多时相MODIS指数提取东北三省水稻种植面积

为准确提取水稻面积,以东北为研究区域,采用多时相16d合成MODIS增强型植被指数数据和8d合成MODIS地表反射率数据提取水稻种植分布。选取水稻代表样点利用IDL编程提取物候曲线,利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)将水稻与其他明显地类区分,然后建立水稻增强型植被指数(EVI)、地表水体指数(LSWI)之间的相关关系,结合最新2015年土地利用数据提取东北三省2015年水稻种植面积。同时运用运筹学理论建立省级尺度水稻判别条件最优化模型,分析其在空间分布上的差异性和相关性,并将结果与统计年鉴进行对比分析,分析表明MODIS数据适合大区域省级范围水稻面积的提取,精度可达90%以上。由此得出,MODIS数据在省级尺度提取水稻种植面积上有着较大的优势。     

贵阳市空气质量预报方法与效果检验

2012年环境保护部发布的《环境空气质量标准》实施后,贵阳市空气质量状况发生了变化。利用贵阳市空气质量指数和常规气象要素等资料,分析空气质量特征及其与气象要素的关系,通过多元线性逐步回归和BP神经网络方法,分季节建立空气质量指数预报模型,并同CUACE模式进行对比检验。结果表明:近3年贵阳市空气质量状况良好,优良天数增多,污染天数减少且污染天气多出现在冬季,首要污染物为PM_2.5、PM₁₀和O_3;各季相关因子不同,但主要与相对湿度和风速有关;两种模型预报效果均表现为夏季评价最高,等级TS评分超过85%,指数准确率近99%,冬季预报效果相对最差,TS评分接近或达到70%,指数准确率超过或接近80%,而春、秋季效果指标差距不大;对2015—2016年AQI的预报效果回归模型的优于CUACE模式的,TS评分和预报准确率分别相差16.2%和20.0%。     

北黄海盆地东部坳陷下白垩统砂岩成岩作用及其储层意义

通过对取芯井砂岩镜下特征及孔隙度渗透率变化的分析,研究了北黄海盆地东部坳陷下白垩统砂岩的成岩作用及其储层意义。结果显示,储层砂岩类型以长石砂岩、长石石英砂岩和岩屑石英砂岩为主,处于中成岩作用阶段的A亚期末期至B亚期早期。主要的成岩作用类型有压实作用、压溶作用、胶结作用、交代作用、蚀变作用、溶蚀作用和重结晶作用,主要孔隙类型有粒间孔隙、粒内孔隙、填隙物内孔隙和次生裂缝。长石砂岩是主要储层。压实作用、压溶作用、胶结作用和重结晶作用使砂岩孔隙度减小,降低了储层物性,起到破坏性作用;交代作用、蚀变作用和溶蚀作用使砂岩孔隙度增大,改善了储层物性,起到建设性作用。孔隙度和渗透率整体上由浅变深而呈现由大到小趋势,在深度为3 000~3 020 m和3 140~3 250 m时出现异常高值,孔隙度与渗透率的异常高值带是次生孔隙发育带。     

Thermal behavior of ferric selenite hydrates (Fe2(SeO3)3·3H2O,Fe2(SeO3)3·5H2O) and the water content in the natural ferric selenite mandarinoite

Any progress in our understanding of low-temperature mineral assemblages and of quantitative physico-chemical modeling of stability conditions of mineral phases, especially those containing toxic elements like selenium, strongly depends on the knowledge of structural and thermodynamic properties of coexisting mineral phases. Interrelation of crystal chemistry/structure and thermodynamic properties of selenium-containing minerals is not systematically studied so far and thus any essential generalization might be difficult, inaccurate or even impossible and erroneous. Disagreement even exists regarding the crystal chemistry of some natural and synthetic selenium-containing phases. Hence, a systematic study was performed by synthesizing ferric selenite hydrates and subsequent thermal analysis to examine the thermal stability of synthetic analogues of the natural hydrous ferric selenite mandarinoite and its dehydration and dissociation to unravel controversial issues regarding the crystal chemistry. Dehydration of synthesized analogues of mandarinoite starts at 56–87?°C and ends at 226–237?°C. The dehydration happens in two stages and two possible schemes of dehydration exist: (a) mandarinoite loses three molecules of water in the first stage of the dehydration (up to 180?°C) and the remaining two molecules of water will be lost in the second stage (>180?°C) or (b) four molecules of water will be lost in the first stage up to 180?°C and the last molecule of water will be lost at a temperature above 180?°C. Based on XRD measurements and thermal analyses we were able to deduce Fe₂(SeO₃)₃·(6-x)H₂O (x?=?0.0–1.0) as formula of the hydrous ferric selenite mandarinoite. The total amount of water apparently affects the crystallinity, and possibly the stability of crystals: the less the x value, the higher crystallinity could be expected.     

Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia)

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.     

冻结砂土体积变形影响因素的敏感性分析

为了分析三轴试验中冻土体积变形影响因素的敏感性,选定包括内因和外因在内的6种影响因素,选用青海省德令哈的砂土按照正交试验方案进行常规三轴试验,并采用灰色关联分析法对试验结果进行分析,给出各影响因素的敏感性排序。结果表明,在选定的6种影响因素中,含水率、加载速率及温度的敏感性超过70%,需重点考虑。在较小含水率条件下,冻结砂土先体缩再体胀,且应力峰值点和应变峰值点所对应的轴向应变基本一致,而在饱和条件下仅发生体积膨胀。加载速率对冻土的影响主要表现为对其力学特性和破坏形态的改变,随着加载速率的增加冻土的体缩量、切线模量和峰值强度增加,但峰值应变却表现为减小趋势,冻结砂土性质趋近脆性。土样温度降低,土颗粒间的黏结力增加,孔隙压力转变为有效应力,从而导致冻结砂土的强度增加、体积膨胀量增加。分析结果可为相关试验及工程优化设计提供一定的参考。     

Generation of stochastic earthquake ground motion in western Saudi Arabia as a first step in development of regional ground motion prediction model

Earthquake ground motion model is an essential part of seismic hazard assessment. The model consists in several empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are considered to be applicable to the given region. When the recorded ground motion data are scarce, numerical modeling of ground motion based on available seismological information is widely used. We describe results of stochastic simulation of ground motion acceleration records for western Saudi Arabia. The simulation was performed using the finite fault model and considering peak ground acceleration and amplitudes of spectral acceleration at natural frequencies 0.2 and 1.0 s. Based on the parameters of the input seismological model that were accepted in similar previous studies, we analyze influence of variations in the source factor (stress drop) and in the local attenuation and amplification factors (kappa value, crustal amplification). These characteristics of the model are considered as the major contributors to the ground motion variability. The results of our work show that distribution of simulated ground motion parameters versus magnitude and distance reveals an agreement with the GMPEs recently used in seismic hazard assessment for the region. Collection of credible information about seismic source, propagation path, and site attenuation parameters using the regional ground motion database would allow constraining the seismological model and developing regional GMPEs. The stochastic simulation based on regional seismological model may be applied for generation of ground motion time histories used for development of analytical fragility curves for typical constructions in the region.     

Editorial to “Heat Flow: Recent Advances”

International Journal of Earth Sciences -     

Grounding mobile policies: Ad hoc networks and the creative city in Bandung,Indonesia

This paper explores the ad hoc networks that form to move policies to new sites by examining the process through which the city of Bandung, Indonesia adopted a creative city policy. As revealed through the Bandung case, attention to the formation of these networks highlights the way that power operates within them, privileging certain ideas and structuring the ways in which information flows through their channels. This insight suggests that the concept of policy mobilities would be enriched by a closer attention to the way power is used to construct networks that promote specific policies and places as sites of ‘best practice’. Furthermore, this paper extends the concept of policy mobilities to a city ‘off the map’. In contrast to most existing policy mobilities research that tends to focus on the stable, large‐scale networks through which policies travel and on the high‐profile cities constructed as policy models, the case of Bandung provides a study of how policy mobilities may occur differently outside of its well‐established locations.     

环北极国家与地区的北极航道通行政策及其发展趋势分析

全球变暖加快了北冰洋融化的速度,从而使得北极航道全面开通的时间将比预期大大提前,北极航道的交通价值也日益凸显。在这种情况下,环北极国家与地区纷纷提出了对北极航道通行的政策和主张。中国虽不是环北极国家,但北极航道能缩短中国国际贸易的海运距离,节约货物海上运输的时间和成本,并降低传统航线的海盗和恐怖主义袭击风险,所以从维护中国在北极航道通行问题上的"潜在利益"的角度出发,中国应该加强对北极航道通行问题的关注。本文首先介绍了北极航道问题的由来,逐一阐述了俄罗斯、加拿大、美国和欧盟在北极航道通行问题上的政策和主张,最后分析了北极航道通行政策的发展趋势。