Calibration of regional pollen data to construct maps of former forest types in southern Sweden

A method was developed to construct maps of former forest types based on regional pollen data in southern Sweden. The considered species were Alnus, Betula, Carpinus, Corylus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Juniperus, Picea, Pinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Tilia and Ulmus. A network of 37 regional pollen sites with high data quality from lakes and peat deposits were selected from Sweden south of 60 ° N. Pollen percentage values were calculated and converted into estimates of tree composition. For controlling the reliability of the reconstruction, the estimates from the core-tops were compared with present day forest inventory data, and local pollen diagrams were compared with the regional pollen diagrams. An inverse distance weighted interpolation algorithm was used to generate maps for each tree species distribution at 2000 BP, 1500 BP, 1000 BP, 500 BP and 0 BP. A supervised classification routine was implemented to generate nine different forest types common to the five studied time intervals. The maps show that the amounts and patterns of distribution of the species and the forest types have varied in a significant but systematic manner through time. The changes are due to human activities, migrational patterns and changes in climate. These maps will be of value as a basis for future landscape planning, forestry and conservation of biodiversity.This is the 20th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

Sediment deposition in the flood plain of Stemple Creek Watershed, northern California

Over the past 150 years, major land use changes have occurred in the Stemple Creek Watershed in northern California that have caused erosion to move soils from the upland to the flood plain, stream channels, and the bay. The purpose of this study is to document the recent (1954 to present) sediment deposition patterns in the flood plain area adjacent to Stemple Creek using the ¹³⁷Cesium technique. Sediment deposition ranged from 0.26 to 1.84 cm year⁻¹ for the period from 1964 to 2002 with an average of 0.85±0.41 cm year⁻¹. Sediment deposition rates were higher for the 1954 to 1964 period with a range of 0.31–3.50 cm year⁻¹ and an average of 1.29±1.04 cm year⁻¹. These data indicate that sediment deposition in the flood plain has decreased since the middle 1950s, probably related to reduction in row crop agriculture and an increase in pasturelands. This study shows that the flood plains in the Stemple Creek Watershed are a significant sink for the soils being eroded from the upland area. Given the significance of the flood plain for trapping eroded materials before they reach the stream channels or the bay, efforts need to be made to manage these flood plain areas to insure that they do not change and become a source rather than a sink for eroded materials as improved management practices on the upland areas reduce sediment input to the flood plain.     

Current Convenience,Desperate Deforestation: Ghana's AdjustmentProgram and the Forestry Sector

Since the early 1980s, most Sub-Saharan African countries have resorted to structural adjustment programs to reform their ailing economies. Adjustment, however, may provide a convenient means for governments of the adjusting economies and international capital to meet their current economic and political interests, usually by sacrificing the physical environment, with huge environmental costs for the adjusting country. This paper uses Ghana's forestry sector, which has been characterized by a dramatic increase in woodexports since adjustment, to demonstrate a direct link between adjustment and environmental destruction. Ghana's dramatic increase in wood exports, involving a rapid and extensive deforestation, results from the government's need to meet its increasing external debt service obligations, and is exacerbated by the series of massive local currency devaluation required under adjustment “to get prices right.” The systematic reduction in government revenue from devaluation to amortize the increasing debts, keeps the government and indebted wood processing firms on a treadmill of export-based extraction/deforestation.     

Practical Incorporation of Multivariate Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Resource Modeling

There is a need to bridge theory and practice for incorporating parameter uncertainty in geostatistical simulation modeling workflows. Simulation workflows are a standard practice in natural resource and recovery modeling, but the incorporation of multivariate parameter uncertainty into those workflows is challenging. However, the objectives can be met without considerable extra effort and programming. The sampling distributions of statistics comprise the core theoretical notion with the addition of the spatial degrees of freedom to account for the redundancy in the spatially correlated data. Prior parameter uncertainty is estimated from multivariate spatial resampling. Simulation-based transfer of prior parameter uncertainty results in posterior distributions which are updated by data conditioning and the model domain extents and configuration. The results are theoretically tractable and practical to achieve, providing realistic assessments of uncertainty by accounting for large-scale parameter uncertainty, which is often the most important component impacting a project. A simulation-based multivariate workflow demonstrates joint modeling of intrinsic shale properties and uncertainty in estimated ultimate recovery in a shale gas project. The multivariate workflow accounts for joint prior parameter uncertainty given the current well locations and results in posterior estimates on global distributions of all modeled properties. This is achieved by transferring the joint prior parameter uncertainty through conditional simulations.     

Proton flux and radiation dose from galactic cosmic rays in the lunar regolith and implications for organic synthesis at the poles of the Moon and Mercury

Galactic cosmic rays are a potential energy source to stimulate organic synthesis from simple ices. The recent detection of organic molecules at the polar regions of the Moon by LCROSS (Colaprete, A. et al. [2010]. Science 330, 463–468, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1186986), and possibly at the poles of Mercury (Paige, D.A. et al. [2013]. Science 339, 300–303, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1231106), introduces the question of whether the organics were delivered by impact or formed in situ. Laboratory experiments show that high energy particles can cause organic production from simple ices. We use a Monte Carlo particle scattering code (MCNPX) to model and report the flux of GCR protons at the surface of the Moon and report radiation dose rates and absorbed doses at the Moon’s surface and with depth as a result of GCR protons and secondary particles, and apply scaling factors to account for contributions to dose from heavier ions. We compare our results with dose rate measurements by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) experiment on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (Schwadron, N.A. et al. [2012]. J. Geophys. Res. 117, E00H13, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JE003978) and find them in good agreement, indicating that MCNPX can be confidently applied to studies of radiation dose at and within the surface of the Moon. We use our dose rate calculations to conclude that organic synthesis is plausible well within the age of the lunar polar cold traps, and that organics detected at the poles of the Moon may have been produced in situ. Our dose rate calculations also indicate that galactic cosmic rays can induce organic synthesis within the estimated age of the dark deposits at the pole of Mercury that may contain organics.     

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation in serpentine-water and talc-water systems from 250 to 450 °C, 50 MPa

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation factors in the talc-water and serpentine-water systems have been determined by laboratory experiment from 250 to 450 °C at 50 MPa using the partial exchange technique. Talc was synthesized from brucite + quartz, resulting in nearly 100% exchange during reaction at 350 and 450 °C. For serpentine, D-H exchange was much more rapid than ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange when natural chrysotile fibers were employed in the initial charge. In experiments with lizardite as the starting charge, recrystallization to chrysotile enhanced the rate of ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange with the coexisting aqueous phase. Oxygen isotope fractionation factors in both the talc-water and serpentine-water systems decrease with increasing temperature and can be described from 250 to 450 °C by the relationships: 1000 ln  = 11.70 × 10⁶/T² − 25.49 × 10³/T + 12.48 and 1000 ln  = 3.49 × 10⁶/T² − 9.48 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Over the same temperature interval at 50 MPa, talc-water D-H fractionation is only weakly dependent on temperature, similar to brucite and chlorite, and can be described by the equation: 1000 ln = 10.88 × 10⁶/T² − 41.52 × 10³/T + 5.61 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Our D-H serpentine-water fractionation factors calibrated by experiment decrease with temperature and form a consistent trend with fractionation factors derived from lower temperature field calibrations. By regression of these data, we have refined and extended the D-H fractionation curve from 25 to 450 °C, 50 MPa as follows: 1000 ln  = 3.436 × 10⁶/T² − 34.736 × 10³/T + 21.67 where T is temperature in Kelvin. These new data should improve the application of D-H and ¹⁸O-¹⁶O isotopes to constrain the temperature and origin of hydrothermal fluids responsible for serpentine formation in a variety of geologic settings.     

Fire Severity,Water Repellency Characteristics and Hydrogeomorphological Changes Following the Christmas 2001 Sydney Forest Fires

Soil water repellency can enhance overland flow and erosion and may be altered by fire. The Christmas 2001 bushfires near Sydney allowed investigation of the relationship between fire severity, water repellency and hydrogeomorphological changes. For two sub-catchments with differences in fire severities in Nattai National Park, south-west of Sydney, this paper considers: (1) the links between fire severity based on SPOT image analysis and ground observation of fire severity and repellency; (2) the textural and organic/minerogenic characteristics of eroded sediment; and (3) erodibility, erosion and deposition of soils in both catchments. Ground surveys show that image analysis reflects well the degree of vegetation consumption by fire, but cannot adequately predict the degree of ground litter consumption, associated soil heating and repellency effects. Fire had varying effects on repellency, leaving it unchanged, destroying it or enhancing it, depending on the soil temperature reached. The main post-fire hydrogeomorphological changes have been widespread erosion and colluvial and alluvial deposition of topsoil in foot-slope locations and river systems, but only localised redistribution of the highly erodible, repellent sandy subsurface layer. The fire did not trigger major geomorphological change in the study area, but fires probably cause important topsoil and nutrient depletion and may also affect water quality.