Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a^?1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra‐high‐resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea‐level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea‐level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in the Brazilian Sertão

Climate models agree that semi-arid regions around the world are likely to experience increased rainfall variability and longer droughts in the coming decades. In regions dependent on agriculture, such changes threaten to aggravate existing food insecurity and economic underdevelopment, and to push migration to urban areas. In the Brazilian semi-arid region, the Sertão, farmers’ vulnerability to climate—past, present, and future—stems from several factors, including low yielding production practices and reliance on scarce and seasonally variable water resources. Using interpolated local climate data, we show that, since 1962, in the Bacia do Jacuípe—one of the poorest regions in the Sertão of Bahía state—average temperatures have increased?~?2 °C and rainfall has decreased?~?350 mm. Over the same time period, average milk productivity—the main rural economic activity in the county—has fallen while in Brazil and in Bahía as a whole milk productivity has increased dramatically. This paper teases apart the drivers of climate vulnerability of the Bacia do Jacuípe in relation to the rest of Bahía. We then present the results of a suite of pilot projects by Adapta Sertão, a coalition of organizations working to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers living in the semi-arid region. By testing a number of different technologies and arrangements at the farm level, Adapta Sertão has shown that interventions focused on balanced animal diets and efficient irrigation systems can help reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of production systems from climate. They are thus viable adaptation strategies that should be tested at a larger scale, with implications for semi-arid regions worldwide.     

The Piànico tephra: an early Middle Pleistocene record of intraplate volcanism in the Mediterranean

ABSTRACT Distal tephra are a valuable record of the volcano-tectonic evolution of an area under study. Here, we document the case of the Early Middle Pleistocene rhyolitic tephra of Piànico, discovered in the Southern Italian Alps. The geochemical characteristics of Piànico are unique among the distal tephra outcropping in Italy and indicate an intraplate volcanism at the source. The alkali composition and trace elements show a striking resemblance with the rhyolitic complex of the Euganean Hills, located 170 km from Piànico. However, these rhyolites are much older (Oligocene). Alternatively, the source of this intraplate volcanic episode could be located in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea.     

A modeling language to support the interoperability of global navigation satellite systems

The availability of multiple Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) will offer the opportunity to provide seamless navigation services and improved positioning performance. However, before this opportunity can be exploited, a number of issues need to be solved to ensure the compatibility and interoperability of existing GNSS. In particular, the GNSS interoperability can be technically defined as the capability of receivers to compute their global position using two or more GNSS signals. This capability can be more effectively achieved if Signal-In-Space interface specifications are available in a consistent, unambiguous, and possibly standard format, which can support engineers to design interoperable receivers. We aim to support the design of interoperable receivers with the introduction of the Interface Communication Modeling Language (ICML), a graphical language for the formal specification of Signal-In-Space interfaces. The ICML language enables receiver engineers to specify these interfaces at different levels of abstraction, such as analog signal or binary data. In addition, the ICML language also supports the specification of conversion routines between adjacent levels, for the representation of the dynamic aspects—e.g., convolution and encryption processes—of the interface specification. As such, the ICML language proposes an alternative format to textual-based interface specifications and can possibly integrate with the ongoing trend of the Model-based Systems Engineering approaches. We present the structure of the framework implementing the language and an example ICML-based specification for a simplified and reduced version of the Galileo Freely Accessible Navigation (F/NAV) message. The language metamodel is also attached for technical reference. An important caveat: no endorsement is made for the use of the ICML language for the official Galileo Signal-In-Space interface specification.     

Current Behaviour and Dynamics of the Lowermost Italian Glacier (Montasio Occidentale,Julian Alps)

Smaller glaciers (<0.5 km²) react quickly to environmental changes and typically show a large scatter in their individual response. Accounting for these ice bodies is essential for assessing regional glacier change, given their high number and contribution to the total loss of glacier area in mountain regions. However, studying small glaciers using traditional techniques may be difficult or not feasible, and assessing their current activity and dynamics may be problematic. In this paper, we present an integrated approach for characterizing the current behaviour of a small, avalanche‐fed glacier at low altitude in the Italian Alps, combining geomorphological, geophysical and high‐resolution geodetic surveying with a terrestrial laser scanner. The glacier is still active and shows a detectable mass transfer from the accumulation area to the lower ablation area, which is covered by a thick debris mantle. The glacier owes its existence to the local topo‐climatic conditions, ensured by high rock walls which enhance accumulation by delivering avalanche snow and reduce ablation by providing topographic shading and regulating the debris budget of the glacier catchment. In the last several years the glacier has displayed peculiar behaviour compared with most glaciers of the European Alps, being close to equilibrium conditions in spite of warm ablation seasons. Proportionally small relative changes have also occurred since the Little Ice Age maximum. Compared with the majority of other Alpine glaciers, we infer for this glacier a lower sensitivity to air temperature and a higher sensitivity to precipitation, associated with important feedback from increasing debris cover during unfavourable periods.     

The distribution of daily snow water equivalent in the central Italian Alps

The statistical distribution of the daily Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is investigated for a network of gauging stations in the Alpine part of Lombardia region, in the central Italian Alps. An event based data analysis is carried out using a 14 year long data set dating back to 1989. SWE is estimated when the new snow depth is greater than 6 cm. The SWE sample average in time is shown to be related to physiographic attributes of the gauging area, thus not being homogeneous in space. The values of SWE scaled by their average, or index value, instead show well approximated homogeneity of the second order moment, or coefficient of variation, in space. This suggests the use of a regional approach for frequency estimation of SWE. The frequency of occurrence of the normalized values of SWE is evaluated and tentatively accommodated by four probability distributions, often adopted in statistical modeling of hydrological variables. The Lognormal distribution shows the best performance. Single site distribution fitting is then carried out using the regional distribution, providing satisfactory results.