Influence of mid-latitude circulation on upper Indus basin precipitation: the explicit role of irrigation

Since much of the flow of the Indus River originates in the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains, an understanding of weather characteristics leading to precipitation over the region is essential for water resources management. This study examines the influence of upper level mid-latitude circulation on the summer precipitation over upper Indus basin (UIB). Using reanalysis data, a geopotential height index (GH) is defined at 200 hPa over central Asia, which has a significant correlation with the precipitation over UIB. GH has also shown significant correlation with the heat low (over Iran and Afghanistan and adjoining Pakistan), easterly shear of zonal winds (associated with central Asian high) and evapotranspiration (over UIB). It is argued that the geopotential height index has the potential to serve as a precursor for the precipitation over UIB. In order to assess the influence of irrigation on precipitation over UIB, a simplified irrigation scheme has been developed and applied to the regional climate model REMO. It has been shown that both versions of REMO (with and without irrigation) show significant correlations of GH with easterly wind shear and heat low. However contrary to reanalysis and the REMO version with irrigation, the REMO version without irrigation does not show any correlation between GH index and evapotranspiration as well as between geopotential height and precipitation over UIB, which is further confirmed by the quantitative analysis of extreme precipitation events over UIB. It is concluded that although atmospheric moisture over coastal Arabian sea region, triggered by wind shear and advected northward due to heat low, also contribute to the UIB precipitation. However for the availability of necessary moisture for precipitation over UIB, the major role is played by the evapotranspiration of water from irrigation. From the results it may also be inferred that the representation of irrigated water in climate models is unavoidable for studying the impact of global warming over the region.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

40Ar‐39Ar step‐heating of impact glasses from the Nördlinger Ries impact crater—Implications on excess argon in impact melts and tektites

Seven impact melts from various places in the Nördlinger Ries were dated by ⁴⁰Ar‐³⁹Ar step‐heating. The aim of these measurements was to increase the age data base for Ries impact glasses directly from the Ries crater, because there is only one Ar‐Ar step‐heating spectrum available in the literature. Almost all samples display saddle‐shaped age spectra, indicating the presence of excess argon in most Ries glass samples, most probably inherited argon from incompletely degassed melt and possibly also excess argon incorporated during cooling from adjacent phases. In contrast, moldavites usually contain no inherited argon, probably due to their different formation process implying solidification during ballistic transport. The plateau age of the only flat spectrum is 14.60 ± 0.16 (0.20) Ma (2σ), while the total age of this sample is 14.86 ± 0.20 (0.22) Ma (isochron age: 14.72 ± 0.18 [0.22] Ma [2σ]), proofing the chronological relationship of the Ries impact and moldavites. The total ages of the other samples range between 15.77 ± 0.52 and 20.4 ± 1.0 Ma (2σ), implying approximately 2–40% excess ⁴⁰Ar (compared to the nominal age of the Ries crater) in respective samples. Thus, the age of 14.60 ± 0.16 (0.20) (2σ) (14.75 ± 0.16 [0.20 Ma] [2σ], calculated using the most recent suggestions for the K decay constants) can be considered as reliable and is within uncertainties indistinguishable from the most recent compilation for the age of the moldavite tektites.     

Coeval argon‐40/argon‐39 ages of moldavites from the Bohemian and Lusatian strewn fields

Abstract— ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of four tektites (moldavites) from southern Bohemia (near ?eské Budějovice, Czech Republic) and a tektite from Lusatia (near Dresden, Germany) have been determined by 11 step‐degassing experiments. The purpose of the study was to enlarge the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data base of moldavites and to check the age relations of the Bohemian and Lusatian samples. The mean plateau‐age of the Bohemian samples, which range from 14.42 to 14.70 Ma, is 14.50 ± 0.16 (0.42) (2σ) Ma (errors in parentheses include age error and uncertainty of standard monitor age). The plateau age of the Lusatian sample of 14.38 ± 0.26 (0.44) (2σ) Ma confirms the previously published ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 14.52 ± 0.08 (0.40) (2σ) Ma, and demonstrates that the fall of Lusatian and Bohemian tektites were contemporaneous. Because of their geochemistry and their ages there is no doubt that the Lusatian tektites are moldavites. Accepting that moldavites are ejecta from the Nördlinger Ries impact, the new ages also date the impact event. This age is slightly younger (about 0.2–0.3 Ma) than the age suggested by earlier K‐Ar determinations.     

The magnetic properties of Quaternary and Tertiary sediments in the southern North Sea

Cores from boreholes penetrating late Quaternary, glacial, interglacial and postglacial sediments and the underlying late Cenozoic delta complex of the southern North Sea have been examined for their magnetic properties. A magnetic polarity stratigraphy has been established as an aid to biostratigraphic dating of the sediments; the Kaena-Gauss and Gauss—Matuyama transitions and the base and top of the Olduvai subchron have been identified. The strength and stability of laboratory-induced isothermal remanent magnetisation display clear magneto-petrological variations, which match lithostratigraphic changes in the cores. Principal component analysis has picked out a basin-wide and palaeoenvironmental consistency in the magnetic data. Large, multi-domain magnetite grains predominate in the post-deltaic and fluvio-deltaic sediments, whereas smaller greigite or titanomagnetite grains are concentrated in the intertidal and marine deltaic facies. Since heavy mineral analysis indicates that most of the deltaic detritus derived from common source areas, the differences in magnetic mineralogy have probably been caused by the sediment transport processes operating within the delta complex.     

Low-grade metamorphic rocks from the Pulur complex,NE Turkey: implications for the pre-Liassic evolution of the Eastern Pontides

In the Pulur complex (Sakarya Zone, Eastern Pontides, Turkey) a low-grade tectonometamorphic unit (Doankavak) is exposed in three tectonic windows beneath a complex medium-pressure high-temperature metamorphic unit of late Carboniferous age. The thrust plane between both units is transgressively covered by Liassic conglomerates. The Doankavak unit comprises a sequence of metabasites with MORB-type chemical compositions and phyllites, with subordinate calcareous phyllites, marbles, quarzofeldspathic schists and metacherts. This sequence is interpreted as a former accretionary complex related to the consumption of the Palaeotethys. Mineral parageneses in the metabasites allow for the distinction of two domains with slightly different peak metamorphic conditions, i.e. 375–425 °C/0.5–0.8 GPa (greenschist facies) and 400–470 °C/0.6–1.1 GPa (albite-epidote amphibolite facies). The age of metamorphism is constrained at ~ 260 Ma (early Late Permian) by two Rb-Sr mineral-whole rock ages (hornblende, phengite) and one ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single step total fusion age (phengite). In conjunction with previous data on other accretionary complexes in the Sakarya zone in Northern Turkey, the data presented in this study suggest a continuous subduction of the Palaeotethys at least from Early/Late Permian to Late Triassic and a discontinuous preservation of accretion complexes in both space and time.     

Do extrusion ages reflect magma generation processes at depth? An example from the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain

The high-K calc-alkaline volcanic rocks along the Neogene Volcanic Province of SE Spain represent crustal anatectic melts mixed with mantle components during the opening of the Alborán Sea. Partially melted metapelitic enclaves, along with the geochemical signature, provide evidence of their crustal source. U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology on monazite and zircon from enclaves and their hosting lavas in the localities of El Hoyazo, Mazarrón and Mar Menor reveals variable delays between the melting at depth and the eruption of the volcanics. These data indicate that: (1) the most important event of anatexis in the Neogene spanned at least the 3 m.y. interval between 12 and 9 Ma; (2) there is no trend in age of crustal melting; and (3) the delay between magma generation and extrusion varies from more than 3 m.y. at El Hoyazo to ~0.5 m.y. and possibly 2.5 m.y. at Mar Menor, with no significant delay measurable at Mazarrón. The variable time delay between anatexis and lava extrusion indicates that radiometric ages of volcanics may provide misleading information on the timing of magma genesis occurring at depth. This highlights the pitfall of basing detailed geodynamic models on volcanic extrusion ages alone. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Die F-Ionisation in den Morgenstunden

Zusammenfassung Die Elektronenkonzentration in derF-Schicht der Ionosphäre wächst in den Morgenstunden nicht einfach proportional dem Cosinus des Einfallswinkels der Sonnenstrahlung, sondern sie folgt einem linearen Gesetz von der Formn=a. cos +b. Diese Gestzmässigkeit kann erklärt werden, wenn man die Schichtbildung nach denChapman'schen Ansätzen für eine gekrümmte Erde berechnet und einen Ionenvernichtungsprozess voraussetzt, demzufolge die Vernichtung der Ionen ihrer jewwiligen Konzentration linear proportional ist.Die genannten Grössena andb sind zeitlich und örtlich variabel, aus ihren Veränderungen schliessen wir auf Temperaturverhältnisse in der Ionosphäre, die dadurch ausgezeichnet sind, dass sie in ähnlicher Weise auch in der viel tiefer liegenden Stratosphäre wiedergefunden werden: In polaren Gegenden herrschen darnach im Polarsommer höhere, im Polarwinter dagegen tiefere Temperaturen als in den gemässigten Breiten.

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Summary In the ionospheric F-layer the electron densityn increases with the formulan=a. cos+b in the morning ( is meaning the zenithangle of the sun). This experimental result may be explained by consideration of earth-curvature and by assumption of a linear recombination-law equally an attachment process. The constantsa andb vary with season and location. We conclude the temperature from these variations and we find for polar locations a greater temperature in the summer and on the other hand a smaller temperature in the winter as for temperate latitudes.

     

Stellenangebote und Stellengesuche

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