Representing environments in flux: case studies from East Africa

The dominant view in the ecology and anthropology of the 1950s saw populations harmoniously interacting in self-regulating systems; climax forests and stable societies were the ruling hypotheses. Now, however, ecology and social sciences are investigating nature and culture in flux. The flux paradigms of nature and culture describe a human–ecological relationship that is non-equilibrial, historically contingent and constantly negotiated at both material and ideological levels by unequal actors. In this paper, we examine the effect of changing ecological and cultural paradigms on interpretations of environmental change in three areas of East Africa: the North Pare Mountains, Tanzania, the Mkomazi Game Reserve, Tanzania and the Tsavo National Park, Kenya. We explore how discursive and materialist approaches can complement one another, by expanding the domains of ecological inquiry and demanding that analysts cross-check their data for unquestioned assumptions regarding stability, variability and spatial and temporal scales. Rather than testing a ruling hypothesis, we suggest that ecologists and social scientists work with multiple hypotheses, with the aim of understanding the interplay between ecological, environmental and social influences.     

电子政务建设应注意军事应用的几个问题

电子政务的运行模式必将促使国防动员、军队决策指挥 ,以及战场信息应用等环节发生相应的变化。建设电子政务将促进国防动员工作规范化、制度化 ,将创造条件实现政府对军队的信息支援 ,将有利于未来战争数字战场环境建设。建设电子政务系统和“数字城市”、“数字省区”时 ,应结合国防动员和信息支援的问题从顶层构架 ,统盘考虑军事应用 ,同时制定法规和标准     

Impact of waves on the sea drag: measurements in the Baltic sea and a model interpretation

Measurements from the Baltic Sea and a wind-over-wave coupled model are used to study the wave impact on the sea drag. The study has been carried out for different wave conditions, namely a pure wind-sea, following-swell/ mixed sea and cross-swell/ mixed sea. Measurements reveal the fact that the sea drag is dependent on the sea-state. In stationary conditions and in the absence of severe cross-swell, swell reduces drag compared to wind-sea at the same wind speed. The cross-swell enhances the drag as compared to the following-swell case and the magnitude of the drag coefficient is increased with increasing the angle of swell propagation to the wind. It is shown that the agreement between the model results and measurements is good for pure wind-sea and stationary mixed-sea cases. Discrepancies occur at light winds, where most of the data represent pure swell conditions. During these pure swell conditions the data are characterized by a large variation of the drag coefficient. The variation is caused by mesoscale variability in the stress co-spectra, wind-cross-swell effects and nonstationarity in the wave and wind fields not represented in the model.     

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Experimental pressure solution compaction of synthetic halite/calcite aggregates

Experimental observations are reported of weakening of sediment-like aggregates by addition of hard particles. Sieved mixtures of calcite and halite grains are experimentally compacted in drained pressure cells in the presence of a saturated aqueous solution. The individual halite grains deform easily by pressure solution creep whereas calcite grains act as hard objects and resist compaction. The fastest rate of compaction of the mixed aggregate is not obtained for a 100% halite aggregate but for a content of halite grains between 45% and 75%. We propose that this unusual compaction behavior reflects the competition between two mechanisms at the grain scale: intergranular pressure solution at grain contacts and grain boundary healing between halite grains that prevent further compaction.     

Holocene-emerged notches and tectonic uplift along the Jalisco coast, Southwest Mexico

This paper presents the preliminary results from a study of Holocene-emerged shorelines, marine notches, and their tectonic implications along the Jalisco coast. The Pacific coast of Jalisco, SW Mexico, is an active tectonic margin. This coast has been the site of two of the largest earthquakes to occur in Mexico this century: the 1932 (Mw 8.2) Jalisco earthquake and the 1995 (Mw 8.0) Colima earthquake. Measurement and preliminary radiocarbon dating of emergent paleoshorelines along the Jalisco coast provide the first constraints upon the timing for tectonic uplift. Along this coastline, uplifted Holocene marine notches and wave-cut platforms occur at elevations ranging from ca. 1 to 4.5 m amsl. In situ intertidal organisms dated with radiocarbon, the first ever reported for the Jalisco area, provide preliminary results that record tectonic uplift during at least the past 1300 years BP at an average rate of about 3 mm/year. We propose a model in which coseismic subsidence produced by offshore earthquakes is rapidly recovered during the postseismic and interseismic periods. The long-term period is characterized by slow tectonic uplift of the Jalisco coast. We found no evidence of coastal interseismic and long-term subsidence along the Jalisco coast.     

潍坊"5.19"强对流天气过程分析

利用常规气象资料、T213实况分析资料、全国雷达拼图资料、济南多普勒雷达和潍坊本市雷达资料及自动站资料，对2003年5月19日一次强对流天气过程进行分析，结果表明，快速东移南下的横槽极其槽后的冷空气使不稳定层结加强，是触发此次对流发生的原因。而低层暖湿气流的存在为其发展提供了必要的动力和水汽条件。