中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a需求和排放预测

 近年来HFC-134a作为中国汽车空调行业CFC-12制冷剂最主要的替代品,其消费量增长迅速,是中国消费量最大的HFCs（氢氟烃类物质）。以2005年为基线,通过制冷剂替代、技术进步、熟练操作和政策控制等情景假设,预测了中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a的需求量及排放量。结果表明：到2010和2015年,汽车空调HFC-134a的消费量将分别接近2.0万和3.5万t,排放量将分别接近1.6万和3.0万t,约折合排放21.0 和39.0 Mt CO₂当量。上述排放相对基线情景（即维持当前政策措施和不开展回收活动）,2010年和2015年减排温室气体分别为6.7 和13.0 Mt CO₂当量。     

Climatic and biological simulations in a two-way coupled atmosphere–biosphere model (CABM)

Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

基于MODIS资料的贵州植被叶面积指数的时空变化及其对气候的响应

利用2000～2006年MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星遥感观测的植被叶面积指数月平均资料以及相应时段的月平均气温、降水的观测资料对贵州植被的时空变化进行了分析.结果表明贵州2000～2006年植被分布受水热条件控制表现出对气候因子不同的响应关系,其中对降水的响应关系比气温明显,特别是冬季和春季,而植被在夏季和秋季的分布主要受气温的制约,与降水的关系并不明显.从季节和年际尺度的时间变化角度而言,植被对气温的响应比对降水明显,季节变化和年际变化的相关系数分别为0.89和0.73(分别通过99.9%和95%信度检验).     

煤炭产业经济走势及煤炭企业对策研究

煤基固体废弃物的清洁利用是矿区生态建设亟待解决的问题,重金属的结构形态是煤基固废清洁利用的关键。以安徽淮南矿区潘一矿煤矸石、粉煤灰为研究对象,利用XRF、XRD、SEM和FTIR等微区方法对煤基固废进行表征分析,探讨其精细化学结构及重金属嵌布方式,并结合RAC(Risk Assessment Code)生态风险评价对重金属潜在风险进行评估。结果表明,煤矸石主要粒径以黏粒(0~5 μm)和粗粉砂(10~50 μm)为主,粒度不规则,空间分布间距较大,主要矿物为石英(SiO₂),IR谱线辅助验证了AlO₄和SiO₄的弯曲振动。粉煤灰粒径以粗粉砂(10~50 μm)和砂砾石(50~250 μm)为主,表面以球状包裹体和多孔颗粒组成,粒径大小不一,主要矿物相是莫来石(Al₆Si₂O₁₃),IR谱线发现其存在有机硅Si-O-Si对称伸缩和反对称伸缩。煤矸石中Ni、Pb以有机结合态和铁锰氧化物结合态为主,Cr、Cd、As的赋存形态主要是残渣态;粉煤灰中As主要以残渣态和有机结合态存在,其余重金属元素均以残渣态存在。RAC生态风险评价结果表明,煤矸石和粉煤灰中Cr、As属于低风险水平,其余重金属均无风险。研究结果对煤基固废资源化利用及矿区生态环境保护具有重要的现实意义。

     

煤炭革命新理念与煤炭科技发展构想

为探索采动影响下的断层活化突水机理,开展断层破碎岩体剪切变形与渗透性演化试验研究。基于流固耦合原理设计一套破碎岩体压剪渗流试验系统,实现破碎岩体剪切变形与渗流的耦合过程,开展多因素影响下的破碎岩体剪切−渗流耦合试验,获得连续剪切过程中颗粒级配和初始孔隙率对孔隙率和渗透性参量的影响规律。结果表明,连续剪切条件下,破碎岩体的渗透率和孔隙率变化过程大致相同,可分为3个阶段：缓慢增长阶段,破碎岩石颗粒由散乱状态向有序的组织结构调整;加速增长阶段,破碎岩石颗粒剪切膨胀;增速放缓阶段,破碎岩体颗粒的剪切变形在围压的约束下达到动态平衡。试样Talbot指数越小或初始孔隙率越大,渗透率和孔隙率敏感性越强,渗透率和孔隙率越大;非Darcy流β因子的演化规律与渗透率的演化规律相反。结合数值模拟发现,剪切作用下破碎岩体剪切带内岩石颗粒的运移是剪胀现象发生的主要原因,破碎岩体剪胀过程中颗粒的力链由随机分布向特定方向转化,表现为局部孔隙和孔喉的膨胀,是孔隙率和渗透率增加的主要原因。研究成果可为深部煤矿突水灾害机理揭示与灾害防治提供参考。

     

黑龙江省耕地非农化的空间格局与重心曲线分析

为了揭示耕地非农化的空间格局与重心曲线,为耕地资源保护和利用政策制定提供决策支撑,该文以黑龙江省1980、1990、2000、2010、2015年土地利用数据为基础,运用GIS空间分析方法,引入重心模型分析黑龙江省耕地非农化的空间格局及重心曲线。研究结果表明:1980—2015年黑龙江省耕地非农化发展不平衡,4个时期耕地非农化面积呈波动增长的趋势;耕地非农化等级空间分布特征明显,等级较高的城市集中分布在西部地区;耕地非农化速度等级的重心曲线在空间分布上,具有从中心向边缘延伸的特点;耕地非农化围绕中心地区进行,其空间扩散路径在图形上呈现出一个回旋状。