Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the development of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the last Interglacial (MIS 5e). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool initially existed at the site. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in the basin, which could in turn induce thermokarst and create a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. The chironomid record points to three successive stages during the history of the lake: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., shallower than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., deeper than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The trend of palaeo-lake development indicates that intensive thermokarst processes occurred in the region during the last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum. The climate was moister and warmer than present. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic due to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblages.     

Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area.     

Russia at GHG Market

In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO₂ emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO₂emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO₂emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO₂ emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO₂emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway.     

The measurement of sulfate mineral solubilities in the Na-K-Ca-Cl-SO4-H2O system at temperatures of 100, 150 and 200°C

At T > 100°C development of thermodynamic models suffers from missing experimental data, particularly for solubilities of sulfate minerals in mixed solutions. Solubilities in Na⁺-K⁺-Ca²⁺-Cl⁻-SO₄²⁻/H₂O subsystems were investigated at 150, 200°C and at selected compositions at 100°C. The apparatus used to examine solid-liquid phase equilibria under hydrothermal conditions has been described.In the system NaCl-CaSO₄-H₂O the missing anhydrite (CaSO₄) solubilities at high NaCl concentrations up to halite saturation have been determined. In the system Na₂SO₄-CaSO₄-H₂O the observed glauberite (Na₂SO₄ · CaSO₄) solubility is higher than that predicted by the high temperature model of Greenberg and Møller (1989), especially at 200°C. At high salt concentrations, solubilities of both anhydrite and glauberite increase with increasing temperature. Stability fields of the minerals syngenite (K₂SO₄ · CaSO₄ · H₂O) and goergeyite (K₂SO₄ · 5 CaSO₄ · H₂O) were determined, and a new phase was found at 200°C in the K₂SO₄-CaSO₄-H₂O system. Chemical and single crystal structure analysis give the formula K₂SO₄ · CaSO₄. The structure is isostructural with palmierite (K₂SO₄ · PbSO₄). The glaserite (“3 K₂SO₄ · Na₂SO₄”) appears as solid solution in the system Na₂SO₄-K₂SO₄-H₂O. Its solubility and stoichiometry was determined as a function of solution composition.     

A complex, Subplinian-type eruption from low-viscosity, phonolitic to tephri-phonolitic magma: the AD 472 (Pollena) eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, Italy

The combined use of field investigation and laboratory analyses allowed the detailed stratigraphic reconstruction of the Pollena eruption (472 AD) of Somma-Vesuvius. Three main eruptive phases were recognized, related either to changes in the eruptive processes and/or to relative changes of melt composition. The eruption shows a pulsating behavior with deposition of pyroclastic fall beds and generation of dilute and dense pyroclastic density currents (PDC). The eruptive mechanisms and transportation dynamics were reconstructed for the whole eruption. Column heights were between 12 and 20 km, corresponding to mass discharge rates (MDR) of 7×10⁶ kg/s and 3.4×10⁷ kg/s. Eruptive dynamics were driven by magmatic fragmentation of a phono-tephritic to tephri-phonolitic magma during Phases I and II, whereas phreatomagmatic fragmentation dominated Phase III. Magma composition varies between phonolitic and tephritic-phonolitic, with melt viscosity likely not in excess of 10³ Pa s. The volume of the pyroclastic fall deposits, calculated by using of proximal isopachs, is 0.44 km³. This increases to 1.38 km³ if ash volumes are extrapolated on a log thickness vs. square root area diagram using one distal isopach and column height.Editorial responsibility: R Cioni     

Crystal-chemistry of clinopyroxenes from potassic and ultrapotassic rocks in central Italy: implications on their genesis

The clinopyroxenes mentioned have been investigated by single crystal X-ray diffraction combined with electron microprobe analysis. The aim of this study was to characterize the crystal-chemical variations of clinopyroxenes in order to delineate the intracrystalline constraints which are characteristic of specific magmatic environments. Clinopyroxenes (cpx) crystallized from peralkaline ultrapotassic melt with kamafugitic and lamproitic affinities are characterized by high Si contents, which are insensitive to variations in silica abundance and silica saturation of the melt. The high Si occupancy in clinopyroxenes from kamafugitic magma is coupled to large M1 (i.e. Mg and Fe²⁺) and M2 (high Ca occupancy) sites, whereas in clinopyroxenes from magmas with lamproitic affinity, high Si content is combined with large M1 but small M2 sites. Clinopyroxenes from Romantype alkaline potassic and ultrapostassic rocks are characterized by an expanded tetrahedron (high ^IVA1 content) and small M1 site which is combined with small M2 polyhedron in clinopyroxenes from the potassic rocks and large M2 site in those from the ultrapotassic rocks.     

New Reference Materials and Assessment of Matrix Effects for SIMS Measurements of Oxygen Isotopes in Garnet

Accurate ion microprobe analysis of oxygen isotope ratios in garnet requires appropriate reference materials to correct for instrumental mass fractionation that partly depends on the garnet chemistry (matrix effect). The matrix effect correlated with grossular, spessartine and andradite components was characterised for the Cameca IMS 1280HR at the SwissSIMS laboratory based on sixteen reference garnet samples. The correlations fit a second‐degree polynomial with maximum bias of ca. 4‰, 2‰ and 8‰, respectively. While the grossular composition range 0–25% is adequately covered by available reference materials, there is a paucity of them for intermediate compositions. We characterise three new garnet reference materials GRS2, GRS‐JH2 and CAP02 with a grossular content of 88.3 ± 1.2% (2s), 83.3 ± 0.8% and 32.5 ± 3.0%, respectively. Their micro scale homogeneity in oxygen isotope composition was evaluated by multiple SIMS sessions. The reference δ¹⁸O value was determined by CO₂ laser fluorination (δ¹⁸O_LF). GRS2 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 8.01 ± 0.10‰ (2s) and repeatability within each SIMS session of 0.30–0.60‰ (2s), GRS‐JH2 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 18.70 ± 0.08‰ and repeatability of 0.24–0.42‰ and CAP02 has δ¹⁸O_LF = 4.64 ± 0.16‰ and repeatability of 0.40–0.46‰.