秦岭地区气溶胶对地形云降水的抑制作用

以华山站为影响站, 周围的西安、渭南和华阴作为对比站, 通过影响站与对比站降水之比——地形强化因子(Ro)的变化趋势以及Ro与能见度关系的分析, 定量研究了秦岭地区气溶胶对地形云降水的抑制作用。Ro的演变分析表明: 有观测以来Ro逐年递减, 减幅为14%～20%, 即影响站与对比站相比降水量减少了14%～20%; Ro的减少趋势与能见度递减、气溶胶递增相吻合, 说明气溶胶的增加抑制了地形云降水。Ro的递减主要是减少了中小雨 (日雨量小于30 mm) 的天数, 这种影响对浅薄的生命期较短的地形云降水作用更明显, 对于华山站, 30 mm以下的降水都会受到入云气溶胶的抑制作用, 而西安站为5 mm以下, 入云气溶胶浓度越高, 就有越厚的降水云受气溶胶影响而抑制降水; 在以动力强迫抬升为主的春秋季, 气溶胶抑制华山地形云降水20%左右, 最大可达25%; 在热对流条件下, 气溶胶对地形云和对平原地区云的抑制作用基本相当。不同风速风向下Ro的变化趋势表明, Ro递减随风速增大而加快, 迎风向 (240°～30°) 大风 (≥5 m/s) 时减少降水超过30%。由Ro与能见度关系的定量分析发现, 当能见度在14 km时Ro为1.8左右, 随着能见度的降低Ro逐渐减小, 当能见度小于8 km时,R0约为1.2, 减小了30%左右; 华山对于华阴的Ro与能见度呈线性关系, 相关系数达0.81。最后, 根据研究结果归纳出气溶胶抑制秦岭地区地形云降水的初步物理模型。     

A meta-analysis of global crop water productivity of three leading world crops (wheat,corn, and rice) in the irrigated areas over three decades

ABSTRACT

The overarching goal of this study was to perform a comprehensive meta-analysis of irrigated agricultural Crop Water Productivity (CWP) of the world’s three leading crops: wheat, corn, and rice based on three decades of remote sensing and non-remote sensing-based studies. Overall, CWP data from 148 crop growing study sites (60 wheat, 43 corn, and 45 rice) spread across the world were gathered from published articles spanning 31 different countries. There was overwhelming evidence of a significant increase in CWP with an increase in latitude for predominately northern hemisphere datasets. For example, corn grown in latitude 40–50° had much higher mean CWP (2.45?kg/m³) compared to mean CWP of corn grown in other latitudes such as 30–40° (1.67?kg/m³) or 20–30° (0.94?kg/m³). The same trend existed for wheat and rice as well. For soils, none of the CWP values, for any of the three crops, were statistically different. However, mean CWP in higher latitudes for the same soil was significantly higher than the mean CWP for the same soil in lower latitudes. This applied for all three crops studied. For wheat, the global CWP categories were low (≤0.75?kg/m³), medium (>0.75 to <1.10?kg/m³), and high CWP (≥1.10?kg/m³). For corn the global CWP categories were low (≤1.25?kg/m³), medium (>1.25 to ≤1.75?kg/m³), and high (>1.75?kg/m³). For rice the global CWP categories were low (≤0.70?kg/m³), medium (>0.70 to ≤1.25?kg/m³), and high (>1.25?kg/m³). USA and China are the only two countries that have consistently high CWP for wheat, corn, and rice. Australia and India have medium CWP for wheat and rice. India’s corn, however, has low CWP. Egypt, Turkey, Netherlands, Mexico, and Israel have high CWP for wheat. Romania, Argentina, and Hungary have high CWP for corn, and Philippines has high CWP for rice. All other countries have either low or medium CWP for all three crops. Based on data in this study, the highest consumers of water for crop production also have the most potential for water savings. These countries are USA, India, and China for wheat; USA, China, and Brazil for corn; India, China, and Pakistan for rice. For example, even just a 10% increase in CWP of wheat grown in India can save 6974 billion liters of water. This is equivalent to creating 6974 lakes each of 100?m³ in volume that leads to many benefits such as acting as ‘water banks’ for lean season, recreation, and numerous ecological services. This study establishes the volume of water that can be saved for each crop in each country when there is an increase in CWP by 10%, 20%, and 30%.     

Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Prediction of the consumption rates for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) on the scale of habitat patches: Development of empirical models based on stomach contents

Rivers and streams are unstable environments in which estimation of energetic costs and benefits of habitat utilization are the daunting exercise. Empirical models of food consumption may be used to estimate energetic benefits based on abiotic and biotic conditions in patches of habitat. We performed thirty daily surveys of fish stomach contents to estimate the consumption rates for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in a river. The data were used to assess whether variations of daily consumption rates existed within the river, and to develop empirical models that could predict fish consumption rates using abiotic and biotic conditions as independent variables. Daily consumption rates based on stomach content surveys in the field (range: 0.15–1.49 g dry/(100 g wet day)) varied significantly depending on habitat patch (500–1000 m²), summer period, and sampling year. Variables such as water temperature, numerical density of salmon, water depth and moon phase explained 83–93% of the variations in daily food consumption rates. Daily consumption rates tended to increase with water temperature and depth, and were also higher near a full moon. However, they tended to decrease with the numerical density of salmon. Our work suggests that empirical models based on independent variables that are relatively simple to estimate in the field may be developed to predict fish consumption rates in different habitat patches in a river.     

Projected climate change scenario over California by a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model system

This study examines a future climate change scenario over California in a 10-km coupled regional downscaling system of the Regional Spectral Model for the atmosphere and the Regional Ocean Modeling System for the ocean forced by the global Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3). In summer, the coupled and uncoupled downscaled experiments capture the warming trend of surface air temperature, consistent with the driving CCSM3 forcing. However, the surface warming change along the California coast is weaker in the coupled downscaled experiment than it is in the uncoupled downscaling. Atmospheric cooling due to upwelling along the coast commonly appears in both the present and future climates, but the effect of upwelling is not fully compensated for by the projected large-scale warming in the coupled downscaling experiment. The projected change of extreme warm events is quite different between the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments, with the former projecting a more moderate change. The projected future change in precipitation is not significantly different between coupled and uncoupled downscaling. Both the coupled and uncoupled downscaling integrations predict increased onshore sea breeze change in summer daytime and reduced offshore land breeze change in summer nighttime along the coast from the Bay area to Point Conception. Compared to the simulation of present climate, the coupled and uncoupled downscaling experiments predict 17.5 % and 27.5 % fewer Catalina eddy hours in future climate respectively.     

Geochemistry, Geochronology and Isotopic Evolution of the Chewore-Rufunsa Terrane, Southern Irumide Belt: a Mesoproterozoic Continental Margin Arc

The southern Irumide Belt (SIB) is an ENE–WSW-trending,late Mesoproterozoic orogenic belt located between the Congo–Tanzania–Bangweulu(CTB) and Kalahari cratons in central southern Africa. It isseparated from the late Mesoproterozoic Irumide Belt (IB) tothe north by Permo-Triassic graben, raising the possibilitythat the younger rifts reactivated a suture between the twobelts that has been rendered cryptic as a result of youngerKaroo cover. Both belts are dominated by calc-alkaline gneisses,but in addition the SIB contains abundant metavolcanic and metasedimentaryrocks. In this study we present detailed geochemical, isotopicand geochronological data for volcanic and plutonic lithologiesfrom the southernmost part of the SIB, the Chewore–RufunsaTerrane. This terrane comprises a wide variety of supracrustalto mid-crustal rocks that have major- and trace-element compositionssimilar to magmas formed in present-day subduction zones. Chondrite-normalizedrare earth element (REE) profiles and whole-rock Sm–Ndisotope compositions indicate that the parental supra-subductionmelts interacted with, and were contaminated by sialic continentalcrust, implying a continental-margin-arc setting. Secondaryionization mass spectrometry dating of magmatic zircon has yieldedcrystallization ages between c. 1095 and 1040 Ma, similar toelsewhere in the SIB. U–Pb dating and in situ Lu–Hfisotopic analyses of abundant xenocrystic zircon extracted fromthe late Mesoproterozoic granitoids indicate that the contaminantcontinental basement was principally Palaeoproterozoic in ageand had a juvenile isotopic signature at the time of its formation.These data are in contrast to those for the IB, which is characterizedby younger, c. 1020 Ma, calc-alkaline gneisses that formed bythe direct recycling of Archaean crust without significant additionof any juvenile material. We suggest that the SIB developedby the subduction of oceanic crust under the margin of an unnamedcontinental mass until ocean closure at c. 1040 Ma. Subsequentcollision between the SIB and the CTB margin led to the cessationof magmatism in the SIB and the initiation of compression andcrustal melting in the IB. KEY WORDS: geochemistry; Mesoproterozoic; SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating; Sm–Nd isotopes; Southern Irumide Belt     

XFEM formulation with sub-interpolation,and equivalence to zero-thickness interface elements

This paper describes a particular formulation of the extended finite element method (XFEM) specifically conceived for application to existing discontinuities of fixed location, for instance, in geological media. The formulation is based on two nonstandard assumptions: (1) the use of sub-interpolation functions for each subdomain and (2) the use of fictitious displacement variables on the nodes across the discontinuity (instead of the more traditional jump variables). Thanks to the first of those assumptions, the proposed XFEM formulation may be shown to be equivalent to the standard finite element method with zero-thickness interface elements for the discontinuities (FEM+z). The said equivalence is theoretically proven for the case of quadrangular elements cut in two quadrangles by the discontinuity, and only approximate for other types of intersections of quadrangular or triangular elements, in which the XFEM formulation corresponds to a kinematically restricted version of the corresponding interface plus continuum scheme. The proposed XFEM formulation with sub-interpolation, also helps improving spurious oscillations of the results obtained with natural interpolation functions when the discontinuity runs skew to the mesh. A possible explanation for these oscillations is provided, which also explains the improvement observed with sub-interpolation. The paper also discusses the oscillations observed in the numerical results when some nodes are too close to the discontinuity and proposes the remedy of moving those nodes onto the discontinuity itself. All the aspects discussed are illustrated with some examples of application, the results of which are compared with closed-form analytical solutions or to existing XFEM results from the literature.     

Wavelet analyses of neural networks based river discharge decomposition

The problem of discharge forecasting using precipitation as input is still very active in Hydrology, and has a plethora of approaches to its solution. But, when the objective is to simulate discharge values without considering the phenomenology behind the processes involved, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN give good results. However, the question of how the black box internally solve this problem remains open. In this research, the classical rainfall-runoff problem is approached considering that the total discharge is a sum of components of the hydrological system, which from the ANN perspective is translated to the sum of three signals related to the fast, middle and slow flow. Thus, the present study has two aims (a) to study the time-frequency representation of discharge by an ANN hydrologic model and (b) to study the capabilities of ANN to additively decompose total river discharge. This study adds knowledge to the open problem of the physical interpretability of black-box models, which remains very limited. The results show that total discharge is adequately simulated in the time frequency domain, although less power spectrum is evident during the rainy seasons in the ANN model, due to fast flow underestimation. The wavelet spectrum of discharge represents well the slow, middle and fast flow components of the system with transit times of 256, 12–64 and 2–12 days, respectively. Interestingly, these transit times are remarkably similar to those of the soil water reservoirs of the studied system, a small headwater catchment in the tropical Andes. This result needs further research because it opens the possibility of determining MMT on a fraction of the cost of isotopic based methods. The cross-power spectrum indicates that the error in the simulated discharge is more related to the misrepresentation of the fast and the middle flow components, despite limitations in the recharge period of the slow flow component. With respect to the representation of individual signals of the slow, middle and fast flows components, the three neurons were uncapable to individually represent such flows. However, the combination of pairs of these signals resemble the dynamics and the spectral content of the aforementioned flows signals. These results show some evidence that signal processing techniques may be used to infer information about the hydrological functioning of a basin.