Spatiotemporal variations in heat-related health risk in three Midwestern US cities between 1990 and 2010

Mortality from extreme heat is a leading cause of weather-related fatality, which is expected to increase in frequency with future climate scenarios. This study examines the spatiotemporal variations in heat-related health risk in three Midwestern cities in the USA between the years 1990 to 2010; cities include Chicago, Illinois, Indianapolis, IN and Dayton, OH. In order to examine these variations, we utilize the recently developed extreme heat vulnerability index (EHVI) that uses a principal components solution to vulnerability. The EHVI incorporates data from the US Decadal Census and remotely sensed variables to determine heat-related vulnerability at an intra-urban level (census block group). The results demonstrate significant spatiotemporal variations in heat health risk within the cities involved.     

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

Background  

Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.     

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750?C2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005?C2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ??best-estimate?? global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO₂ emissions), leading to CO₂ concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21^st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.     

Assessment of sacrificial anode impact by aluminum accumulation in mussel Mytilus edulis: a large-scale laboratory test

Since the early 1960s, the application of aluminum alloy sacrificial anodes to mitigate marine corrosion has been well known. The aim of this work was to study aluminum bioconcentration in Mytilus edulis by an in vitro test performed in two tanks: the first containing non-contaminated water (NCW) and the second containing aluminum-contaminated water (CW) (530 μg L⁻¹) released by sacrificial anode. The mussels were collected and examined over a period of 8 weeks. A comparison between the aluminum concentrations in the digestive glands of mussels from the CW and NCW tanks shows that the highest value (1700 mg/kg d.w.) was found in the CW mussels collected after 13 days. In NCW, the mean aluminum concentration in digestive glands during the test was 281 mg/kg d.w. The rapid concentration decrease in digestive glands is probably due to the inhibition of filtering activity due to valve closure at the high concentration as well as the induction of the detoxification response.     

Development and application of a physically based landscape water balance in the SWAT model

Watershed scale hydrological and biogeochemical models rely on the correct spatial‐temporal prediction of processes governing water and contaminant movement. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, one of the most commonly used watershed scale models, uses the popular curve number (CN) method to determine the respective amounts of infiltration and surface runoff. Although appropriate for flood forecasting in temperate climates, the CN method has been shown to be less than ideal in many situations (e.g. monsoonal climates and areas dominated by variable source area hydrology). The CN model is based on the assumption that there is a unique relationship between the average moisture content and the CN for all hydrologic response units (HRUs), and that the moisture content distribution is similar for each runoff event, which is not the case in many regions. Presented here is a physically based water balance that was coded in the SWAT model to replace the CN method of runoff generation. To compare this new water balance SWAT (SWAT‐WB) to the original CN‐based SWAT (SWAT‐CN), two watersheds were initialized; one in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and one in the Catskill Mountains of New York. In the Ethiopian watershed, streamflow predictions were better using SWAT‐WB than SWAT‐CN [Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0·79 and 0·67, respectively]. In the temperate Catskills, SWAT‐WB and SWAT‐CN predictions were approximately equivalent (NSE > 0·70). The spatial distribution of runoff‐generating areas differed greatly between the two models, with SWAT‐WB reflecting the topographical controls imposed on the model. Results show that a water balance provides results equal to or better than the CN, but with a more physically based approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainties in determining microbial biomass C using the chloroform fumigation–extraction method

We tested the accuracy of the chloroform fumigation–extraction method, which is commonly used to determine soil biomass C concentrations. Accurate and precise determination of total microbial biomass is important in order to characterize soil properties and to develop predictive metal transport models for soils. Two natural soils, and individual soil components, including silica sand, montmorillonite, kaolinite, a humic acid, and Bacillus subtilis bacterial cells, were fumigated for 24 h. Following the fumigation, C from fumigated and unfumigated samples was extracted using a 0.5 M K₂SO₄ solution. The difference between the C content in the fumigated and unfumigated samples ideally represents C due to biomass because the fumigation procedure should lyse cells and release biomass C. We observed increased C release upon fumigation for bacteria-only samples, confirming the ability of fumigation to lyse cells. There was no difference in extracted C concentration between fumigated and unfumigated samples of silica sand and of humic acid, confirming that the fumigation process does not introduce additional organic C to samples of these soil components. However, the fumigated clay samples both showed increased C release relative to the unfumigated controls, indicating that significant concentrations of the fumigant, chloroform, adsorbed onto the clay minerals studied here. Additionally, we found significant chloroform remaining in the extracts from two fumigated natural soils. Attempts to remove the chloroform from the soils or soil components prior to extraction by increasing the evacuation time, or to remove chloroform in the extracts by sparging them vigorously with nitrogen gas, both failed. This research reveals that chloroform gas may adsorb significantly to clays and the clay fraction of natural soils. Thus, the fumigation–extraction method must be corrected to account for the added chloroform C and accurately assess the concentration of biomass C in soils that contain significant concentrations of clays.     

Timescales and mechanisms of REE and Hf uptake in fossil bones

Rare earth element (REE) patterns of fossil bones and teeth are widely used as proxies for provenance, taphonomy, and palaeoenvironment. In order to investigate if fossil bones behave as closed systems over geologic time, REE profiles were analysed by LA-ICPMS along cross sections of 54 bones from various well-characterised and well-dated settings. These include terrestrial and marine diagenetic environments, covering Early Triassic to Holocene ages. In general, all fossil bones exhibit the highest REE concentrations at the outer rim, gradually decreasing by up to four orders of magnitude toward the inner bone cortex. Intra-bone REE concentration gradients decrease significantly from Quaternary via Tertiary to Mesozoic specimens, suggesting long term REE uptake and open system behaviour of fossil bone. This view is further corroborated by ¹⁷⁶Lu-¹⁷⁶Hf dating of selected samples, all yielding significantly younger ages than the known chronostratigraphic ages. Hence, there is clear evidence for long term open system behaviour of fossil bones with respect to REE, which is in marked contrast to currently accepted models suggesting that REE uptake is only early diagenetic. Although unexpected, statistically significant four to seven point isochrons are observed for four fossil dinosaur bone samples and one Upper Triassic Mastodonsaurus tooth with MSWDs ranging from 0.083 to 4.5. Notably, mobility of Lu alone cannot account for the observed age patterns. Assuming constant Lu uptake rates over time, the radiometric ages should only be as low as half of the chronostratigraphic age. However, a six-point isochron defined by subsamples of a single Upper Triassic Mastodonsaurus tooth yields an age of 65.2 ± 1.1 Ma (MSWD = 0.68), much younger than half of the stratigraphic age (ca. 234 Ma). Hence, Hf must also undergo late diagenetic exchange. Likely mechanisms to account for the presence of statistically meaningful isochrons as well as for the late diagenetic exchange of both REE and Hf are diffusion, adsorption, and dissolution-reprecipitation processes.     

Whole-watershed mercury balance at Sagehen Creek, Sierra Nevada, CA

Few data are available on mercury (Hg) dynamics at high-elevation mountain sites. In this project, a whole-watershed approach was used to quantify major fluxes and pools of Hg in Sagehen basin, a closed basin in the Sierra Nevada mountains in California. Over a period spanning 9 months (January-September 2009), we estimated wet deposition inputs to the watershed at 3.8 μg m⁻². Dry deposition added additional Hg in the range of 0.30-2.45 μg m⁻² during this time period, and was the dominant deposition process during summer time. Seasonal snowpack accounted for only half of the Hg deposited by wet deposition. We suggest that photo-induced reduction of Hg(II) in snow and subsequent volatilization was responsible for this loss. Thus, snowpacks in the Sierra Nevada mountains likely reduce the effective atmospheric mercury flux via wet deposition due to significant emission fluxes prior to snowmelt. As such, wet Hg deposition could be of lesser importance as a Hg source in snow-dominated systems. Finally, stream runoff collected at the outlet of the watershed could account for only 4% of total Hg wet deposition suggesting that a large fraction of mercury deposition was sequestered in the ecosystem, specifically in the soils.