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951.
Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents' safety, property, and lives, particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels. Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans. In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are two of the most important models among AI techniques. However, they have been scarcely utilised for surge level (SL) forecasting, and combinations of the two models are even rarer. This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information. The architectures of the CNN, LSTM, and two sequential techniques of combining the models (LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM) were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies. As a case study, 11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station, Hainan Province, China, were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models. The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the combined models outperformed the individual models (CNN and LSTM), mostly by 4%–6%. However, on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges, the accuracy was found to improve by over 10% at all forecasting steps. 相似文献
952.
Sloshing in a two-dimensional rectangular tank in horizontal motion is analysed based on the velocity potential theory. It is found that even when the first-order excitation is away from all the natural frequencies of the tank, second-order resonance can still occur when the sum-frequency or the difference-frequency is equal to one of the natural frequencies corresponding to the even mode. However, such resonance is not excited when the sum or difference frequency is equal to the natural frequency of an odd mode. 相似文献
953.
本文基于出露的前寒武纪变质岩系、中、新生代岩浆活动以及新生代玄武岩中上地幔包体的岩石学与地质压力计研究,结合地球物理测涤资料与高温高压下岩石中地震波传播速度的实验成果,提出了华北大陆三个地区(河北平原、太行-五台、鄂尔多斯)的地壳-上地幔岩石学结构,讨论了界面性质及其演化。在强调v_p、vb、σ结构与岩石学结构共同约束的基础上,有效地识别了不同地区硅铝质陆壳在物质组成上的差异和上地幔低速层或矿物相转变等特征。本文提出壳-幔岩石学结构及其演化,密切地与陆壳主要形成时期的太古-早元古构造岩浆事件相关,又与显生宙构造岩浆事件对它的改造程度有关,壳-幔岩石学结构是我们追索大陆的构造性质及其演化的一个重要记录和科学依据。 相似文献
954.
955.
文章研究关注了内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件的季节预测问题,在对大量降水观测资料、海温及大气环流场资料进行统计、分析、研究的基础上,确定了历史上58a(1960—2017年)内蒙古冬季极端多雪和少雪气候事件样本,通过对大气环流场的对比分析发现极端多雪或少雪冬季环流场特征显著不同,分析后确定了影响内蒙古冬季降雪的主要环流系统,包括西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、东亚大槽、环流E型及南方涛动等系统。同时,探索了对这些主要环流系统具有预测意义的来自海洋和大气场的预测信号,对预测信号关键区做了标准化定量提取,确定了预测信号综合指数分段判别阈值,给出了预测概念模型,取得了较好预测效果。 相似文献
956.
位于川西地区的奔子栏——唐克深地震测深剖面以NNE走向穿越松潘——甘孜造山带.根据人工地震记录分析得到的震相走时和相关的振幅信息,确定了该剖面二维P波地壳速度结构.剖面的地壳结构可分为5层,其中第1,2,3层为上地壳;第4,5层为下地壳.上地壳中部普遍存在低速异常带,但龙日坝以北,这一低速带与其上覆的低速基底合为一体.同时,沿剖面的地壳速度结构具有较强的横向变化.据此,可将剖面分为4段,即甘孜——理塘断裂以南、甘孜——理塘断裂至鲜水河断裂、鲜水河断裂至龙日坝断裂和龙日坝断裂以北. 这与区域构造划分基本一致. 地壳厚度沿测线从南西向北东逐渐减薄,即从金沙江畔的62 km减小到黄河附近的52 km. 根据PmP震相分析,莫霍界面深度在鲜水河断裂两侧没有明显变化.全剖面的地壳平均速度较低,为6.30 km/s.奔子栏——唐克剖面揭示了该地区的造山带型地壳上地幔结构特征.鲜水河断裂带位于剖面的中部,该地区的上地壳速度为正异常,而下地壳和上地幔顶部存在负异常.笔者认为,这是一类有利于强震孕育和发生的深部构造环境. 相似文献
957.
958.
The pyroxenite xenoliths in the volcanic rocks of Hoh Xil consist of clinopyroxenes and orthopyroxenes. The mineral composition of these pyroxenes is similar to that of mantle xenoliths including peridotite and pyroxenite from China and abroad, and different from that of granulites. The pyroxenes formed at 1101–1400°C (averaging 1250°C) and under 30–60 kb (averaging 46 kb). We deduced that the magma was derived from the mantle at a depth of more than 150 km, which fits in with the geophysical conclusion that the low-velocity layer existed in the mantle under 150 km.
相似文献959.
Coordinative similitude law considering fluid‐structure interaction for underwater shaking table tests 下载免费PDF全文
Generally, when a model is made of the same material as the prototype in shaking table tests, the equivalent material density of the scaled model is greater than that of the prototype because mass is added to the model to satisfy similitude criteria. When the water environment is modeled in underwater shaking table tests, however, it is difficult to change the density of water. The differences in the density similitude ratios of specimen materials and water can affect the similitude ratios of the hydrodynamic and wave forces with those of other forces. To solve this problem, a coordinative similitude law is proposed for underwater shaking table tests by adjusting the width of the upstream face of the model or the wave height in the model test to match the similitude ratios of hydrodynamic and wave forces with those of other forces. The designs of the similitude relations were investigated for earthquake excitation, wave excitation, and combined earthquake and wave excitation conditions. Series of numerical simulations and underwater shaking table tests were performed to validate the proposed coordinative similitude law through a comparison of coordinative model and conventional model designed based on the coordinative similitude law and traditional artificial mass simulation, respectively. The results show that the relative error was less than 10% for the coordinative model, whereas it reached 80% for the conventional model. The coordinative similitude law can better reproduce the dynamic responses of the prototype, and thus, this similitude law can be used in underwater shaking table tests. 相似文献
960.
Many reinforced‐concrete frames collapse via a soft‐story mechanism during severe earthquakes. Such collapses are mainly attributed to concentrated deformation in a soft story. Deformation control is thus important in preventing collapse. The frame pin‐supported wall structure is a type of rocking structure that releases constraints at the bottom of the wall. Previous research has obtained good results for the deformation control of this type of structure. However, the interior forces and strength demands of the pin‐supported wall have not been systematically explored. In this paper, a distributed parameter model is developed to investigate the strength demand of the wall in a frame pin‐supported wall structure. In the model, the pin‐supported wall is simplified as a bending beam and the frame is simplified as a shear beam. The two beams are joined by distributed shear connectors, so that the shear force can be transferred at any location on the interface. The model can be solved using differential equations based on equilibrium and compatibility. The accuracy of the model is verified using SAP2000 (Computers and Structures Inc., Berkeley, CA, USA). Displacement distribution of the structure and distributions of the moment and shear force within the pin‐supported wall are obtained for two typical external force profiles. It is found that the pin‐supported wall can effectively reduce the drift concentration factor. Distributions of the displacement, moment, and shear force are closely correlated with the relative stiffness of the wall and frame. Finally, recommendations on the stiffness and strength of a pin‐supported wall are made. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献