Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Experimental pressure solution compaction of synthetic halite/calcite aggregates

Experimental observations are reported of weakening of sediment-like aggregates by addition of hard particles. Sieved mixtures of calcite and halite grains are experimentally compacted in drained pressure cells in the presence of a saturated aqueous solution. The individual halite grains deform easily by pressure solution creep whereas calcite grains act as hard objects and resist compaction. The fastest rate of compaction of the mixed aggregate is not obtained for a 100% halite aggregate but for a content of halite grains between 45% and 75%. We propose that this unusual compaction behavior reflects the competition between two mechanisms at the grain scale: intergranular pressure solution at grain contacts and grain boundary healing between halite grains that prevent further compaction.     

Holocene-emerged notches and tectonic uplift along the Jalisco coast, Southwest Mexico

This paper presents the preliminary results from a study of Holocene-emerged shorelines, marine notches, and their tectonic implications along the Jalisco coast. The Pacific coast of Jalisco, SW Mexico, is an active tectonic margin. This coast has been the site of two of the largest earthquakes to occur in Mexico this century: the 1932 (Mw 8.2) Jalisco earthquake and the 1995 (Mw 8.0) Colima earthquake. Measurement and preliminary radiocarbon dating of emergent paleoshorelines along the Jalisco coast provide the first constraints upon the timing for tectonic uplift. Along this coastline, uplifted Holocene marine notches and wave-cut platforms occur at elevations ranging from ca. 1 to 4.5 m amsl. In situ intertidal organisms dated with radiocarbon, the first ever reported for the Jalisco area, provide preliminary results that record tectonic uplift during at least the past 1300 years BP at an average rate of about 3 mm/year. We propose a model in which coseismic subsidence produced by offshore earthquakes is rapidly recovered during the postseismic and interseismic periods. The long-term period is characterized by slow tectonic uplift of the Jalisco coast. We found no evidence of coastal interseismic and long-term subsidence along the Jalisco coast.     

潍坊"5.19"强对流天气过程分析

利用常规气象资料、T213实况分析资料、全国雷达拼图资料、济南多普勒雷达和潍坊本市雷达资料及自动站资料，对2003年5月19日一次强对流天气过程进行分析，结果表明，快速东移南下的横槽极其槽后的冷空气使不稳定层结加强，是触发此次对流发生的原因。而低层暖湿气流的存在为其发展提供了必要的动力和水汽条件。     

对工程勘察信息化的几点认识

从信息技术的角度看,工程勘察实际上是一种“信息获取、信息理解和信息应用”的过程。作为一项技术和服务,工程勘察的信息化应由工程勘察业务信息化和工程勘察管理信息化两方面组成。工程勘察信息化的作用包括信息化辅助业务和管理、信息化支撑业务和管理以及信息化提升业务和管理三个层次。当前,有必要对工程勘察企业信息化的模式、工程勘察业务信息化提升的方式和工程勘察信息化的标准化等问题做进一步研究,以推动工程勘察信息化向深度和广度发展。     

Martian Topography: Scaling, Craters, and High-Order Statistics

The high-order structure functions of Mars topography reveal three specific ranges of scales: (1) scaling range at small scales where the structure functions exhibit scaling behavior; (2) transition range where the structure functions continue to grow but do not reveal scaling; and (3) saturation range at large scales where the structure functions saturate. The scaling and saturation ranges are explored in detail in respect to scaling and intermittency. Analysis of the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data and computer simulations suggest that there are two potential contributors to the small-scale scaling: (i) scale-invariant surface formation; and (ii) effects of discrete morphological forms such as craters. The crater effect also provides an explanation for the large-scale intermittency revealed using the normalized structure functions within the saturation range, which cannot be explained by the ‘scale-invariant’ concept. Overall, the obtained results suggest that the “crater” contribution to the structure function behavior often dominates over the effect of the scale-invariant surface formation.     

Geologic and geochemical study of the Picacho gold mine, California: gold in a low-angle normal fault environment

The Picacho gold deposit, located in southeasternmost California, is a low-grade gold deposit in a nearly flat-lying denudational fault of regional extent and probable Oligocene age. The deposit is hosted by intensely fractured and faulted Mesozoic leucogranite and by chloritic augen gneiss and schist, and is overlain unconformably and in fault contact by unmineralized late Oligocene Quechan volcanic rocks. The deposit is structurally characterized by normal and normal-oblique faults of low to high dip at shallow depths in the mine, merging downward with a synchronous, low-dipping ore-stage extensional fault system (the Chocolate Mountains/Gatuna Fault) of probable Oligocene age in deeper portions of the deposit. The fault system was infiltrated during much of its active life by hot, dilute, highly exchanged meteoric water having temperatures of 170°–210° C, salinity <2 wt% NaCl equivalent and calculated δ¹⁸O_fluid between −2.6‰ and 5.2‰. This main-stage fluid precipitated quartz, pyrite, and specular hematite, accompanied by silicification and sericitization. Auriferous ore-stage pyrite was precipitated late in the fault evolution probably by mixing of reducing ore fluid with relatively oxidized main-stage fluid during regional Oligocene extension on the Chocolate Mountains/Gatuna Fault. The Picacho deposit is characterized by a gold–arsenic–antimony geochemical signature consistent with bisulfide complexing of gold in reducing fluid, in contrast with typical denudation fault-hosted base-metal-rich deposits associated with high-salinity fluids elsewhere in the southwestern United States. The deposit is overprinted by Miocene normal faults having a wide range of dips. These postore faults are associated with red earthy hematite precipitation, pyrite oxidation, and supergene enrichment of gold. Editorial handling: L. Meinert     

Probabilistic landslide susceptibility mapping in the Lai Chau province of Vietnam: focus on the relationship between tectonic fractures and landslides

This study evaluates the susceptibility of landslides in the Lai Chau province of Vietnam using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing data to focus on the relationship between tectonic fractures and landslides. Landslide locations were identified from aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographic, geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS data and image-processing techniques. A scheme of the tectonic fracturing of crust in the Lai Chau region was established. Lai Chau was identified as a region with many crustal fractures, where the grade of tectonic fracture is closely related to landslide occurrence. The influencing factors of landslide occurrence were: distance from a tectonic fracture, slope, aspect, curvature, soil, and vegetative land cover. Landslide prone areas were analyzed and mapped using the landslide occurrence factors employing the probability–frequency ratio model. The results of the analysis were verified using landslide location data and showed 83.47% prediction accuracy. That emphasized a strong relationship between the susceptibility map and the existing landslide location data. The results of this study can form a basis stable development and land use planning for the region.     

松花江上游地区汞污染的化学生态效应

采样分析了吉林省东部松花江上游金矿开采区及其附近水、土壤、动植物及河流沉积物样品中汞的含量，发现河流沉积物中汞的污染相当严重；受其影响当地的植物和两栖类动物——中国林蛙体内总汞和甲基汞含量也明显高于对照组。实验表明，林蛙内脏对汞的富集能力大于肌肉；秋季对汞的富集大于春季；河流沉积物中甲基汞的含量与林蛙体内甲基汞的含量有较好的正相关。汞污染的来源与区域内个体金矿的滥采滥排有直接关系，表明人类活动所产生的有毒重金属在地表过程中出现了化学生态效应。