Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results

Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections.     

High-resolution magnetostratigraphy and micropalaeontology across the J/K boundary strata at Brodno near ilina, western Slovakia: summary of results

This study summarizes the final results of magnetostratigraphic and micropalaeontological investigations of the Tithonian/Berriasian boundary (J/K) limestones at the locality of Brodno near ilina, Western Carpathians, West Slovakia. The aim is to prepare the background for correlation of a Late Tithonian and Early Berriasian biostratigraphic zonation with global magnetoevents (manifested in detailed magnetostratigraphic profiles) between the Tethyan realm and other regions, particularly the Boreal and Pacific realms. Suitable physical properties of the limestones studied, a favourable geological setting and rich microfossil assemblages (calpionellids) at Brodno (magnetozones M21r to M18r) allowed a systematic collection of new data on the original synoptic section, which now has the character of a high-resolution profile across the J/K boundary. Two reverse subzones detected within magnetozones M20n and M19n are named ‘Kysuca Subzone’ and ‘Brodno Subzone’, respectively. Both can be correlated with analogous subzones in the M-sequence of marine anomalies. Their existence can also be confirmed in the Bosso Valley section in Umbria, central Italy. A detailed study of the interval between magnetozones M20n and M17r in the Bosso Valley profile is presently in its final stage. Both magnetostratigraphic profiles, from the Brodno and Bosso Valley localities, were thoroughly investigated in the intervals close to the J/K boundary and are still unique among continent-based profiles in the detection and precise definition of both reverse subzones within M20n and M19n. Samples collected from the boundary strata of the reverse Kysuca Subzone at Brodno indicated a transition from N (R) to R (N) polarity of the Earth's palaeomagnetic field within a time interval of c. ±5 ka. Limestone samples (total number N=368) were subjected to progressive thermal demagnetization in 10–12 thermal fields and to subsequent multi-component analysis of remanence. The C-component, as the carrier of palaeomagnetic directions, was determined in the temperature interval of 300° to 540°, or possibly 580°C. Magnetomineralogical analyses of pilot samples and unblocking temperatures determined for all samples showed that magnetite is the carrier of remanent magnetization. The positions of the individual events of calpionellid stratigraphy relative to the global magnetic polarity timescale are precisely defined. The base of the Calpionella Standard Zone, which is considered a provisional J/K boundary indicator in ammonite-free sections in the Tethyan realm, lies within magnetozone M19n at the level of 35% of its local thickness. None of the boundaries in the calpionellid zonation coincides precisely with any of those in the palaeomagnetic zonation, but the first appearance ofCalpionella grandalpina , indicating the base of the Intermedia Subzone, lies in close proximity to the base of magnetozone M19r.     

Seasonal changes and biochemical composition of the labile organic matter flux in the Cretan Sea

Downward fluxes of labile organic matter (lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) at 200 (trap A) and 1515 m depth (trap B), measured during a 12 months sediment trap experiment, are presented, together with estimates of the bacterial and cyanobacterial biomasses associated to the particles. The biochemical composition of the settling particles was determined in order to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the flux of readily available organic carbon supplying the deep-sea benthic communities of the Cretan Sea. Total mass flux and labile carbon fluxes were characterised by a clear seasonality. Higher labile organic fluxes were reported in trap B, indicating the presence of resuspended particles coming from lateral inputs. Particulate carbohydrates were the major component of the flux of labile compounds (on annual average about 66% of the total labile organic flux) followed by lipids (20%) and proteins (13%). The biopolymeric carbon flux was very low (on annual average 0.9 and 1.2 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, at trap A and B). Labile carbon accounted for most of the OC flux (on annual average 84% and 74% in trap A and B respectively). In trap A, highest carbohydrate and protein fluxes in April and September, corresponded to high faecal pellet fluxes. The qualitative composition of the organic fluxes indicated a strong protein depletion in trap B and a decrease of the bioavailability of the settling particles as a result of a higher degree of dilution with inorganic material. Quantity and quality of the food supply to the benthos displayed different temporal patterns. Bacterial biomass in the sediment traps (on average 122 and 229 μgC m⁻² d⁻¹ in trap A and B, respectively) was significantly correlated to the flux of labile organic carbon, and particularly to the protein and carbohydrate fluxes. Cyanobacterial flux (on average, 1.1 and 0.4 μgC m⁻² d⁻¹, in trap A and B, respectively) was significantly correlated with total mass and protein fluxes only in trap A. Bacterial carbon flux, equivalent to 84.2 and 156 mgC m⁻² y⁻¹, accounted for 5–6.5% of the labile carbon flux (in trap A and B respectively) and for 22–41% protein pool of the settling particles. These results suggest that in the Cretan Sea, bacteria attached to the settling particles represent a potential food source of primary importance for deep-sea benthic communities.