辽宁省夏季多模式降水预报检验及晴雨预报技术研究

利用辽宁省291个国家气象观测站的降水资料,对2019年夏季（6-9月）8种模式降水预报及中央气象台格点降水预报进行了检验评估和比较,并采用消空方法进行晴雨预报技术研究。结果表明：2019年,EC模式具有最优的暴雨预报性能,而日本模式暴雨TS评分最高;中尺度模式对于局地性暴雨和短时强降水具有较好的预报潜力,性能较好的是GRAPES_MESO模式和睿图东北3 km模式;全球模式对24 h暴雨的预报频率比实况偏低30%,3 h强降水则偏低60%,中尺度模式对24 h暴雨的预报频率比实况偏高30%,3 h强降水则偏低20%。由于对小量级降水存在较多空报,各模式原始预报的晴雨预报大多呈现空报偏多的情况;使用小量级降水剔除的消空策略能够明显提高晴雨准确率,消空之后EC模式具有最优的晴雨预报性能。分别使用24 h和3 h累计降水量优化消空策略,发现分别取1.0 mm和0.8 mm的阈值进行消空可以使24 h晴雨准确率提高15.58%,3 h晴雨准确率提高10%-30%。     

热带季节内振荡与影响广西的热带气旋生成发展的联系

利用1978-2013年美国NOAA逐候MJO指数和中国气象局上海台风研究所热带气旋资料,研究了MJO与影响广西热带气旋发生发展的联系。结果表明,当MJO处于非洲大陆和西印度洋时,热带气旋生成区域上空为异常东风带;而当MJO处于西太平洋时,热带气旋生成区域北侧为东风异常带、南侧为西风异常带,有利于季风槽或气旋性环流加强,导致影响广西热带气旋频数偏多。当MJO处于东印度洋时,南海上空风场存在明显的向南分量,热带气旋生成数少、位置偏南;而当MJO处于东太平洋时,热带西太平洋对流受到抑制,导致影响广西热带气旋偏少。     

Identification of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Song Hong (Red) and Song Da (Black) river basins of Vietnam

The concentration and distribution of U were measured in zircon samples separated from the streambed sediments collected at different sites along the rivers of northern Vietnam using semiconductor alpha spectrometry and alpha- and fission-track autoradiography. Based on the absolute U content and distribution, we distinguished two groups of zircon grains of different origin. Group 1 zircons have relatively low and uniform U contents ranging from 280 to 440 μg/g. Group 2 zircons are characterized by heterogeneous U distribution and U contents ranging from 490 to 2040μg/g. The determination of absolute alpha activity values and alpha spectrometric characteristics for a number of group 2 zircon grains indicated the presence of relatively short-lived alpha-emitters. These radionuclides are probably ²¹⁰Po, ²³²U, ²³⁶Pu, ²⁴¹Am, and ²⁴³Am, and all of them can originate exclusively from anthropogenic sources. A comparison of the observed alpha activity values for group 2 zircons with those of group 1 zircons and zircons separated from the suspended colloids in river water samples provided conclusive evidence for traces of anthropogenic radioactive contamination in the Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba, Viet Tri, and Hanoi streams flowing in the Song Hong (Red) and Song Da (Black) river basins of northern Vietnam and sourced in the southern regions of the neighboring state.     

Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

安徽淮北平原冬小麦气候适宜度分析及作物年景评估

选取安徽省淮北平原37个气象站1960-2016年逐日气象资料,构建气温、降水、日照及气候适宜度模型,分析气候变暖背景下冬小麦气候适宜度时空演变特征,揭示冬小麦生育期气候风险,评判农业气候年景。结果表明：淮北平原冬小麦不同生育期对气候因子适宜程度不同,单要素各生育期适宜度均为灌浆-乳熟期较高,返青-拔节期较低,其中降水适宜度分蘖期最低;全生育期温度适宜度最高、日照适宜度次之、降水适宜度最低,水分是冬小麦生长的限制因子。气候综合适宜度灌浆-乳熟期最高,分蘖期降水适宜度最低,并且其序列变异系数大,常遭遇秋冬连旱,引起产量波动;全生育期气候适宜度呈东高西低分布,淮北中东部较高,而淮北西部及沿淮地区较低,冬小麦生产风险相对较高。1961-2016年全生育期温度适宜度线性增大趋势显著,降水适宜度线性趋势不明显,而日照适宜度呈显著的线性减小趋势;综合来看,全生育期气候适宜度无明显线性增减趋势,空间上淮北东部略有增大,而西部及沿淮地区略有减小,气候风险增加。淮北平原多数年份气候适宜度适中,适宜性偏差年发生概率高于偏好年。基于气候适宜度评判冬小麦气候年景等级,评估结果与实际产量增减情况基本相符,表明农业气候年景模型评估精度能满足业务服务需求,具有推广应用价值。     

Holocene estuarine sediments as a source of arsenic in Pleistocene groundwater in suburbs of Hanoi,Vietnam

Groundwater pollution by arsenic is a major health threat in suburban areas of Hanoi, Vietnam. The present study evaluates the effect of the sedimentary environments of the Pleistocene and Holocene deposits, and the recharge systems, on the groundwater arsenic pollution in Hanoi suburbs distant from the Red River. At two study sites (Linh Dam and Tai Mo communes), undisturbed soil cores identified a Pleistocene confined aquifer (PCA) and Holocene unconfined aquifer (HUA) as major aquifers, and Holocene estuarine and deltaic sediments as an aquitard layer between the two aquifers. The Holocene estuarine sediments (approximately 25–40 m depth, 9.6–4.8 cal ka BP) contained notably high concentrations of arsenic and organic matter, both likely to have been accumulated by mangroves during the Holocene sea-level highstand. The pore waters in these particular sediments exhibited elevated levels of arsenic and dissolved organic carbon. Arsenic in groundwater was higher in the PCA (25–94 μg/L) than in the HUA (5.2–42 μg/L), in both the monitoring wells and neighboring household tubewells. Elevated arsenic concentration in the PCA groundwater was likely due to vertical infiltration through the arsenic-rich and organic-matter-rich overlying Holocene estuarine sediments, caused by massive groundwater abstraction from the PCA. Countermeasures to prevent arsenic pollution of the PCA groundwater may include seeking alternative water resources, reducing water consumption, and/or appropriate choice of aquifers for groundwater supply.     

广州市室内地温的变化规律分析

对2012年2月—2014年2月间广州室内地温进行了分析,同时还分析了其与室外气温的相互关系,结果表明：室内日平均地温随月份的变化呈正弦曲线变化,并且其变化与室外平均气温的变化有很高的相关性,但室内地温的升降幅小于室外气温的升降幅,春夏季室外气温高于室内地温,而秋冬季节相反;室内地温的日较差通常很小,一般小于1℃;当室内地温日较差在1～2℃时,多是室外处于持续的升温或持续降温状态;当室内地温日较差大于2℃时,多是因受冷空气影响。有冷（暖）空气影响时,室内地温下降（上升）较室外气温有一定程度的滞后,室内地温下降（上升）幅度较小但保持一致下降（上升）趋势,二者日平均温度变化趋势较为一致。     

华南地区含硫化物金属矿山生态环境中的重金属元素地球化学迁移模型——重点对粤北大宝山铁铜多金属矿山的观察

粤北大宝山是华南金属成矿带的大型铁铜、铅、锌、钼等多金属综合性矿床,富含硫化物,位于北江支流横石河的上游分水岭,流域封闭性很好。矿山开发引起横石河下游的上坝村成为远近闻名的"癌症"村,部分村民出现"痛痛病"疑似症状。由于其特殊的地理位置和对下游引发的严重污染,该矿山成为研究湿热地区含硫化物金属矿山重金属元素生态-环境地球化学迁移的理想场所。以Zn为例,该矿山重金属元素从矿体中向生物体迁移过程经过尾砂/水反应界面、水/沉积物反应界面、土壤/间隙水溶液界面和土壤/植物界面4个重要的反应界面。其中,尾砂/水反应界面控制重金属从源头尾砂中的释放;水/沉积物反应界面控制重金属在水体中与河流沉积物的沉淀与释放的平衡;土壤/间隙水溶液界面控制土壤生物有效性;土壤/植物界面控制生物对重金属的吸收与利用。4个界面的介质间相互作用较好地刻画大宝山矿山因为开采,重金属元素从内生环境中曝露出来,然后在表生环境中释放、迁移、转化、归宿的迁移模式。上述认识对矿山重金属污染治理具有重要的指导意义。通过改变重金属迁移反应界面的条件,可以阻断矿山元素的迁移,达到污染治理的目的。     

8805号登陆台风特大暴雨的数值模拟

应用中尺度模式ＭＭ４,使用了一种简单的模式台风处理方法,成功地模拟了８８０５号台风登陆前后的演变及其伴随的特五暴雨过程,即对分析的台风中心物理量场进行修正而形成与实况极为一致的初值,以期能更好地模拟台风过程。从模拟结果可以看出,台风降水强度中心基本上是随台风登陆移动而变化的,每一时期的降水中心基本上与台风移动的路径一致或略偏前方,在登陆时的降水最大,这种降水变化与台风上升运动的烛一致的,上升运动越