Geophysical investigation of the Sandalp rock avalanche deposits

In the study of rock avalanche phenomena, numerical modelling makes use of back analyses of the rock avalanche propagation for calibration of the modelling assumptions and parameters. The back analyses require knowledge of the run-out area boundaries and the thickness distribution of the deposit. Geophysical methods can be applied to retrieve the thickness distribution, but, due to strong heterogeneities and logistic problems they are seldom applied. The aim of this work is to assess the potential of integrated geophysical methods to recognise and characterise a deposit created by two rock avalanches which occurred in the Sandalp valley (Switzerland) in 1996. The topography of the site before and after the rock avalanche is known and can be used as a benchmark. Resistivity tomography, seismic P-wave tomography, and active and passive surface wave analysis have been applied on several profiles deployed both on the rock avalanche deposit and in the surrounding area. Innovative approaches for surface wave analysis based on laterally constrained inversion and multimodal inversion have been applied to the data. A comparison of the results of the geophysical investigations with the topographic benchmark has shown the capability of the geophysical methods to locate the bottom of the deposit in the areas where the contrast with the host sediments properties is significant. In these areas, the deposit has higher resistivities and lower seismic velocities than the underlying materials. In the areas where the deposit is thicker and richer in fine-grained materials the geophysical parameters are not able to discriminate between the rock avalanche deposit and the underlying sediments. As a secondary task, the geophysical methods also allowed the bedrock pattern to be outlined.     

Shifting styles of basaltic explosive activity during the 2002–03 eruption of Mt. Etna, Italy

The 2002–03 flank eruption of Etna was characterized by two months of explosive activity that produced copious ash fallout, constituting a major source of hazard and damage over all eastern Sicily. Most of the tephra were erupted from vents at 2750 and 2800 m elevation on the S flank of the volcano, where different eruptive styles alternated. The dominant style of explosive activity consisted of discrete to pulsing magma jets mounted by wide ash plumes, which we refer to as ash-rich jets and plumes. Similarly, ash-rich explosive activity was also briefly observed during the 2001 flank eruption of Etna, but is otherwise fairly uncommon in the recent history of Etna. Here, we describe the features of the 2002–03 explosive activity and compare it with the 2001 eruption in order to characterize ash-rich jets and plumes and their transition with other eruptive styles, including Strombolian and ash explosions, mainly through chemical, componentry and morphology investigations of erupted ash. Past models explain the transition between different styles of basaltic explosive activity only in terms of flow conditions of gas and liquid. Our findings suggest that the abundant presence of a solid phase (microlites) may also control vent degassing and consequent magma fragmentation and eruptive style. In fact, in contrast with the Strombolian or Hawaiian microlite-poor, fluidal, sideromelane clasts, ash-rich jets and plumes produce crystal-rich tachylite clasts with evidence of brittle fragmentation, suggesting that high groundmass crystallinity of the very top part of the magma column may reduce bubble movement while increasing fragmentation efficiency.     

Flare forecasting based on sunspot-groups characteristics

Our comprehension of solar flares is still lacking in many aspects and the possibility of observing active regions during the first phases of flare occurrence is limited by our capability of doing accurate flare forecasting. In order to give a contribution to this aspect, we focused our attention on the characteristics that must be fulfilled by sunspot-groups in order to be flare-productive. We addressed this problem using a statistical approach: first, we analyzed sunspot-groups parameters (i.e., Zürich class, magnetic configuration, area, morphology of the penumbra) and evolution; then, we performed a flare forecasting campaign, based on the results obtained in the first phase and on real-time observations. The results obtained by comparing the flare forecasting probability with the number of flares that have actually occurred are quite encouraging; we plan to improve this procedure by including a bigger statistical sampling.     

A self‐limiting bank erosion mechanism? inferring temporal variations in bank form and skin drag from high resolution topographic data

Fluvial bank erosion rates are often quantified by assuming that the erosion rate is a function of the excess (above a critical threshold) boundary shear stress applied by the flow. Research has shown that the form roughness induced by natural topographic bank features, such as slumps, spurs and embayments, is the dominant component of the spatially‐averaged total shear stress, meaning that form roughness provides an important control on bank erosion rates. However, measuring the relative components of the total shear stress for a natural system is not straightforward. In this work we use the method of Kean and Smith to partition the form and skin drag components of river bank roughness using a time series (2005–2011) of high‐resolution topographic surveys of an eroding bank of the Cecina River in central Italy. This method approximates the form drag component of the roughness along a longitudinal bank profile as a series of user‐defined Gaussian curves. The extracted metrics are used in conjunction with an estimate of the outer region flow velocity to partition the form and skin drag components of the total boundary shear stress according to the Kean and Smith analytical solution. The relative magnitude of the form and skin shear stress at each survey date is analysed alongside DEMs of difference to reveal that intense episodes of erosion are followed by periods of quiescence. We show that this is due to the protection offered by increased form drag roughness following erosion. We conceptualise the dynamic feedbacks that exist between river discharge, bank erosion processes and bank form roughness, into a simple model of the self‐limiting nature of river bank erosion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastic model for the gravity and elevation changes before the 2001 eruption of Etna volcano

For 5 months before the 2001 Mt. Etna eruption, a progressive gravity decrease was measured along a profile of stations on the southern slope of the volcano. Between January and July 2001, the amplitude of the change reached 80 μGal, while the wavelength of the anomaly was of the order of 15 km. Elevation changes observed through GPS measurements during a period encompassing the 5-month gravity decrease, remained within 4–6 cm over the entire volcano and within 2–4 cm in the zone covered by the microgravity profile. We review both gravity and elevation changes by a model assuming the formation of new cracks, uniformly distributed in a rectangular prism. The inversion problem was formulated following a global optimization approach based on the use of Genetic Algorithms. Although it is possible to explain the observed gravity changes by means of the proposed analytical formulation, the results show that calculated elevation changes are significantly higher than those observed. Two alternative hypotheses are proposed to account for this apparent discrepancy: (1) that the assumptions behind the analytical formulation, used to invert the data, are fallacious at Etna, and thus, numerical models should be utilized; (2) that a second process, enabling a considerable mass decrease to occur without deformation, acted together with the formation of new cracks in the source volume.