式断陷盆地发育、早白垩晚期干化成盐和后期挤压走滑几个阶段。在此基础上通过盐系地层沉积特征的分析,得到了盆地在成盐期(早白垩世晚期)构造活动强烈,由统一的湖盆解体为多个次级成盐盆地,盐类资源的沉积应该分属不同的沉积序列的认识。兰坪—思茅盆地成盐期构造背景分析对于了解该区蒸发岩矿床特征和成矿机理具有重要的参考意义。     

Application of a data assimilation method via an ensemble Kalman filter to reactive urea hydrolysis transport modeling

With growing importance of water resources in the world, remediations of anthropogenic contaminations due to reactive solute transport become even more important. A good understanding of reactive rate parameters such as kinetic parameters is the key to accurately predicting reactive solute transport processes and designing corresponding remediation schemes. For modeling reactive solute transport, it is very difficult to estimate chemical reaction rate parameters due to complex processes of chemical reactions and limited available data. To find a method to get the reactive rate parameters for the reactive urea hydrolysis transport modeling and obtain more accurate prediction for the chemical concentrations, we developed a data assimilation method based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method to calibrate reactive rate parameters for modeling urea hydrolysis transport in a synthetic one-dimensional column at laboratory scale and to update modeling prediction. We applied a constrained EnKF method to pose constraints to the updated reactive rate parameters and the predicted solute concentrations based on their physical meanings after the data assimilation calibration. From the study results we concluded that we could efficiently improve the chemical reactive rate parameters with the data assimilation method via the EnKF, and at the same time we could improve solute concentration prediction. The more data we assimilated, the more accurate the reactive rate parameters and concentration prediction. The filter divergence problem was also solved in this study.     

怀来4井数字化改造概况

介绍了怀来4井地质构造概况，介绍了数字经仪器安装前的基础改造工作以及数据产出情况，初步分析了怀来4井气氡、气汞异常与地震的对应关系。该项工作不仅加深了对怀来4井数字化资料的认识，而且有助于今后地震分析预报水平的提高。     

岩体力学参数的损伤反分析优化性研究

岩体力学参数一直是困扰岩石力学和数值计算深入研究的难题,它在很大程度上决定了数值计算结果的准确性、客观性和实用性.本文在岩体损伤力学描述的基础上,提出了弹性波波速、损伤力学和反分析相结合的优化方法.     

大亚湾海域低营养盐维持高生产力的机制探讨Ⅰ

利用2000年4月大亚湾海域的现场调查数据，分析水体中各种形态氮的含量，分布、转化及其影响因素，探讨大亚湾海域低营养盐维持高生产力的原因，调查结果表明：大亚湾海域水体仍属贫氮海区，氮，磷比约为12：1，生产力水平依然受氮控制；大亚湾海域氮以溶解态的形式居多，占总氮的74．8％，颗粒态占25．2％，而溶解态中又以有机氮居多，占总氮的62．1％，孵化实验表明：（1）充氧条件下氨氮向硝氮转化，缺氧条件下硝氮向氨氮转化；（2）水体中溶解有机氮在有氧条件下可以降解转化为无机氮，这意味着占绝对优势的溶解有机氮降解转化为无机氮可能是大亚湾海域低营养盐维持高生产力的主要原因之一。     

Deduction of the horizontal gradients of the Hungarian vertical movement velocities by polynomial fitting

Recently, intensive investigations were carried out in Hungary to explore the characteristics of vertical crustal movements. In the first phase (by using repeated geodetic measurements) vertical movement velocities were mapped. In the second phase the aim was to study the movement tendencies in more detail. In the professional literature many mathematical methods are reported. Among these the method of horizontal gradients is applied quite often. In this paper the velocity function of the vertical movements is represented by polynomials and the gradient values are computed from these. To control the values calculated from the velocity functions they were compared to the observed values. The above method was applied to the whole territory of Hungary and also to four zones individually. These zones were determined on the basis of geological information. Besides a short review of the method we present the results: velocity functions, gradients and control data. The gradient vectors are also presented in graphical form.