Determination of groundwater solute transport parameters in finite element modelling using tracer injection and withdrawal testing data

The groundwater tracer injection and withdrawal tests are often carried out for the determination of aquifer solute transport parameters. However, the parameter analyses encounter a great difficulty due to the radial flow nature and the variability of the temporal boundary conditions. An adaptive methodology for the determination of groundwater solute transport parameters using tracer injection and withdrawal test data had been developed and illustrated through an actual case. The methodology includes the treatment of the tracer boundary condition at the tracer injection well, the normalization of tracer concentration, the groundwater solute transport finite element modelling and the method of least squares to optimize the parameters. An application of this methodology was carried out in a field test in the South of Hanoi city. The tested aquifer is Pleistocene aquifer, which is a main aquifer and has been providing domestic water supply to the city since the French time. Effective porosity of 0.31, longitudinal dispersivity of 2.2 m, and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficients from D = 220 m²/d right outside the pumping well screen to D =15.8 m²/d right outside the tracer injection well screen have been obtained for the aquifer at the test site. The minimal sum of squares of the differences between the observed and model normalized tracer concentration is 0.00119, which is corresponding to the average absolute difference between observed and model normalized concentrations of 0.035 5 (while 1 is the worst and 0 is the best fit).     

Modes,hydrodynamic processes and ecological impacts exerted by river–groundwater transformation in Junggar Basin,China

The hydrodynamic processes and impacts exerted by river–groundwater transformation need to be studied at regional and catchment scale, especially with respect to diverse geology and lithology. This work adopted an integrated method to study four typical modes (characterized primarily by lithology, flow subsystems, and gaining/losing river status) and the associated hydrodynamic processes and ecological impacts in the southern part of Junggar Basin, China. River–groundwater transformation occurs one to four times along the basin route. For mode classification, such transformation occurs: once or twice, controlled by lithological factors (mode 1); twice, impacted by geomorphic features and lithological structures (mode 2); and three or four times, controlled by both geological and lithological structures (modes 3 and 4). Results also suggest: (1) there exist local and regional groundwater flow subsystems at ~400 m depth, which form a multistage nested groundwater flow system. The groundwater flow velocities are 0.1–1.0 and?<0.1 m/day for each of two subsystems; (2) the primary groundwater hydro-chemical type takes on apparent horizontal and vertical zoning characteristics, and the TDS of the groundwater evidently increases along the direction of groundwater flow, driven by hydrodynamic processes; (3) the streams, wetland and terminal lakes are the end-points of the local and regional groundwater flow systems. This work indicates that not only are groundwater and river water derived from the same source, but also hydrodynamic and hydro-chemical processes and ecological effects, as a whole in arid areas, are controlled by stream–groundwater transformation.     

Optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the republic of Korea using a scenario optimization model

【Title】

This study explores the optimal spatial allocation of initial attack resources for firefighting in the Republic of Korea. To improve the effectiveness of Korean initial attack resources with a range of policy goals, we create a scenario optimization model that minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a predefined response. In this study, the predefined response indicates the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at a fire before the fire escapes and becomes a large fire. We use spatially explicit GIS-based information on the ecology, fire behavior, and economic characterizations important in Korea. The data include historical fire events in the Republic of Korea from 1991 to 2007, suppression costs, and spatial information on forest fire extent. Interviews with forest managers inform the range of we address in the decision model. Based on the geographic data, we conduct a sensitivity analysis by varying the parameters systematically. Information on the relative importance of the components of the settings helps us to identify “rules of thumb” for initial attack resource allocations in particular ecological and policy settings.     

广州市室内地温的变化规律分析

对2012年2月—2014年2月间广州室内地温进行了分析,同时还分析了其与室外气温的相互关系,结果表明：室内日平均地温随月份的变化呈正弦曲线变化,并且其变化与室外平均气温的变化有很高的相关性,但室内地温的升降幅小于室外气温的升降幅,春夏季室外气温高于室内地温,而秋冬季节相反;室内地温的日较差通常很小,一般小于1℃;当室内地温日较差在1～2℃时,多是室外处于持续的升温或持续降温状态;当室内地温日较差大于2℃时,多是因受冷空气影响。有冷（暖）空气影响时,室内地温下降（上升）较室外气温有一定程度的滞后,室内地温下降（上升）幅度较小但保持一致下降（上升）趋势,二者日平均温度变化趋势较为一致。     

Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate prediction skill: part I. The leading forced mode of atmospheric circulation

Using observations and 1-month lead hindcast data from six coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models, this study investigates the interdecadal change in the leading maximum covariance analysis mode (MCA1) of atmospheric circulation in response to the changes in the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurred around late 1970s. We focus on boreal winter climate variability and predictability over the North Pacific–North American (NPNA) region using December–January–February prediction initiated from November 1st in the period of 1960–1980 (P1) and 1981–2001 (P2). Observed analysis reveals that ENSO variability, the related tropical convective activity, and thus the MCA1 are considerably enhanced from P1 to P2. As a result, surface climate anomalies over the NPNA are more significantly correlated with the MCA1 in P2 than P1, particularly over North America. The six coupled models and their multi-model ensemble not only are capable of capturing the interdecadal change of the MCA1 and its relationship with surface air temperature and precipitation over the NPNA regions but also have significantly higher forecast skills for the MCA1 and the surface climate anomalies in P2 than P1. However, models have systematic biases in the spatial distribution of the MCA1. It is demonstrated that the interdecadal change in the MCA1 should contribute to the improved forecast skill of the NPNA climate during recent epoch.     

集合数值预报在洪水预报中的应用进展

水文集合预报是近几年正在形成和发展的水文预报分支,其发展大致可分为两个阶段:第1阶段是1970年至20世纪末进行的长期径流预报,第2阶段从21世纪开始,主要学习气象数值预报中集合预报的概念在短期水文集合预报中的应用。目前,除了单一预报中心的集合预报系统在水文集合预报中应用外,多个预报中心的集合预报大集合也逐渐被应用于流域水文预报,甚至一些小流域的洪水预报。如利用TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)集合预报驱动形成的大气-水文-水力的串联系统进行早期的洪水预警研究,将全球集合预报作为洪水模型输入的有限区域模式的初始条件和侧边界条件的研究。这些均表明,基于水文集合预报的洪水预报增加了预报附加值,并能够延长预警提前时间。以欧洲中期天气预报中心的欧洲洪水预警系统(EFAS)和美国NOAA的先进水文预报系统(AHPS)为代表,实现了集合预报在洪水中的实时业务预报,但仍存在数据处理和计算量大,以及如何基于集合水文预报做决策等问题。对于水文集合预报的前处理和后处理的各种技术已处于探索和验证阶段,如何更好地理解基于概率预报的洪水预警决策仍存在许多困难和挑战。     

Origin and extent of fresh groundwater, salty paleowaters and recent saltwater intrusions in Red River flood plain aquifers, Vietnam

A model has been established on the origin and extent of fresh groundwater, salty paleowaters and saltwater from recent seawater intrusions in the Red River flood plain in Vietnam. This was done with geological observations, geophysical borehole logging and transient electromagnetic methods. Salt paleowater is present up to 50–75?km from the coastline, with occurrence controlled by the Holocene transgression. A density-driven leaching of salty porewater has occurred from high-permeability Holocene sediments into underlying Pleistocene deposits, whereas diffusion has dominated in low-permeability layers. In the Pleistocene aquifer, the highest content of dissolved solids is found below two intrinsic valleys with Holocene marine sediments and along the coastline. Recent intrusion of saltwater from the South China Sea is observed in shallow groundwater 35?km inland, probably a result of transport of salty water inland in rivers or leaching of paleowaters from very young near-coast marine sediments. The observed inverted salinity profile, with high saline water overlying fresher groundwater, has been formed due to the global eustatic sea-level changes during the last 8,000–9,000?years. The proposed model may therefore be applicable to other coastal aquifers, with a proper incorporation of the local geological environments.     

K-Ar Dating of Fault Gouges from the Red River Fault Zone of Vietnam

Constraining the timing of fault zone formation is fundamentally important in terms of geotectonics to understand structural evolution and brittle fault processes.This paper presents the first authigenic illite K-Ar age data from fault gouge samples collected from the Red River Shear Zone at Lao Cai province,Vietnam.The fault gouge samples were separated into three grain-size fractions(0.1 μm,0.1-0.4 μm and 0.4-1.0 μm).The results show that the K-Ar age values decrease from coarser to finer grain fractions(24.1 to 19.2 Ma),suggesting enrichment in finer fraction of morerecently grown authigenic illites.The timing of the fault movement are the lower intercept ages at 0%detrital illite(19.2 ± 0.92 Ma and 19.4 ± 0.49 Ma).In combination with previous geochronological data,this result indicates that the metamorphism of the Day Nui Con Voi(DNCV) metamorphic complex took place before ca.26.8 Ma.At about 26.8 Ma-25 Ma,the fault strongly acted to cause the rapid exhumation of the rocks along the Red River-Ailoa Shan Fault Zone(RR-ASFZ).During brittle deformation,the DNCV slowly uplifted,implying weak movement of the fault.This brittle deformation might have lasted for ca.5 Ma.