Dripping into unsaturated rock underground excavations: model testing at the Yucca Mountain exploratory studies facility

This paper presents a probabilistic formulation of unsaturated flow through rough multi-segmented fractures, with emphasis on Dripping Initiation Time (DIT), and attempts to explain the fast flow paths detected at the Yucca Mountain (YM) Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF). Three scenarios of parameters were used to test the validity of the model with these fast flow paths. The scenarios differed in the DITs and the corresponding parameter configurations were also tested for three different stratigraphic horizon depths. Each depth represented a different location where fast flow has been detected at YM. The first depth corresponds to the Bow Ridge Fault; the second represents a network of steep fractures and cooling joints with large variability in dip; and the third location, probably connected to the Diabolous Ridge Fault, has a flow path that is low dipping. Monte Carlo simulations for each configuration and depth produced probabilistic results from nine scenarios for DITs, which are quite consistent with field observations.     

Imaging the asymmetric dust shell around CI Cam with long baseline optical interferometry

We present the first high angular resolution observation of the B[e] star/X-ray transient object CI Cam, performed with the two-telescope Infrared Optical Telescope Array (IOTA), its upgraded three-telescope version (IOTA3T) and the Palomar Testbed Interferometer (PTI). Visibilities and closure phases were obtained using the IONIC-3 integrated optics beam combiner. CI Cam was observed in the near-infrared H and K spectral bands, wavelengths well suited to measure the size and study the geometry of the hot dust surrounding CI Cam. The analysis of the visibility data over an 8 yr period from soon after the 1998 outburst to 2006 shows that the dust visibility has not changed over the years. The visibility data show that CI Cam is elongated which confirms the disc-shape of the circumstellar environment and totally rules out the hypothesis of a spherical dust shell. Closure phase measurements show direct evidence of asymmetries in the circumstellar environment of CI Cam and we conclude that the dust surrounding CI Cam lies in an inhomogeneous disc seen at an angle. The near-infrared dust emission appears as an elliptical skewed Gaussian ring with a major axis   a = 7.58 ± 0.24 mas  , an axis ratio   r = 0.39 ± 0.03  and a position angle  θ= 35°± 2°  .     

A multi-arc approach for chaotic orbit determination problems

Chaotic dynamical systems are characterized by the existence of a predictability horizon, connected to the notion of Lyapunov time, beyond which predictions of the state of the system are meaningless. In order to study the main features of orbit determination in the presence of chaos, Spoto and Milani (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 124:295–309, 2016) applied the classical least-squares fit and differential correction algorithm to determine a chaotic orbit and a dynamical parameter of a simple discrete system—Chirikov standard map (cf. Chirikov in Phys Rep 52:263, 1979)—with observations distributed beyond the predictability horizon. They found a time limit beyond which numerical calculations are affected by numerical instability: the computability horizon. In this article, we aim at pushing forward such inherent obstacle to numerical calculations in chaotic orbit determination by applying the classical and the constrained multi-arc method (cf. Alessi et al. in Mon Not R Astron Soc 423:2270–2278, 2012) to the same dynamical system. These strategies entail the determination of an orbit when observations are grouped in separate observed arcs. For each arc, a set of initial conditions is determined and, in the case of the constrained multi-arc method, all subsequent arcs are constrained to belong to the same trajectory. We show that the use of these techniques in place of the standard least-squares method has significant advantages: Not only can we perform accurate numerical calculations well beyond the computability horizon, in particular, the constrained multi-arc strategy improves considerably the determination of the dynamical parameter.     

A multidisciplinary investigation of deep-seated landslide reactivation triggered by an extreme rainfall event: a case study of the Monesi di Mendatica landslide,Ligurian Alps

Landslides - In November 2016, an extreme rainfall event affected the Ligurian Alps (NW Italy). Consequently, several landslides and debris flows occurred in the upper Tanarello stream basin. In...     

Potentially modified hydropower production under climate change in the Italian Alps

We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.     

Holocene environmental and climatic changes at Gorgo Basso,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy

We used a new sedimentary record to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history of Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in south-western Sicily (Italy). Pollen and charcoal data suggest a fire-prone open grassland near the site until ca 10,000 cal yr BP (8050 cal BC), when Pistacia shrubland expanded and fire activity declined, probably in response to increased moisture availability. Evergreen Olea europaea woods expanded ca 8400 to decline abruptly at 8200 cal yr BP, when climatic conditions became drier at other sites in the Mediterranean region. Around 7000 cal yr BP evergreen broadleaved forests (Quercus ilex, Quercus suber and O. europaea) expanded at the cost of open communities. The expansion of evergreen broadleaved forests was associated with a decline of fire and of local Neolithic (Ficus carica–Cerealia based) agriculture that had initiated ca 500 years earlier. Vegetational, fire and land-use changes ca 7000 cal yr BP were probably caused by increased precipitation that resulted from (insolation-forced) weakening of the monsoon and Hadley circulation ca 8000–6000 cal yr BP. Low fire activity and dense coastal evergreen forests persisted until renewed human activity (probably Greek, respectively Roman colonists) disrupted the forest ca 2700 cal yr BP (750 BC) and 2100 cal yr BP (150 BC) to gain open land for agriculture. The intense use of fire for this purpose induced the expansion of open maquis, garrigue, and grassland-prairie environments (with an increasing abundance of the native palm Chamaerops humilis). Prehistoric land-use phases after the Bronze Age seem synchronous with those at other sites in southern and central Europe, possibly as a result of climatic forcing. Considering the response of vegetation to Holocene climatic variability as well as human impact we conclude that under (semi-)natural conditions evergreen broadleaved Q. ilex–O. europaea (s.l.) forests would still dominate near Gorgo Basso. However, forecasted climate change and aridification may lead to a situation similar to that before 7000 cal yr BP and thus trigger a rapid collapse of the few relict evergreen broadleaved woodlands in coastal Sicily and elsewhere in the southern Mediterranean region.     

Hybrid character and pre-eruptive events of Mt Amiata volcano (Italy) inferred from geochronological,petro-geochemical and isotopic data

A new geochronological and geochemical study was carried out to better constrain the petrogenesis and eruptive history of Monte Amiata, a large Pleistocene trachydacitic volcano of Southern Tuscany. Previous studies suggested a magma mixing origin between calc-alkaline silicic melts from the Tuscan Magmatic Province (TMP) and potassic mafic melts like those found in the Roman Magmatic Province (RMP). Two eruptive episodes–the first at ca. 300 kyr, the second at ca. 200 kyr–were distinguished from the few available ages. However, both the involvement of a RMP-like melt as mafic end-member and the timing of volcanic activity remained to be ascertained. The K–Ar ages obtained on plagioclase, sanidine and glass separated from Mt Amiata volcanic rocks demonstrate the sanidine is the most suitable phase for K–Ar dating. Sanidine yields ages of 304–293 kyr for the basal trachydacitic unit (BTC), 298–280 kyr in the domes unit (DLC) and unexpected older ages of 312–308 kyr for the more mafic summit lava unit (OLL). A careful re-examination of the literature ages together with those obtained in this study shows that they tend to a common age of ca. 300 kyr whatever the volcanic unit. We interpret this as a reset of the K–Ar chronometer in response to a consequent recharge of the silicic magma reservoir by hot mafic melts. This recharge most probably triggered the first volcanic eruption of Mt Amiata magmas. In our model, we suppose an initially chemically-stratified magma chamber; the input of deep hot mafic melts reset the crystals clock and probably allowed the eruption of the huge amount of trachydacitic crystal mush. We propose that the controversial BTC unit could have emplaced during a non-explosive eruption if we consider either pre-eruption passive degassing or extrusion of the trachydacites as magmatic foam.First Pb isotopic data of mafic enclaves from the trachydacitic units, together with major and trace elements and new Sr and Nd data support the magma mixing as the dominant process at the origin of the Mt Amiata volcanic rocks. The similar LILE/HFSE ratios evidenced in this contribution between the magmatic enclaves of Mt Amiata and RMP volcanic rocks, together with their comparable Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, definitively argue for the involvement of a RMP-like melt in the mixing. The Mt Amiata is thus indisputably a hybrid volcano between TMP and RMP in terms of petrogenesis and ages.     

Upper Pleistocene tectonics in western Sardinia (Italy): Insights from the Sinis peninsula structural high

The Corsica‐Sardinia block is a lithospheric fragment whose recent role in the geodynamics of the central‐Western Mediterranean basin is still enigmatic. The most recent regional structure in Sardinia is the Plio‐Pleistocene Campidano Basin, which is considered in a ‘post‐rift’ stage since the Middle Pleistocene. New structural and stratigraphic geological surveys along with luminescence ages provide evidence to support an ongoing tectonic activity since the Marine Isotopic Stage 7 (MIS7; ca. 220 ka) on the Sinis peninsula, the structural high that bounds the north‐western side of the Campidano Basin. In particular, this paper reveals for the first time the presence of N–S striking normal faults system offsetting late Pleistocene aeolianites (130 ± 12 ka; 82 ± 9 ka).     

Initial orbit determination using multiple observations

A novel approach for initial orbit determination based on multiple angles-only observations is presented. The proposed technique is iterative and uses Lagrangian coefficients, f and g. The proposed method does not show singularity for the coplanar cases. In addition, the method is capable of handling multiple observations, providing higher accuracy, whereas the level of the algorithm complexity and processor running time remain almost invariant. The technique presented is compared with the Double r-iteration and Gauss’ methods using data corrupted by noise to simulate true measurements. Results show that the proposed method is a valid alternative to the classical methods of orbit determination.