个旧锡矿高松矿田综合信息矿产预测

个旧超大型锡铜多金属矿床是我国和世界上重要的锡产地,近年来面临严重的资源危机。通过分析个旧锡矿高松矿田的地质、地球化学、地球物理等信息特征,用统计排序法和地质统计学方法解决了断裂、褶皱、地层、花岗岩等定性信息的量化、分级,用分维确定了考虑线性和面状因素的最佳信息单元大小,利用以Shannon信息论基本原理为基础的分层次自相似信息量加和法在信息类型内部和类型之间进行了信息的有机综合,得到了三级18个预测区,经云南锡业公司工程和已知矿区验证,取得了很好的效果。     

PM10 data assimilation over south Korea to Asian dust forecasting model with the optimal interpolation method

A data assimilation (DA) system using ground PM₁₀ observation for Asian Dust Aerosol Model version 2 (ADAM2), which is the operational dust forecasting model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been developed with the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The observations are provided by the PM₁₀ network operated by KMA. Three DA experiments are performed to simulate a dust event observed in Korea from 1 March to 31 May 2009 with different assimilation cycles of 24 (DA24), 12 (DA12), and 06 hours (DA06). 48-hour forecasts from the adjusted Initial Condition (IC) of dust concentration are compared with control simulation (CTL) and observation from independent stations. It is found that CTL simulates spatial patterns of dust emitted and transported associated with a developing low pressure system over the dust source regions quite well, compared with satellite measurement. However, it appears that there is considerable uncertainty in estimating the concentration of dust. With IC adjustment, the model simulates improved dust concentration, showing considerably reduced RMSE, particularly for the prediction within 12 hours of forecast. At the same time, it is shown that the time interval of DA affects the predictability of ADAM2, so that DA06 appears to have better predictability within a 12-hour simulation, reducing RMSE by 50% compared with CTL. This suggests that assimilating PM₁₀ to the dust prediction model using OI has the potential to predict air quality in Korea when the cycle of assimilation is sufficiently short.     

Carbon pools and fluxes in the China Seas and adjacent oceans

The China Seas include the South China Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea. Located off the Northwestern Pacific margin, covering 4700000 km~2 from tropical to northern temperate zones, and including a variety of continental margins/basins and depths, the China Seas provide typical cases for carbon budget studies. The South China Sea being a deep basin and part of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is characterized by oceanic features; the East China Sea with a wide continental shelf, enormous terrestrial discharges and open margins to the West Pacific, is featured by strong cross-shelf materials transport; the Yellow Sea is featured by the confluence of cold and warm waters; and the Bohai Sea is a shallow semiclosed gulf with strong impacts of human activities. Three large rivers, the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Pearl River, flow into the East China Sea, the Bohai Sea, and the South China Sea, respectively. The Kuroshio Current at the outer margin of the Chinese continental shelf is one of the two major western boundary currents of the world oceans and its strength and position directly affect the regional climate of China. These characteristics make the China Seas a typical case of marginal seas to study carbon storage and fluxes. This paper systematically analyzes the literature data on the carbon pools and fluxes of the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, including different interfaces(land-sea, sea-air, sediment-water, and marginal sea-open ocean) and different ecosystems(mangroves, wetland, seagrass beds, macroalgae mariculture, coral reefs, euphotic zones, and water column). Among the four seas, the Bohai Sea and South China Sea are acting as CO_2 sources, releasing about0.22 and 13.86–33.60 Tg C yr~(-1) into the atmosphere, respectively, whereas the Yellow Sea and East China Sea are acting as carbon sinks, absorbing about 1.15 and 6.92–23.30 Tg C yr~(-1) of atmospheric CO_2, respectively. Overall, if only the CO_2 exchange at the sea-air interface is considered, the Chinese marginal seas appear to be a source of atmospheric CO_2, with a net release of 6.01–9.33 Tg C yr~(-1), mainly from the inputs of rivers and adjacent oceans. The riverine dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) input into the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 5.04, 14.60, and 40.14 Tg C yr~(-1),respectively. The DIC input from adjacent oceans is as high as 144.81 Tg C yr~(-1), significantly exceeding the carbon released from the seas to the atmosphere. In terms of output, the depositional fluxes of organic carbon in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea are 2.00, 3.60, 7.40, and 5.92 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The fluxes of organic carbon from the East China Sea and South China Sea to the adjacent oceans are 15.25–36.70 and 43.93 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. The annual carbon storage of mangroves, wetlands, and seagrass in Chinese coastal waters is 0.36–1.75 Tg C yr~(-1), with a dissolved organic carbon(DOC) output from seagrass beds of up to 0.59 Tg C yr~(-1). Removable organic carbon flux by Chinese macroalgae mariculture account for 0.68 Tg C yr~(-1) and the associated POC depositional and DOC releasing fluxes are 0.14 and 0.82 Tg C yr~(-1), respectively. Thus, in total, the annual output of organic carbon, which is mainly DOC, in the China Seas is 81.72–104.56 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the East China Sea to the adjacent oceans is 15.00–35.00 Tg C yr~(-1). The DOC efflux from the South China Sea is 31.39 Tg C yr~(-1). Although the marginal China Seas seem to be a source of atmospheric CO_2 based on the CO_2 flux at the sea-air interface, the combined effects of the riverine input in the area, oceanic input, depositional export,and microbial carbon pump(DOC conversion and output) indicate that the China Seas represent an important carbon storage area.     

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.     

西秦岭甘南地区上二叠统毛毛隆组古环境演变:基于遗迹网络分析

西秦岭地区是二叠系—三叠系之交深水相保存较为连续的地区,西秦岭甘南地区上二叠统毛毛隆组发育丰富的遗迹化石(12属17种)。遗迹网络分析作为新兴的研究方法,侧重于用相互连接的遗迹分类群来重建遗迹群落系统,这为研究遗迹群落的行为学和生态学提供了丰富的手段。笔者以西秦岭甘南地区上二叠统毛毛隆组发现的遗迹化石为数据源,运用遗迹网络分析方法,揭示出毛毛隆组遗迹群落具结构化特征,遗迹群落体现出环境驱动的遗迹组合面貌特征: Palaeophycus-Lockeia-Arenicolites-Dictyodora-Planolites-Protovirgularia-Chondrites组合(C1,近源浊流区),Palaeophycus-Lockeia-Arenicolites-Dictyodora-Protovirgularia-Phycodes-Chondrites-Helminthopsis组合(C2,浊流过渡区—浊流远源区),和Palaeophycus-Nereites-Scolicia-Protovirgularia-Helminthopsis组合(C3,远源浊流区)。该遗迹群落由C1演变至C3的过程,揭示了古环境从近源浊流区至远源浊流区的演变历程。     

富营养化湖泊蓝藻—芦苇碎屑堆积分解过程及其潜在的共代谢效应

为探究富营养化浅水湖泊所富集的有机物对湖泊碳循环和水质的影响,本研究构建微宇宙系统,模拟蓝藻和芦苇碎屑单独分解及混合分解过程.通过测定各组上覆水营养盐浓度、有机质含量及结构的变化,揭示富营养化湖泊藻草残体混合分解过程中养分和有机碳的释放特征.结果 表明,在实验0～88 h内,在添加相同的碳源条件下,蓝藻和芦苇混合处理组...     

Locally weighted learning based hybrid intelligence models for groundwater potential mapping and modeling: A case study at Gia Lai province,Vietnam

The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam. In this article, we proposed new machine learning ensemble techniques namely Ada Boost ensemble(ABLWL), Bagging ensemble(BLWL), Multi Boost ensemble(MBLWL),Rotation Forest ensemble(RFLWL) with Locally Weighted Learning(LWL) algorithm as a base classifier to build the groundwater potential map of Gia Lai province in Vietnam. For this study, eleven conditioning factors(aspect, altitude, curvature, slope, Stream Transport Index(STI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), soil, geology,river density, rainfall, land-use) and 134 wells yield data was used to create training(70%) and testing(30%)datasets for the development and validation of the models. Several statistical indices were used namely Positive Predictive Value(PPV), Negative Predictive Value(NPV), Sensitivity(SST), Specificity(SPF), Accuracy(ACC),Kappa, and Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC) curve to validate and compare performance of models. Results show that performance of all the models is good to very good(AUC: 0.75 to 0.829) but the ABLWL model with AUC = 0.89 is the best. All the models applied in this study can support decision-makers to streamline the management of the groundwater and to develop economy not only of specific territories but also in other regions across the world with minor changes of the input parameters.     

Anisotropic porothermoelastic solution and hydro‐thermal effects on fracture width in hydraulic fracturing

In this study, the effects of the temperature difference between hydraulic fracturing fluid and rock formation on the time‐dependent evolution of fracture width were investigated using a newly derived one‐dimensional anisotropic porothermoelastic analytical solution. The solution is shown to correctly reproduce existing solutions for special cases and corrections for an earlier publication are provided. An analysis of time‐dependent fracture width evolution using Woodford Shale data was also presented. It was found that when the fracturing fluid has the same temperature as the shale formation, the fracture gradually closes back after the initial opening due to the invasion of the fracturing fluid. Practically, in this scenario, proppants should be pumped into the fracture as soon as possible to obtain maximum fracture conductivity. On the other hand, with a fracturing fluid 60 °C colder than the formation, the thermal contraction of the rock dominates the fracture aperture evolution, resulting in a fracture aperture approximately 70% larger than that produced by the hotter fracturing fluid. Consequently, in this case, it is beneficial to delay proppant placement to take advantage of the widening fractures. Finally, it was found that the fracture aperture is directly controlled by the spacing of natural fractures. Therefore, the presence of natural fractures in the shale formation and their spacing influence not only the type of hydraulic fractures created but also what kind and size of proppants should be used to keep them open. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A novel computational approach for large deformation and post‐failure analyses of segmental retaining wall systems

Segmental retaining wall (SRW) systems are commonly used in geotechnical practice to stabilize cut and fill slopes. Because of their flexibility, these systems can tolerate minor movements and settlements without incurring damage or crack. Despite these advantages, very few numerical studies of large deformations and post‐failure behavior of SRW systems are found in the current literature. Traditional numerical methods, such as the finite element method, suffer from mesh entanglement, thus are unable to simulate large deformations and flexible behavior of retaining wall blocks in SRW systems. To overcome the above limitations, a novel computational framework based on the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method was developed to simulate large deformations and post‐failure behavior of soils and retaining wall blocks in SRW systems. The proposed numerical framework is a hybrid continuum/discontinuum approach that can model soil as an elasto‐plastic material and retaining wall blocks as independent rigid bodies associated with both translational and rotational degrees of freedom. A new contact model is proposed within the SPH framework to simulate the interaction between the soil and the blocks and between the blocks. As an application of the proposed numerical method, a two‐dimensional simulation of an SRW collapse was simulated and compared to experimental results conducted under the same conditions. The results showed that the proposed computational approach provided satisfactory agreement with the experiment. This suggests that the new framework is a promising numerical approach to model SRW systems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeo-hydrogeological control on groundwater As levels in Red River delta,Vietnam

To study the geological control on groundwater As concentrations in Red River delta, depth-specific groundwater sampling and geophysical logging in 11 monitoring wells was conducted along a 45 km transect across the southern and central part of the delta, and the literature on the Red River delta’s Quaternary geological development was reviewed. The water samples (n = 30) were analyzed for As, major ions, Fe²⁺, H₂S, NH₄, CH₄, δ¹⁸O and δD, and the geophysical log suite included natural gamma-ray, formation and fluid electrical conductivity. The SW part of the transect intersects deposits of grey estuarine clays and deltaic sands in a 15–20 km wide and 50–60 m deep Holocene incised valley. The NE part of the transect consists of 60–120 m of Pleistocene yellowish alluvial deposits underneath 10–30 m of estuarine clay overlain by a 10–20 m veneer of Holocene sediments. The distribution of δ¹⁸O-values (range −12.2‰ to −6.3‰) and hydraulic head in the sample wells indicate that the estuarine clay units divide the flow system into an upper Holocene aquifer and a lower Pleistocene aquifer. The groundwater samples were all anoxic, and contained Fe²⁺ (0.03–2.0 mM), Mn (0.7–320 μM), SO₄ (<2.1 μM–0.75 mM), H₂S (<0.1–7.0 μM), NH₄ (0.03–4.4 mM), and CH₄ (0.08–14.5 mM). Generally, higher concentrations of NH₄ and CH₄ and low concentrations of SO₄ were found in the SW part of the transect, dominated by Holocene deposits, while the opposite was the case for the NE part of the transect. The distribution of the groundwater As concentration (<0.013–11.7 μM; median 0.12 μM (9 μg/L)) is related to the distribution of NH₄, CH₄ and SO₄. Low concentrations of As (?0.32 μM) were found in the Pleistocene aquifer, while the highest As concentrations were found in the Holocene aquifer. PHREEQC-2 speciation calculations indicated that Fe²⁺ and H₂S concentrations are controlled by equilibrium for disordered mackinawite and precipitation of siderite. An elevated groundwater salinity (Cl range 0.19–65.1 mM) was observed in both aquifers, and dominated in the deep aquifer. A negative correlation between aqueous As and an estimate of reduced SO₄ was observed, indicating that Fe sulphide precipitation poses a secondary control on the groundwater As concentration.