Investigation of regional climate models’ internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain

Previous investigations on regional climate models’ (RCM) internal variability (IV) were limited owing to small ensembles, short simulations and small domains. The present work extends previous studies with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model over a large domain covering North America. The results show that the IV has no long-term tendency but rather fluctuates in time following the synoptic situation within the domain. The IV of mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) and screen temperature (ST) show a small annual cycle with larger values in spring, which differs from previous studies. For precipitation (PCP), the IV shows a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer, as previously reported. The 10-year climatology of the IV for MSLP and ST shows a well-defined spatial distribution with larger values in the northeast of the domain, near the outflow boundary. A comparison of the IV of MSLP and ST in summer with the transient-eddy variance reveals that the IV is close to its maximum in a small region near the outflow boundary. Same analysis for PCP in summer shows that the IV reaches its maximum in most parts of the domain, except for a small region on the western side near the inflow boundary. Finally, a comparison of the 10-year climate of each simulation of the ensemble showed that the IV may have a significant impact on the climatology of some variables.     

Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.     

Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Depositional ice nucleation on NX illite and mixtures of NX illite with organic acids

Mineral dust particles are known to be efficient ice nuclei in the atmosphere. Previous work has probed heterogeneous ice nucleation on various laboratory dust samples including Arizona Test Dust, kaolinite, montmorillonite, and illite as atmospheric dust surrogates. However, it has recently been suggested that NX illite may be a better representation of atmospheric dust. Hiranuma et al. (2015) performed a laboratory comparison for immersion ice nucleation on NX illite, but here we focus on depositional ice nucleation because of its importance in low temperature cirrus cloud formation. A Raman microscope setup was used to examine the ice-nucleating efficiency of NX illite. Organic coatings on the NX illite particles were also investigated using a mixture of 5 dicarboxylic acids (M5). The ratio of NX illite to M5 was varied from 1:10 to 100:1. It was found that NX illite efficiently nucleates ice with S_ice = 1.07 ± 0.01 at ?47 °C, with S_ice slightly increasing at lower temperatures. In contrast, pure M5 is a poorer ice nucleus with S_ice = 1.30 ± 0.02 at ?40 °C, relatively independent of temperature. Further, it was found that M5 coatings on the order of several monolayers thick hindered the ice nucleating ability of NX illite. Optical images suggest that at colder temperatures (< ?50 °C) 1:1 NX illite:M5 particles and pure M5 particles nucleate ice depositionally, while at warmer temperatures (> ?50 °C) subsaturated immersion ice nucleation dominates. These experiments suggest that mineral dust particles may become less active towards ice nucleation as they age in the atmosphere.     

Biomass burning in the tropical savannas of Ivory Coast: An overview of the field experiment Fire of Savannas (FOS/DECAFE 91)

FOS/DECAFE 91 (Fire of Savannas/Dynamique et Chimie Atmosphérique en Forêt Equatoriale) was the first multidisciplinary experiment organized in Africa to determine gas and aerosol emissions by prescribed savanna fires. The humid savanna of Lamto in Ivory Coast was chosen for its ecological characteristics representative of savannas with a high biomass density (900 g m^–2 dry matter). Moreover the vegetation and the climate of Lamto have been studied for more than twenty years. The emission ratios (X/CO₂) of the carbon compounds (CO₂, CO, NMHC, CH₄, PAH, organic acids and aerosols), nitrogen compounds (NO_x, N₂O, NH₃ and soluble aerosols) and sulfur compounds (SO₂, COS and aerosols) were experimentally determined by ground and aircraft measurements. To perform this experiment, 4 small plots (100×100 m) and 2 large areas (10×10 km) were prepared and burnt in January 1991 during the period of maximum occurrence of fires in this type of savanna. The detailed ecological study shows that the carbon content of the vegetation is constant within 1% (42 g C for 100 g of vegetal dry matter), the nitrogen content (0.29 g N for 100 g of dry matter) may vary by 10% and the sulfur content (0.05 g S/100 d.m.) by 20%. These variations of the biomass chemical content do not constitute an important factor in the variation of the gas and particle emission levels. With the emission ratios characteristic of humid savanna and flaming conditions (CO/CO₂ of 6.1% at the ground and 8% for airborne measurements), we propose a set of new emission factors, taking into account the burning efficiency which is about 80%: 74.4% of the carbon content of the savanna biomass is released to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂, 4.6% as CO, 0.2% as CH₄, 0.5% as NMHC and 0.7% as aerosols. 17.2% of the nitrogen content of the biomass is released as NO_x, 3.5% as N₂O, 0.6% as NH₃ and 0.5% as soluble aerosols.     

Community forest management in Mexico: carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation through rural development

Forest management is an important carbon mitigation strategy for developing countries. As demonstrated by the case of Mexico, community forest management is especially effective because it offers tangible local benefits while conserving forests and sequestering carbon. Community forestry receives minimal government support now, but the clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol could leverage additional resources to promote the approach in Mexico and elsewhere. We argue that adequately designed and implemented, community forestry management projects can avoid deforestation and restore forest cover and forest density. They comprise promising options for providing both carbon mitigation and sustainable rural development. These kinds of projects should be included in the CDM.